The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and matchup previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Steelers at Chiefs
The Steelers head to Arrowhead, where they are implied to be 1.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs. Opening as a pick’em with a 46-point over/under, this game currently has a Vegas total of 44.5 points. The Chiefs are currently implied for 23 points; the Steelers, 21.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben goes back on the road, where he has struggled mightily this year. Ben has thrown for 300 yards only once and multiple touchdowns twice on the road this season. He also has two games with zero touchdowns while traveling. For perspective, he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every home game, one of which was actually against the Chiefs. In that game, he threw for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, the Chiefs were missing Justin Houston, who is expected to play this weekend (per our NFL News feed).
After being torched through the air by Trevor Siemian in Week 12, the Chiefs have tightened their defense. Over the final five weeks of the regular season, they did not allow a single 300-yard passer, including Matt Ryan (in a game the Falcons lost). In that same span the defense had five interceptions and allowed only three TD passes. The Chiefs ended the season with the No. 7 passing defense, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Over the last year, the Chiefs have held QBs to a -2.7 DK Opponent Plus/Minus, the second-lowest mark on this slate. On the road, in a brutal matchup for passers, Big Ben has the second-lowest rating in the Levitan Player Model.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon now holds the single-game regular season and postseason rushing records for the Steelers after his big performances against the Bills and Dolphins this year. Per Pro Football Focus, Bell had four runs of 15-plus yards last week after having only eight during the regular season. Le’Veon now has 20 carries in seven straight games, six of which have seen him go for over 100 yards rushing. In the team’s last three losses, Bell managed a total of only 52 carries, but he did see 32 targets. Bell grinds down defenses when the Steelers are winning and catches passes when they’re trailing.
He will face a Chiefs defense that allowed a surplus of rushing TDs to end the season. Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, Derrick Henry, and Justin Forsett combined for six TDs between Weeks 13 and 16. The Chiefs allowed only three rushing TDs to RBs prior. In his previous game against KC, Bell rushed 18 times for 144 yards and caught five passes for 34 yards. As the Chiefs struggled against the run to end the season, they finished 26th in rush-defense DVOA, allowing the ninth-highest yards per carry and seventh-most total rushing yards. Bell is likely to see a massive workload no matter the game flow. He projects as the slate’s highest-scoring player at any position.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
In what projects to be a close game against the Chiefs, Williams will be lucky to see more than a couple of touches.
WR – Antonio Brown
Brown turned two short passes into long touchdowns last weekend on his way to this third straight 100-yard playoff game. However, as the Steelers picked up a large lead his usage evaporated in the second half. With the Steelers expected to trail this weekend, he should see more targets. It is important to note that Brown’s big plays last week came against a team that this year allowed 2,075 yards after the catch (26th), while the Chiefs have allowed only 1,779 (17th). It is also notable that this year Brown averaged only 3.7 yards after the catch, well outside the top-50 receivers.
While the Chiefs have not allowed many TDs receiving, they have allowed big yardage totals to No. 1 WRs. Over their last six games, they allowed over 100 yards to Julio Jones, Tyrell Williams, and Emmanuel Sanders. They also allowed DeAndre Hopkins to have one of his two 100-yard outings this season. Per our Matchups tool, Brown should see some action against Marcus Peters, the Chiefs best cornerback, but offensive coordinator Todd Haley is also likely to move Brown across the formation as much as possible so that he lines up against Terrance Mitchell and Steven Nelson, both of whom have PFF coverage grades outside the top 35. Brown has the position’s highest median projection.
WR – Eli Rogers
Rogers was expected to see an uptick in usage with Ladarius Green (concussion) out of the lineup last week, but Roethlisberger attempted only 18 passes, and Rogers saw just one target. If Green is able to suit up against the Chiefs, Rogers will continue to be the fourth passing option at best.
However, if Green misses another game, Rogers may have additional opportunities to exploit his matchup in the slot against Nelson, PFF’s No. 74 CB in coverage.
WR – Cobi Hamilton
Hamilton has not cleared 39 receiving yards in any game in which Brown has played this season. He had a single target against the Dolphins last weekend.
TE – Ladarius Green
Last week Green seemed likely to play, but then he suffered a setback, missed Friday’s practice, and was inactive on Saturday. He is still in the concussion protocol and hasn’t practiced this week. He seems very unlikely to play this weekend.
In his place last week Jesse James played 45 of the team’s 59 offensive snaps. He would likely see most of the TE snaps again this week if Green were out.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
Smith is not fun to roster, but he’s in consideration at $5,400 DK. Although the Steelers are a middling 12th in pass DVOA, they may be a tougher adversary than people realize. Over the past four weeks, Pittsburgh has averaged three sacks, one forced fumble, one INT, and just one passing TD per game. That TD:INT ratio happens to be the exact same as Smith’s over the last four games (although he has added rushing TDs in three straight). At the line of scrimmage things look a little better . . .
. . . but he ultimately has a bottom-half matchup in regards to the pressure he will see and the way his offensive line protects (per Football Outsiders and Sporting Charts). The reality is that Smith’s floor and ceiling projections are likely too low for cash games and guaranteed prize pools, but he does have the slate’s second-highest Projected Plus/Minus available at only nine to 12 percent projected ownership.
RB – Spencer Ware
Ware was a true game-time decision in Week 17, so he’s likely near 100 percent now after having a bye week. He’s fully expected to play this week as the lead back, but note that Ware has zero games with more than 20 carries over his last nine outings. He’s averaging 15.1 during that span. The emergence of wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the lack of downfield passing has really hurt Ware’s production this season. However, Ware is a good receiver, and perhaps the Chiefs can get him more involved in the passing game this week against a Steelers defense ranked 11th in rush DVOA but 19th in pass DVOA against RBs. Targeting home favored running backs is historically a positive move, and Ware’s situation, volume, and salary make him a pivot consideration off of Bell and Ezekiel Elliott. Ware has experienced a salary decline of $1,100 over the past month on DK, where he has the position’s second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and rating in our Cash Model.
RB – Charcandrick West
in the 13 games in which Ware has played this year, West has averaged 4.5 rushing attempts and 1.9 targets per contest. He has negative Projected Plus/Minus values on both sites.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
This year Maclin has averaged 1.44 fantasy points per target compared to 1.97 last season. After battling through a groin injury in the middle of the season, Maclin trails only tight end Travis Kelce in offensive snaps played over the past four weeks (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). Per our Trends tool, DK wide receivers comparable in price and projection typically outperform their salary-based expectations at low ownership as home favorites:
Maclin currently has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all DK WRs and is facing a team ranked dead last in pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs.
WR – Tyreek Hill
Hill has a tough matchup in the slot against William Gay, one of PFF’s top-10 CBs. That said, Hill has been unbelievable over the past six games:
His combination of production and volume is not sustainable, but he’s a strong GPP double-dip option with the Chiefs defense.
WR – Albert Wilson and Chris Conley
These guys matter for the Chiefs, but they don’t matter for us. Wilson hasn’t seen more than one target in any of the past four games. His floor projection is literally zero. Conley hasn’t scored a touchdown all season and has PFF’s fourth-worst WR/CB matchup of the slate.
TE – Travis Kelce
Kelce has been the most dangerous TE in the league with the ball in his hands, averaging a position-high 5.4 yards after the catch per target on the season. He has the fifth-highest four-week target share of any player on the slate at 23.08 percent.
For visual consumers:
Kelce is in play in all formats as the No. 1 TE in our Cash Model for FD, where he boasts the most Pro Trends and the highest floor, ceiling, and ownership projections.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
