The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
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Divisional Playoffs Running Backs
“Some men just want to watch the world burn.”
— Alfred Pennyworth
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s RB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 6:35.
The Big One
This could probably be a tier of two, but when the RB1 is $2,000 DK and $1,400 FD more expensive than the RB2, the top cohort kind of creates itself.
It’s Le’Ve-OH-sa, not Le’Veo-SAH
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Le’Veon Bell ($10,500 DK and $9,900 FD) is the first player mentioned as a ‘chalk lock’ by guest Sean Koerner. We agree. He has one of the slate’s highest FantasyLabs ownership projections among not just RBs but all players. Expected to be in perhaps 50 percent of guaranteed prize pool lineups, he’s the chalk de la chalk. His Le’Veownership will be high.
By the way, I’m basically going to plagiarize 90 percent of my blurb from last week, because it still applies.
Bell has flat-out balled out this year, finishing the regular season as the RB1 in points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus. Per our Trends tool:
The goodness continued last week in his postseason debut, as he turned 29 carries and two targets into 174 scrimmage yards, two receptions, two TDs, and 34.4 DK and 30.4 FD PPG. As you probably know, he was easily the slate’s highest-scoring and best-looking RB.
Scoreless in his first five games of the season, Le’Veon was a total beast to close the regular season. Per RotoViz:
And it’s not as if he was trash in the first five games, either.
It’s almost impossible to overstate how dominant Bell was this season. Despite missing four games, he led the entire NFL with 101 total evaded tackles (per Player Profiler). His 95.2 percent opportunity share also led the NFL. And he was fifth among all players (and first among RBs) with 6.3 receptions per game. (The studly David Johnson had ‘only’ 5.0 receptions per game.)
Facing the Chiefs, the Steelers are 1.5-point road underdogs with an implied Vegas total of only 21.25 points. That seems like an all-around bad situation for Bell — and it would be nice if the Steelers had a higher total — but since becoming the best RB on the planet in 2014 Bell has still been amazingly productive in this situation even as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and wide receiver Antonio Brown have suffered from their negative home/road and favorite/underdog splits:
Even with the somewhat negative spot, low team total, and absurdly expensive salary, Le’Veon is second at the position with seven DK and 12 FD Pro Trends. Additionally, the Chiefs have a run-flowing funnel defense that is seventh against the pass but 26th against the rush in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). For a guy who’s touched the ball an average of 28.2 times per game this year, that’s a high-upside matchup.
Here are all the road RBs who touched the ball at least eight times in a game against the Chiefs this season:
Even though the Chiefs went 6-2 and held opposing teams to an average of 15.75 PPG, these 12 RBs were still more than able to get their production:
As was the case last week, there are three primary concerns with Bell:
- He’s expensive.
- He’s injured.
- He’s on a team with a low total.
I’ve been sandbagging. Bell’s not just expensive. Last week he set the all-time RB salary records with marks of $10,300 DK/FD. This week he’s $10,500 DK and $9,900 FD — the highest and second-highest totals in our database.
How has Le’Veon done when he’s been comparably priced?
He’s done well — which is why his salary has steadily increased throughout the year.
That’s not to say that Le’Veon doesn’t carry risk. He does, especially in a small slate lacking salary flexibility. If Bell is locked into a lineup, not only does his salary greatly limit the players who can be rostered with him, but it also becomes a massive liability if he underperforms.
Given that his salary represents a large 21 percent of the salary cap on DK and 16.5 percent on FD, Le’Veon can’t simply be locked into lineups. Serious thought must go into the decision to roster him . . .
. . . especially since (per our NFL News feed) Le’Veon is dealing with some “bumps and bruises.” Nevertheless, Bell is expected to play this weekend — and (my brief alarmism aside) he’s going to get his touches. It’s theoretically possible that DeAngelo Williams ($3,200 DK, $4,500 FD) might steal some snaps with Bell playing at less than 100 percent — but Williams has literally 12 touches for 22 yards in the five games he’s played this year with Le’Veon. If Bell can walk, he’ll be running the ball this weekend.
And as for the Steelers’ low 21.25-point implied total . . .
. . . I’m not too worried about it.
Le’Veon leads the position in median projections as well as ceiling and floor projections.
In retrospect, I probably could’ve written just that last sentence for the entire blurb and saved us about 1,000 words. You’re welcome.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Lamar Miller ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD): He’s been Lamarvelously bad as a road underdog this season . . .
. . . and the Texans are 15-point road underdogs implied to score only 14.75 points against the Patriots, who defensively are fourth in rush DVOA and this season have held RBs to the fifth-fewest fantasy points in the league: 20.8 DK and 17.3 FD PPG.
Pass — which is exactly what the Texans will do for most of the game.
Spencer Ware ($5,200 DK, $6,900 FD): Ware gets almost no respect, but in the 13 full games he’s played this season he’s turned 15.9 carries and 3.1 targets into 101.7 scrimmage yards, 2.4 receptions, and 0.38 TDs per game.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point home favorites implied to score 22.75 points against the Steelers. Those numbers aren’t impressive, but Ware has been good (even if inconsistent) as a favorite this season . . .
. . . and the Steelers have allowed RBs to score 27.2 DK and 23.3 FD PPG — the seventh- and ninth-highest totals in the league.
Do the Chiefs plan to win a playoff game by letting quarterback Alex Smith throw the ball?
Ty Montgomery ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD): In Ty’s six games without James Starks ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) during the regular season, he was inconsistent but productive:
Per our NFL News feed, Starks (concussion) has neither played nor practiced for the last five weeks and seems unlikely to play this weekend given that he’s still in the league’s protocol.
The problem, though, is that even if Starks is out Montgomery isn’t guaranteed to get the snaps or touches of a lead back. Not only is he dealing with an ankle injury that limited him last week, but he’s also played relatively few snaps since his Week 15 breakout. In fact, even when Starks has been out Montgomery has played the snaps of a lead back only intermittently:
• Week 6 (vs. DAL): 50.0 percent of snaps, 19.4 DK and 13.4 FD PPG
• Week 7 (vs. CHI): 69.0 percent, 22.6 DK and 17.6 FD PPG
• Week 9 (vs. IND): 44.9 percent, 12.1 DK and 10.6 FD PPG
• Week 15 (@ CHI): 83.6 percent, 33.3 DK and 29.3 FD PPG
• Week 16 (vs. MIN): 62.7 percent, 8.0 DK and 6.0 FD PPG
• Week 17 (@ DET): 46.7 percent, 9.1 DK and 7.6 FD PPG
• Wild Card (vs. NYG): 57.7 percent, 9.8 DK and 8.3 FD PPG
From this data arises two facts:
- Montgomery is unlikely to be deployed as a workhorse.
- Montgomery is unlikely to destroy fantasy lineups even with limited snaps.
Just last week — despite being collectively outproduced by fullback and Peyton Hillis fanboy Aaron Ripkowski ($4,100 DK, $4,700 FD) and the human virus Christine Michael ($4,300 DK, $5,300 FD) — Montgomery had 11 carries and four targets. At his price, that volume is solid.
Then again, Montgomery has had 15-plus touches just twice in his seven games as a lead back. Over the last four weeks, Montgomery has only 46.81 percent of the Packers’ carries (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report):
Additionally, over the last two weeks John Kuhn v.2.0 has stolen TDs inside the 10-yard line.
Even HRC knows we don’t want the Notorious R.I.P. stealing Montgomery’s touches near the goal line.
On top of that, the Packers are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score 24 points against the Cowboys, who have a pass-flowing funnel defense that is 18th in pass DVOA and this season has held RBs to 19.6 DK and 17.0 FD PPG — the third-lowest totals in the league.
We’re projecting Montgomery to be a low-owned option in GPPs, where he makes some sense as a receiving back stacked with Rodgers in a pass-heavy game — but he’s inordinately risky in cash games.
Thomas Rawls ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD): Rawls is $1,200 DK and $400 FD more expensive after last week’s 162-yard, one-TD performance against the worst defense in the league. This week he’s facing the Falcons, who this season allowed RBs to score 28.1 DK and 24.0 FD PPG — the fourth- and fifth-highest marks in the league.
Rawls has had a disappointing and inconsistent second-year campaign — but he’s been impacted by injuries for almost the whole season and he’s still flashed at times. And last year, before his injury, he was a beast in Seattle’s workhorse role.
Here’s what he’s done over the last two years when he’s gotten 15 carries:
The Seahawks are five-point road underdogs implied to score 23.25 points against a Falcons team that has allowed opponents to score the sixth-most points in the league and is currently 29th in rush DVOA.
If you think that the Seahawks can keep this game close enough for Rawls to get his touches and if you’re wanting to pivot away from the higher-priced backs, then Rawls is someone you’ll want to consider.
The Super Models
This week, we (currently) have two RBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Ezekiel Elliott: $8,500 DK, $8,500 FD
• Devonta Freeman: $5,900 DK, $7,600 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
Straight Outta Columbus
Eazy-E looks like the future of the Cowboys franchise, and yet . . .
. . . fans thought the same thing about another rookie RB a dozen years ago.
By the way, I’m disappointed that other writers haven’t tried the Eazy-E nickname yet. For a multitude of reasons, it might fit better than people realizy-E.
Anyway, the point isn’t that Julius was as good in 2004 as Zeke has been this season or that in the future Zeke’s going to fail as the featured rapper on “Cowboyz-n-the-Hood.” The point is that RB production is brief — like the lives of legit gangstas.
The Cowboys are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.5 points against the Packers, who are more stingy than not with RBs, allowing 22.0 DK and 19.1 FD PPG to the position. Even with the slightly subpar matchup, Zeke should thrive with his volume and circumstances.
In only 15 games, Zeke led the league with 322 rushes and 1,631 yards rushing. He also caught 82.1 percent of his 39 targets for 363 yards. He had 16 TDs from scrimmage. Elliott should get his opportunities.
Not all of the circumstances in this game align for him — Zeke actually has reverse favorite/underdog splits — but on the whole this is a situation in which Zeke has done well:
Zeke makes the four this week as the No. 1 RB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models for FD, where he leads the slate with 15 Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Other than the fact that he has the slate’s highest projected ownership, there’s not much to dislike about the Prophet.
One Letter Shy of Greatness
Last year, Devonta had 1,634 scrimmage yards and a league-high 14 TDs in 15 games. If before the season started I had said to you, “This year, Devonta in 16 games will have 1,541 yards and 13 TDs from scrimmage,” you probably would’ve done some quick calculations, taking into account that last year he had only 4.0 yards per carry and 7.9 yards per reception, and then you probably would’ve said something like, “Yeah, that sounds about right, and that’s a pretty decent year.”
And yet people act like Devonta has been a massive disappointment because . . .
- Only twice this season has Devonta broken the 100-yard threshold as a runner or receiver, and . . .
- Backfield partner Tevin Coleman ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD) managed to ‘steal’ 941 yards and 11 TDs in 13 games.
The problem with this perspective is that it fails to take into account that . . .
- Freeman was never likely to have 2,482 yards and 24 TDs this year, and . . .
- Coleman was always likely to play significant snaps this year, given that just last year he was drafted by this same regime with a top-100 pick even though Devonta was already on the team.
In reality (and fantasy) Devonta hasn’t had a disappointing season. He’s had a great season, and he should be evaluated that way.
The only RBs he trails in PPG are Bell, DJ, Eazy-E, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and DeMarco Murray — and he’s a lot closer to that elite cohort than the RBs in the tier beneath him.
Devonta’s matchup isn’t good — the Seahawks defense is second in rush DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA against RBs and has held the position to the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league (20.2 DK and 17.2 FD PPG) — but this year in the couple of games in which the Seahawks have been underdogs . . .
. . . they’ve been punished by workhorse RBs:
With Tevin playing significant snaps this season, Devonta has exhibited notable splits.
Home/Road
Favorite/Underdog
Division/Non-Division
The Falcons are five-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against a non-divisional opponent, so Devonta’s in a good spot even though he’s on the wrong side of his division/non-division split:
Devonta is the primary back on the NFL’s highest-scoring team, and he makes the four as the No. 1 RB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models for DK, where he leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends. He’s the arbitrage play on Elliott.
For what it’s worth, Coleman tends to be at his best as a road underdog . . .
. . . but he’s still been good as a home favorite:
Coleman has scored TDs in eight of 13 games and surpassed 100 scrimmage yards three times. He’s the cheap low-owned high-upside option for exposure to Atlanta’s offense.
The Coda
The Patriots are 15-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points against the Texans, who have a run-flowing funnel defense that is fifth in pass DVOA but 17th in rush DVOA.
LeGarrette Blount ($5,800 DK, $7,300 FD) has recently been hit with an illness, but he’s expected to play this weekend. I hope he brings his appetite, because he’s likely to eat.
Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 0.85 TDs across 33 games with the Patriots. This year he leads the NFL with 18 TDs rushing and is yet to have fewer than 12 opportunities in any game. He leads the league in both carries and TDs inside the five-, 10-, and 20-yard lines.
It’s probably irrelevant that when the Pats smoked the Texans 27-0 in Week 3 Blount had 105 carries, two TDs, and 25.5 DK and 22.5 FD points on 24 carries — but it’s still intriguing, no?
Over the last three years, when the Patriots have been comparably favored at home they’ve used Blount as a hammer:
That he’s only $200 DK and $300 FD more expensive than Lamar is disgusting.
Since Dion Lewis ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD) has returned James White ($3,400 DK, $4,500 FD) hasn’t been quite as productive as he was earlier in the year (after the suspension of QB Tom Brady ended) . . .
. . . but his production hasn’t been awful either:
Although over the last seven weeks White has markedly outproduced Lewis (7.81 DK and 6.60 FD PPG), the latter is both more expensive and projected for higher ownership. Why?
Lewis is averaging 15 carries and two targets for 71 scrimmage yards per game over the last three games. If he maintains his volume and turns a touch into a TD, he could provide massive value.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other divisional round positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
