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Packers at Falcons
The Falcons will host the Packers as five-point favorites this Sunday afternoon. The game has a playoff-record Vegas total of 60 points. The Falcons are currently implied to score a slate-high 32.5 points, and the Packers are currently implied to score 27.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers continued to absolutely dominate last week, as he threw for 356 yards and two touchdowns during the Packers’ Divisional Round win over the Cowboys. He’s now thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in 12 of his last 13 games. This week he’ll take on a Falcons defense that he lit up during Week 8, as he threw four touchdowns and gained 286 total yards. As we discussed last week, Rodgers has played better at home than on the road in recent years, but he’s been better on the road as an underdog:
Per our Trends tool, Rodgers has posted a better average Plus/Minus with higher Consistency as an underdog on the road compared to a favorite over the past three seasons. He’ll also benefit from facing a suspect Falcons defense that allowed the second-most average fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Overall, the Falcons finished the season as the fourth-worst defense in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass. Rodgers is priced at $8,100 on DraftKings and has a position-high +5.55 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery scored two touchdowns and gained 81 total yards last week, although he continued to have a somewhat limited role in the offense. Overall, he’s averaged 13.75 touches per game since Week 15, and Aaron Ripkowski and Christine Michael have continued to spell Montgomery for portions of the game. Montgomery will look to make the most of his touches this week in a solid matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in DVOA against receiving running backs this season.
Montgomery didn’t play during the Packers’ Week 8 loss to the Falcons and Davante Adams took his place as the team’s receiving RB. Adams was fed the ball and converted his 14 targets into a 12-74-0 line. Montgomery’s seven targets last week were his most since Week 7, and the Packers could choose to once again attack the Falcons out of the backfield. He’s priced at $5,600 on DK with five Pro Trends and is the No. 1 rated RB in the Levitan Model.
RB – Christine Michael, Aaron Ripkowski, and James Starks
Michael and Ripkowski combined to touch the ball just four times last week. Starks is still in the concussion protocol. None of the Packers’ backup RBs should be considered fantasy options this week due to their minimal roles in the offense.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson (ribs) is considered “a longshot” to suit up Sunday. Be sure to monitor our News Feed throughout the week to keep an eye on the situation. If Nelson is ultimately able to suit up, he’ll have a great matchup against a Falcons defense that he balled out against earlier this season, as he converted his nine targets into a 4-94-1 line in Week 8. Nelson will also benefit from the absence of Desmond Trufant, the Falcons’ No. 1 cornerback, who played during the team’s first matchup this season. Still, it’s hard to trust Nelson outside of GPPs if he’s available, as there’s a very real possibility he could play limited snaps or be used as a decoy.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams sprained his ankle last week, but he’s expected to suit up for Sunday. He’s taken on an increased role in the playoffs with Nelson sidelined, as he’s been targeted 12 and 10 times over the past two weeks, respectively. Adams has historically thrived during his career when given a large role in the offense:
Per RotoViz, Adams has averaged an 8.33-87.5-0.33 line during his six games with 10-plus targets during his career. He’ll look to continue to make the most out of his opportunities, as his average of 0.29 fantasy points per snap is the 15th-best mark among all WRs with at least 50 targets since Week 7, per PFF. Adams is priced at $7,600 on FanDuel with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and his 23.5-point projected ceiling is the third-highest mark among all WRs.
WR – Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison
Both Cobb and Allison have taken on larger roles in recent weeks. Cobb has had seven-plus targets in consecutive games for the first time since Week 7, while Allison has averaged five targets per game since Week 16. With Adams (ankle) and Nelson (ribs) both dealing with injuries, Cobb and Allison will likely be Rodgers’ only two fully-healthy receivers this Sunday.
Per our Matchups tool, Allison is expected to draw the tougher matchup against Jalen Collins, PFF’s 17th-highest graded cornerback this season. Still, both receivers should have plenty of chances to make plays against a Falcons secondary that allowed 31 passing touchdowns this season – the fifth-most in the league. Cobb and Allison are priced at $5,900 and $3,800 on DK, respectively. Cobb’s +4.27 Projected Plus/Minus is the highest mark among all WRs this week.
TE – Jared Cook
It may have taken eight seasons, but it appears that Cook has finally fulfilled his potential as an uber-athletic field-stretching tight end. Either that, or Rodgers is just a genie who can turn anyone with a pulse into a productive receiver.
Whatever the case may be, Cook has essentially taken over as the offense’s No. 2 receiver with Nelson sidelined. He’s converted his 20 playoff targets (second-most on the team) into an 11-152-1 line and has been Rodgers’ primary downfield receiver. Cook’s playoff aDOT (average depth of target) is 15 yards – 2.3 yards higher than the next closest Packers receiver. He has a great matchup against a Falcons defense that allowed the sixth-most average fantasy points per game to TEs this season. Overall, PFF didn’t grade a Falcons safety within the top-25 overall safeties this season. Cook is priced at $6,400 on FD with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and has five Pro Trends.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Ryan enters this week’s NFC Championship game with perhaps the best matchup on paper among all quarterbacks. The Packers have allowed the most passing yards and third-most passing touchdowns this season to opposing QBs. Half of the quarterbacks they faced in the regular season have scored 20-plus DraftKings points, and they just allowed a 31.4-point outing to Dak Prescott in the Divisional Round. Ryan led all QBs in yards per attempt (9.3) while throwing the second-most passing touchdowns and reaching the 300-yard mark seven times in the regular season. Green Bay is allowing a hefty +4.10 Plus/Minus to opposing QBs, leaving him as a fantastic play in all contests.
RB – Devonta Freeman
We’ve seen Freeman evolve into a top-notch fantasy asset this season, averaging 17.6 touches per game and 16.1 FanDuel points per game. He’s often far exceeded his salary-based expectations:
Freeman scored both on the ground and through the air in his earlier Week 8 matchup with the Packers. The Falcons rank second in red-zone trips per game (4.1), providing plenty of opportunities for Freeman to reach paydirt. After scoring on the ground last week against the Seahawks, Freeman leads all running backs in total touchdowns at home (12) and has 10 Pro Trends on FD in his favor.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Coleman has been a boom-or-bust player for much of the season, but his recent play has provided some semblance of a floor to rely on. As noted by Evan Silva on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Coleman has had 12.5 touches over his last six games while scoring five touchdowns in his last five. The Packers have an average run defense — they rank 14th in DVOA — and Coleman’s speed makes him a threat to score every time he touches the ball. He’s priced at an affordable salary on both sites but may be better suited for FD given his 77 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Julio Jones
In last week’s matchup, Jones reaggravated his toe injury that held him out the final two games of the season. Head coach Dan Quinn said Julio could’ve returned at the end of last week’s game if necessary, but we’ll need to continue to monitor the status of Julio throughout the week to see if Atlanta places any limitations on him.
Julio has netted seven, nine, and eight targets after his return from injury, scoring in two of those three games. The Packers have allowed the most receiving yards and touchdowns to wideouts, and they yield the highest Plus/Minus to the position on both sites. Julio will likely be running most of his routes against LaDarius Gunter, who’s allowing 0.29 fantasy points per route defended and finished the season ranked as PFF’s 68th-ranked cornerback. If Julio doesn’t have any kind of snap limit this week, he has one of the highest ceilings of all wideouts.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Priced cheaper than Taylor Gabriel on both sites, Sanu draws an interesting matchup in the slot against Micah Hyde. Hyde has been even worse than Gunter, allowing 0.43 fantasy points per route defended and allowing big games to opposing slot receivers all season. Stefon Diggs (28.7 FD points), Cole Beasley (20.8), and Pierre Garcon (20.6) each found success against Hyde. Sanu fared quite well in their previous Week 8 matchup, netting a 9-84-1 stat line. Sanu is projected for 26-30 percent ownership on FD; he isn’t flying under the radar, but his price ($5,800) allows the flexibility to afford other studs to anchor your lineups.
WR – Taylor Gabriel
Gabriel’s been best utilized as a GPP option in lineups this season given his penchant for big plays and ability to find the end zone. Gabriel has scored in seven of his last nine games and draws the best individual matchup of the Falcons receivers. Damarious Randall has been a massive liability in coverage: He’s allowed 0.51 fantasy points per route defended while being targeted on a whopping 23 percent of his routes in coverage. Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will likely put Gabriel and Julio against Randall’s poor coverage, and they both have a chance to thrive if left one-on-one. Our Player Models have Gabriel with a 17.9-point projected ceiling on FD, where he leads all receivers in Upside.
WR – Aldrick Robinson and Justin Hardy
With only two games on this slate, it could pay to be contrarian. Robinson has four targets over his last three games but went off for a 4-111-0 explosion in Week 15. Over the Falcons’ last four games, only Freeman has more opportunities than Hardy inside the opponent’s 10-yard line (four). With limited options to pursue this week in GPPs, these could be the lower-owned type of options that could vault a lineup if either player scores.
TE – Austin Hooper and Levine Toilolo
While we haven’t been able to rely on Hooper for much of the season, he enters as a contrarian play given the few options available. Hooper caught five passes for 41 yards the last time these two teams squared off. The Packers have allowed the seventh-most receptions to opposing TEs this season but rank seventh in DVOA against the position. Toilolo could be another longshot play to pursue: He’s seen seven total targets over the last two weeks. He has a higher projected ceiling on DK than Hooper, but neither have an ownership percentage over five percent. They’re best both served as contrarian options to avoid the likely high ownership of Jared Cook (projected at 51-60 percent).
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
