The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
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Divisional Playoffs Wide Receivers
“I love lamp.”
— Brick Tamland
The Big Two
For the last three seasons there’s been a clear three-man cohort of top-tier WRs in the NFL. One of those — Odell Beckham Jr. — has cruised out of the playoffs, and so we’re left with just the Big Two, who unsurprisingly are the most expensive WRs in the slate. They’re also the most productive (minus a certain WR with at least two broken ribs):
• Antonio Brown: $9,600 DK, $8,800 FD
• Julio Jones: $8,400 DK, $8,300 FD
Let’s shred this secondary.
Antonio Is Only as Good as His Road Favorite QB
If you use our Trends tool to sort through all the WRs, you’ll see that not only has Antonio been the most productive receiver this year (including the postseason) . . .
. . . but he’s also easily been the best WR of the last three years:
Those Plus/Minus values are unbelievable for the position, as are the raw points per game (PPG) and Consistency Ratings. But . . .
. . . when the Steelers are on the road quarterback Ben Roethlisberger turns into a liability:
As a result, Antonio also suffers on the road. Per RotoViz:
As you may have surmised, the Steelers are on the road this week. They’re 1.5-point underdogs implied by Vegas to score only 21.25 points against the Chiefs, who are seventh against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
So the spot’s not great for Antonio — and it might be even worse than it seems. Road dog QBs have been brutal against the Chiefs this year . . .
. . . and the same goes for road dog WRs:
At the same time, the visiting QBs and WRs to play the Chiefs this year have been (for the most part) a veritable potpourri — a bricolage, if you will — of sh*t.
So the utility of this trend is uncertain. What’s not uncertain is that right now this weekend’s Kansas City forecast currently calls for freezing temperatures and a 59 percent chance of precipitation — and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is a post-bye savant, going 16-2 in the regular season throughout his career and 3-0 in the postseason, as his defenses held the 2002 Falcons, 2003 Packers, and 2004 Vikings — and QBs Michael Vick, Brett Favre, and Daunte Culpepper — to an average of 12.3 points.
Antonio’s an all-world talent who’s hard to fade, and there aren’t many cornerbacks in the league who can defend him, but (per our Matchups tool) Brown’s expected to run most of routes on the outside against a combination of Terrance Mitchell and Marcus Peters, who have above-average Pro Football Focus coverage grades of 81.5 and 83.6. Antonio has the ability to beat both of those CBs, but in the slate Mitchell has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per route (0.21) and Peters has been targeted at the sixth-lowest rate (16 percent).
As I’ve said, it’s not a good spot. Is it wise to pay an exorbitant amount for a WR when he doesn’t even have the top ceiling projection?
Probably not — and the uncertainty surrounding Antonio is represented in his FantasyLabs ownership projections, which are relatively low for a four-game slate. On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan even mentioned Ben-Antonio as a contrarian stack because of their expected low ownership.
All of that said . . .
. . . it’s the f*cking playoffs. In his four playoff games as Roethlisberger’s No. 1 WR . . .
. . . Antonio’s been targeted an average of 10.5 times per game, and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s risky — but almost every WR is risky in this slate.
By the way, probably don’t start Eli Rogers ($3,900 DK, $5,000 FD). You’re welcome.
The Moustachioed Assassin
While Julio (toe) was sidelined for Weeks 14-15, he returned and produced in Weeks 16-17 and was able to rest last week, so he’s expected to play this weekend at close to maximal health. Per our NFL News feed, he’s practicing in full.
With Julio, it’s all about volume. He’s been great this year when he’s approached double-digit targets:
Otherwise, he’s disappointed. In fact, when salary and ownership are considered, Julio’s had something of a mildly disappointing season:
There’s nothing wrong per se with Julio’s 2016 performance, but it hasn’t provided much value.
The Falcons are five-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Seahawks.
The matchup with the Seahawks might seem tough, but defensively they are 13th in pass DVOA and have allowed a middle-of-the-road 36.4 DK and 29.1 FD PPG to WRs. Plus, in Week 13 three-time All-Pro free safety Earl Thomas (leg) suffered a season-ending injury, and since then WRs have done well when not attached to a rookie (Jared Goff), non-thrower (Colin Kaepernick), or injured hand model (Matthew Stafford) at the QB position:
And, of course, when Julio in Week 6 turned nine targets into a 7/139/1 stat line, Thomas was still healthy.
Julio plays primarily on the outside, so it’s likely that for most of the game he’ll face Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead, PFF’s No. 13 and 36 cover CBs with pass defense grades of 84.9 and 78.5 — but it’s also likely that (as he did in Week 6) offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will move Julio across the formation and put him in the slot more than usual so that he can face slot CB Jeremy Lane, who has a horrible PFF coverage grade of 50.9. One way or another, Julio can probably handle the Hawks.
So the matchup isn’t that bad. Ironically, it’s Julio’s status as a home favorite that’s problematic. With the emergence of Atlanta’s double-headed running attack, Julio has been rendered something of an accessory when the Falcons are favored at home:
It’s not that Julio’s played poorly in this situation. It’s just that the Falcons haven’t needed to rely on him to win games.
Intriguingly, the Falcons have given Mohamed Sanu ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD) some action when they’ve been home favorites:
And in Week 6 Sanu had a good game in Seattle, turning 10 targets into a 5/47/1 line. When Julio isn’t stealing snaps in the slot, Sanu should have ample opportunity to exploit Lane, who this season has allowed the slate’s fifth-most fantasy points per route (0.34).
Julio is outside of the top three in median and floor projections and is a risky play in cash games given the circumstances — but he’s a strong option for guaranteed prize pools. The silent Sanu as well as Taylor Gabriel ($4,400 DK, $5,500 FD), who has seven TDs in his last eight games, are both low-owned high-upside options for exposure to the Falcons offense.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD) and Will Fuller ($3,600 DK, $5,000 FD): The Texans are 15-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 14.75 points against the Patriots, who are allowing WRs to score only 27.0 FD and 34.0 DK PPG — the ninth- and 10th-lowest totals in the league. In Week 3 on the road against the Pats, Hopkins and Fuller combined for 15 targets, which they turned into seven receptions for 87 yards.
Ever since a concussion to backup-turned-starter Tom Savage in Week 17 gave starter-turned-backup-turned-starter Brock Osweiler the opportunity to resurrect himself from the coffin that is the Texans’ bench and reclaim his job as the team’s (cough) ‘No. 1 QB,’ Hopkins has produced. Over the last two weeks ‘Dre has averaged 10 targets for a 6/95/0.5 per-game stat line.
The return of Oz hasn’t done much for Fuller, who’s averaging six targets for a 3.5/30.5/0 stat line over the last two weeks. This season Fuller has basically been the anti-OBJ: He started hot and has done nothing since Week 5. Behold:
The last time Fuller scored a TD, the NBA was still playing preseason games.
Doug Baldwin ($8,100 DK, $7,900 FD) and Paul Richardson ($4,100 DK, $4,700 FD): Since becoming Seattle’s No. 1 WR in the 2013-14 postseason, Baldwin has been a playoff playa:
The Seahawks are five-point road underdogs implied to score 23.25 points against the Falcons, who this year have allowed the sixth-most points in the league to opposing teams and 38.7 DK and 31.1 FD PPG to WRs.
Even though the team total is low-ish and Baldwin did little against the Falcons in Week 6 (five targets for 4/31/0), he’s in a good spot this week. Expected to trail, the Seahawks could have a pass-heavy game plan, and Baldwin has actually been at his best as a road underdog in his three years as the team’s No. 1 WR:
His salary has shot up since his 13/171/1 performance in Week 16 (+$2,100 DK, +$900 FD), but it’s hard to say that he doesn’t deserve the price bump. He currently has the position’s second-highest median projection — and nowhere close to the second-highest projected ownership.
While Jermaine Kearse ($3,300 DK, $4,900 FD) is a waste of a WR uniform — he’s a glorified blocking TE in a 6’1″ and 209 lb. body who sometimes gets way too many targets when head coach Pete Carroll wants to see how close he can come to losing a game without actually losing . . .
. . . Richardson is intriguingly worthwhile. Ever since Tyler Lockett (ankle) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 16, Richardson has been a key part of the offense, playing 49, 43, and 55 snaps in the last three weeks.
A collegiate superstar who broke out as an 18-year-old true freshman, had an outrageous 50 percent of his team’s TDs receiving in his final year, burned a 4.40-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and entered the NFL as a second-round draft pick, Richardson has made the most of his limited (but still increased) targets:
He’s survived primarily on TDs through the last three weeks — but he’s made some Odell-esque receptions and has the upside to produce if given more targets. Richardson’s a viable cheap alternative to Baldwin in GPPs.
The Super Models
There are currently three WRs atop our Pro Models:
• Davante Adams: $7,000 DK, $7,400 FD
• Julian Edelman: $6,800 DK, $7,000 FD
• Terrance Williams: $3,100 DK, $4,500 FD
Half a league onward.
Jordy Junior
Davante is not Jordy Nelson, but he’s as close as we’re going to get in this slate. Nelson (ribs) is out for this weekend, so Davante and Randall Cobb ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD) will run as the Packers’ top WRs, just as they did last year when Jordy was out with a knee injury.
In so many ways, this year Davante has been the junior version of Jordy. Like Nelson, Adams had fewer than six targets in a regular season game only twice. Only Jordy had more than his 12 TDs receiving, and Adams trailed only Jordy (and, fine, also Larry Fitzgerald) with his 11 targets inside the 10-yard line.
Last year, Adams was a drop-prone abomination who couldn’t get in the end zone. This year, he’s still a drop-prone abomination — but he’s dropping getting TDs like . . .
The Packers are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score 23.75 points against the Cowboys, who have something of WR-flowing funnel defense that is ranked eighth in rush DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA.
Last week with Jordy out for most of the game, Davante turned his 12 targets into an 8/125/1 performance. With a pass-heavy game script, Davante should get his targets. True, he had only three targets against the Cowboys in Week 6, but he’s averaged 8.3 targets per game across 12 contests since then and never had fewer than six targets in any of those games. He also has 10 TDs across that time.
Davante’s not the second coming of 1998 Antonio Freeman, but he should be treated as Rodgers’ WR1B, because that’s what he is. He’s currently the No. 1 WR in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models for FD, where he has the position’s highest ceiling projection and most Pro Trends but not the highest salary and projected ownership.
If you want to jump aboard the Cobb train, fine. Just know that he’s been a subpar WR for most of the last two seasons. Seven targets and five receptions in one game don’t change that — even though three of those receptions were TDs. We’re projecting him for the position’s highest ownership.
Also, Geronimo Allison ($3,900 DK, $5,300 FD) hasn’t been the worst player ever in the games in which he’s played an increased number of snaps as an injury fill-in. Cobb missed Weeks 8, 16, and 17, and in those three games Allison was viable:
He’s cheap, likely to play at least 70 percent of the snaps, and set to catch passes from QB Aaron Rodgers. If you’re going to invest anything in a near-talentless undrafted rookie who was unimpressive in college and his pre-draft workouts and has started only two NFL games, those are the prerequisites.
“The name’s Julian — Julian Edelmanimal”
Edelman’s the No. 1 WR in the Levitan Model for both DK and FD. He’s also the No. 1 FD WR in the Sports Geek Model. It’s not hard to see why the models like him. He’s the No. 1 WR for the team with the highest implied total, but he’s priced as only the DK WR5 and FD WR7.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski (back) missed Week 11, played seven snaps in Week 12, and then was placed on Injured Reserve in Week 13. Since Week 11, Edelman has been a top-six fantasy WR:
And over his last four games he leads the league with an unreal 36.64 percent of his team’s targets (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). When Brady throws the ball, the odds are high that it’s going to Edelman.
Of course, the Pats might not need to throw the ball all that much in this game. They’re 15-point home favorites. On top of that, they’re playing against the Texans, who have a funnel defense that is fifth in pass DVOA but 17th in rush DVOA. During the regular season, they held opposing WRs to 32.8 DK and 25.6 FD PPG — the fourth- and fifth-lowest totals in the league.
Edelman has exhibited a remarkably high floor over the second half of the season, but his GPP upside is probably limited given the circumstances.
As for Chris Hogan ($3,900 DK, $5,200 FD), Malcolm Mitchell ($4,700 DK, $5,600 FD), Michael Floyd ($3,800 DK, $4,600 FD), and Danny Amendola ($3,500 DK, $4,500 FD), one of these guys will probably score a TD. We have no idea which one.
“It’s Not You, It’s Him”
A lot of Cowboys fans dislike Terrance Williams ($3,100 DK, $4,500 FD), but he had eight TDs in his second season, 800 yards in his third season, and a vastly improved 72.1 percent catch rate this season. Without getting an outlier like T.Y. Hilton, Williams is the realistic best-case outcome for a WR drafted in the third round.
The point is that he’s good (and volatile) enough to exploit an advantageous matchup when he has one — and this week he has one. Williams plays the majority of his snaps at right WR and Packers CB Damarious Randall plays the supermajority of his snaps at left CB. Per PFF, that’s the most advantageous WR/CB matchup of the slate, as Randall has an abhorrent slate-low 39.1 PFF coverage grade and slate-high 0.51 fantasy points allowed per route on the season.
T-Will might smoke this bro in slow motion like . . .
Randall after the game: “I haven’t been smoked like that since grade school.”
As 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against a team whose defense is 22nd in pass DVOA and this year has allowed WRs to score 35.5 FD and 43.3 DK PPG (the highest and second-highest totals in the league), the Cowboys should have ample opportunity to accumulate production through the air. Dez Bryant ($6,600 DK, $7,600 FD) and Cole Beasley ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD) are fine options, given their winnable matchups against CB LaDarius Gunter and S/slot CB Micah Hyde, who are PFF’s No. 43 and 70 cover men with pass defense grades of 76.9 and 70.1 — but Williams is the play for low-cost low-owned high-upside exposure to the Dallas offense.
The Coda
Alex Smith might be the world’s least inspiring starting QB this side of the Mississippi River — Osweiler’s on the other side — but that doesn’t mean that his top WRs have no factors in their favor.
It’s true that the Chiefs are implied to score only 22.5 points against the Steelers, who this season have held WRs to 25.2 FD and 33.0 DK PPG — the fourth- and fifth-lowest totals in the league — but Jeremy Maclin ($4,300 DK, $5,500 FD) has the ability to produce against a defense that’s dead last in pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs, and the Levitanimal seemingly loses multiple six-packs of Coors Lite each week on the NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod by picking against Tyreek Hill ($5,500 DK, $6,600 FD), who has 799 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs in the 12 games since the Chiefs’ Week 5 bye.
Both of these guys have the potential to outperform expectations. Hill’s combination of low volume and high salary and ownership is laughable — but the Steelers allow the league’s seventh-most yards per kick return (9.6) and third-most yards per punt return. One way or another, Hill could get his 13th TD of the season this weekend.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other divisional round positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
