The Briefest of Introductions
The NFL divisional playoffs are starting today. In the words of Han Solo, “I haven’t got time for anything else.”
Another Introduction
Last week, I wrote a piece on everything there is to know about the wild card weekend.
This current piece is basically the divisional version of last week’s post, except shorter — because “I haven’t got time . . .”
The 2016-17 NFL Divisional Playoffs
We have 14 years of data under the current format.
Here are the game for this year’s NFL divisional playoffs:
NFC
• Sat., 4:35 PM ET: No. 3 Seahawks (10-5-1) at No. 2 Falcons (11-5)
• Sun., 4:40 PM ET: No. 4 Packers (10-6) at No. 1 Cowboys (13-3)
AFC
• Sat., 8:15 PM ET: No. 4 Texans (9-7) at No. 1 Patriots (14-2)
• Sun., 8:20 PM ET: No. 3 Steelers (11-5) at No. 2 Chiefs (12-4)
Let’s get it on.
Wild Card Weekend: The Data
I’m about to drop some data on you like it’s hot.
Over/Under
Over the last 14 years, the average over/under for a wild card game has been 44.79 points. I’m looking at our Vegas page right now, and I see that the live over/under average for this weekend’s games is 48.25. Hot d*mn! We currently have two contests with game totals of 52 points. After the abomination that was last weekend, this weekend is likely to be good — even with the Houston Disasters in the slate.
Here’s the best part of the divisional playoffs: The average final game total has historically exceeded the Vegas over/under by 2.48 points. The over and under have each been hit exactly 50 percent of the time over the last 14 years — Vegas is good, and Vegas makes money — but when the over is hit it’s hit hard.
Yes, Ron, I know how that sounds.
Home/Road
Last weekend, we had a couple of games in which the road team had the superior record.
There’s none of that nonsense this week. Just based on how the NFL structures its playoffs, the divisional round is intended to give home-field advantage and a bye week to the better team. The NFL wants the better team in each matchup to advance to the conference championship.
While it’s theoretically possible that a visiting team in the divisional playoffs could have a better record than the home team, it’s never happened under the current format.
Given that the home team always has the superior record and is coming off a bye week, would you be surprised to learn that the home team is favored 96 percent of the time?
Division/Non-Division
Under the current four-division playoff format, we rarely get divisional matchups. It’s happened only five times.
Bottom line: 91.07 percent of the divisional playoff games feature non-divisional matchups. The nomenclature for this weekend is a little bit goofy, but whatever.
All four of this weekend’s games are non-divisional contests.
Sometimes, through sheer randomness, divisional playoff opponents have played each other previously during the regular season even though they’re not in the same division. It’s not common, but it’s also not uncommon. It happens.
This year, it’s the norm. All of these matchups are rematches:
NFC
• Week 6: Falcons at Seahawks – Seahawks win 26-24
• Week 6: Cowboys at Packers – Cowboys win 30-16
AFC
• Week 3: Texans at Patriots – Patriots win 27-0
• Week 4: Chiefs at Steelers – Steelers win 43-14
We shouldn’t put too much stock in the predictiveness of these previous games — but they still have significance.
For instance, we should keep in mind that, even though the Falcons are 5.5-point favorites, they’ve already lost to the Seahawks once this year. We should note that the Cowboys this season have already beaten the Packers by 14 points — and that was on the road. We should remember that the Pats at home have already dominated the Texans by more than ‘only’ 15 points. And we shouldn’t forget that the Steelers, though underdogs now, have already rocked the Chiefs by a margin of 29 points.
Again, we shouldn’t read too much into four random non-divisional games that occurred in the first half of the season — but that those games were played means that this weekend’s contests will feature teams that are somewhat familiar with each other.
Thus, this weekend’s four games in quality are on the spectrum between divisional and non-division matchups. They’re not divisional games: The teams aren’t familiar with each other the way division rivals are. They don’t hate each other the way division rivals do.
But these games also aren’t ‘pure’ non-divisional games. After this weekend, the Falcons will have played the Seahawks the same number of times they’ve played the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers this season — and if they lose then Falcons fans might hate the Seahawks more than they hate any NFC South team: The Seahawks would be the only team to have beaten the Falcons twice this year.
So these aren’t divisional games — but they could be rivalry games in formation. After all, it was just two years ago that the Packers hosted the Cowboys in the divisional round, defeating them in the final minutes on a ‘non-catch’ by Dez Bryant. If the Packers beat the Cowboys in the divisional playoffs this year, they’ll probably be as hated in Dallas as any non-NFC East team can be.
Non-Divisional Home Favorites
Over the last 14 years, 49 of the 56 divisional playoff games have featured a non-divisional home favorite. That’s what we have this year.
In this situation, the home team has historically won 12.7 games in the regular season; the visiting team, 10.1. The over/under has been exceeded by an average of 2.70 points. The over has been hit 51.0 percent of the time.
The spread has been an average of 6.61 points. The home team has been implied to score 25.72 points; the road team, only 19.11. The home team has exceeded the Vegas total by 1.32 points, hitting its implied total ‘only’ 49.0 percent of the time. Here we have a divergence of averages and frequencies in NFL scoring. When teams score, they markedly exceed the game total — but slightly more often than not they collectively underperform.
The road team has been better, exceeding the Vegas total by 1.38 points and hitting its implied team total 59.2 percent of the time.
In these matchups, the Vegas value has been with the underdogs, who have covered the spread in 57.1 percent of games.
For the purposes of daily fantasy football, none of this takes into account the salaries for this week — but in terms of Vegas valuations the underdogs have been superior investments.
The Packers, Steelers, Seahawks, and even the Texans: Historically, their precursors have provided superior value in the divisional playoffs.
No. 1 vs. No. 4: Non-Divisional Home Favorites
Over the last 14 years, the No. 1 seed has always been favored.
This week we have two non-divisional matchups in which the No. 1 seed is hosting the No. 4 seed: Texans at Patriots and Packers at Cowboys.
We’ve had nine such games over the past 14 years. The sample is small, but it might be instructive. The home team has historically won 12.9 games in the regular season; the visiting team, 9.3. The over/under has been an elevated 46.61 — and the Vegas game total has been exceeded by 5.06 points! The over has been hit 67.7 percent of the time.
This data makes intuitive sense. In this scenario, the best team (by seeding) that can possibly play against the No. 1 seed is actually doing so. When the best teams eligible for any matchup are playing against each other, we should probably see a high-scoring game.
The spread has been an average of 8.00 points. The home team has been implied to score 27.31 points; the road team, only 19.31. The home team has exceeded the Vegas total by 3.14 points, hitting its implied total 66.7 percent of the time.
The road team hasn’t been quite as good, but it’s still exceeded the Vegas total by 1.92 points and hit its implied team total 55.6 percent of the time.
—–
I know that some of the information in this section seems to contradict the “Non-Divisional Home Favorites” section, but I don’t think it does.
We know that in a larger sample slightly more non-divisional home favorites underperform Vegas totals than don’t. We also know that these on average these teams overperform those totals. That means that within the non-divisional home favorite cohort is volatility: There are some No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that can score an elevated number of points.
In this subsample of No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchups, we find some of those non-divisional home favorites who put up lots of points. This doesn’t mean that we should assume that the Patriots and Cowboys will score lots of points and that the previous (larger) trend is irrelevant. This subsample actually gives us a fantastically granular view: We see the volatile upside of the home favorite, and we see the consistent value of the road underdog.
No. 2 vs. No. 3: Non-Divisional Home Favorites
Over the last 14 years, the No. 2 seed been favored in 26 of 28 games. In the two games in which the lower-seeded team was favored, the two teams had identical records.
This week we have two non-divisional matchups in which the No. 2 seed is hosting the No. 3 seed: Seahawks at Falcons and Steelers at Chiefs.
We’ve had 13 such games over the past 14 years.
In these matchups, the home team has historically won 12.2 games in the regular season; the visiting team, 11.1. These teams are much more evenly matched than the No. 1 and No. 4 seeds.
The over/under has been a high 46.54 — and (once again) the Vegas game total has been greatly exceeded, in this instance by 4.00 points. The over has been hit 61.5 percent of the time.
Again, this makes sense. In this scenario, the best teams (by seeding) that can possibly play in this matchup are actually playing.
The spread has been an average of 5.50 points. The home team has been implied to score 26.02 points; the road team, only 20.52. The home team has exceeded the Vegas total by 2.67 points, hitting its implied total 53.9 percent of the time.
The road team hasn’t been as explosive — but it’s been more consistent. It’s exceeded the Vegas total by 1.33 points and hit its implied team total 61.54 percent of the time.
—–
Basically, what we see in these No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchups is similar to what we see in the No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchups — except less scoring.
Big picture: In both subsamples of games, it’s the norm for high Vegas totals to be surpassed by higher final totals.
Who Wins?
The non-divisional home favorite has won 68.5 percent of the time over the last 14 years. The non-divisional No. 1 seed has won 75.0 percent of its games; the non-divisional No. 2 seed, 68.0 percent.
Against the No. 4 seed, the non-divisional No. 1 seed has won 67.7 percent of the time. Against the No. 3 seed, the non-divisional No. 2 seed has won 69.2 percent of the time.
What Does All of This Mean?
It’s possible that all of the data I just spewed at you is more descriptive than predictive. It’s for you to determine how to incorporate the data into your decision-making process.
What do I think this data means?
- We’re probably in for a high-scoring (and amazing) weekend of football.
- Because all of these games are rematches, the scoring might be little lower than it otherwise would’ve been.
- Home favorites will likely be a source of upside, and road underdogs could provide hidden value.
- The two games with high Vegas totals — the two games in domes, by the way — look like typical high-scoring divisional playoff games. It’s probably not coincidental that at least 70 percent of the betting public is picking the over for those games despite (or maybe because of?) the high totals.
- The Patriots look like the standard alpha No. 1 seed. Over the last 14 years, non-divisional No. 1 seeds have scored an average of 30.44 points against No. 4 seeds. The Pats are implied for a slate-high 29.75 points.
- The Steelers look like the classic road underdog No. 3 seed. They’re implied for 21.5 points. (They’ve actually lost 1.5 points from their total since the Vegas lines opened.) In the period surveyed by this study, non-divisional No. 3 seeds have scored 21.85 points against No. 2 seeds.
Good luck this weekend!
—–
Be sure to check out our suite of Tools, containing the NFL Player Models and Trends tool that power Team FantasyLabs.
Also, visit our NFL dashboard, for the rest of our positional breakdowns and matchup previews.
