The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and matchup previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Divisional Playoffs Quarterbacks
“I can’t believe how much I actually miss this place.”
— Dr. Gaius Baltar
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
It’s 2017
I’ve recently made some New Year’s resolutions, one of which is to write faster/shorter pieces. With that in mind, I am resolved to keep this piece under 40,000 words:
@BalesFootball @saahilsud @Joeingram1 @pokershares who needs 40k words? just hire @MattFtheOracle to write a blog post
— Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) January 10, 2017
Honestly, 30,000 should be more than sufficient.
The Big One
After he lapped the Wild Card field last week by completing 62.5 percent of his 40 passes for 362 yards, four touchdowns, and 33.5 DraftKings and 30.5 FanDuel points per game (PPG) — most of which was done without his No. 1 WR — the highest-priced QB for this week could be only one guy.
The Best QB in the NFL . . . is not an All-Pro QB
Even though Aaron Rodgers ($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD) didn’t start the season well, failing to hit the 300-yard mark in any game in Weeks 1-6, he finished the regular season as the QB1 in PPG and Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool) . . .
. . . but he finished third in All-Pro voting at QB. The guys who finished ahead of him are both worthy players, but once RB Eddie Lacy went on the Injured Reserve in Week 7 Rodgers was the best QB of the regular season:
Without an established RB to demand touches, Rodgers is the Packers offense, and it’s hard to say that the team needs a more balanced approach when it’s riding a seven-game winning streak and just crushed the Giants, who during the regular season were Football Outsiders’ No. 2 defense and had held QBs to the league’s second-fewest fantasy points: 14.2 DK and 13.5 FD PPG.
How was Rodgers able to dominate the defense that was fourth against the pass in FO’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)? — especially with Jordy Nelson sidelined for much of the game?
Cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie — who regularly plays in the slot for the Giants and entered the contest with a top-five PFF coverage grade of 90.9 — left the game with a thigh injury after only two snaps. With DRC out, Rodgers gave slot WR Randall Cobb the most targets he’s had since November. Basically, Rodgers (in addition to being awesome anyway) repeatedly attacked a weakness in the Giants defense.
That exploitative tendency should come in handy this weekend against the Cowboys, who have a QB-friendly funnel defense that is eighth in rush DVOA but 18th in pass DVOA. Rodgers is a ball hog inclined to attack through the air anyway — but it just so happens that his preference aligns with Dallas’ defensive weakness. Even though Dallas plays at the league’s second-slowest pace (per FO), Rodgers is likely to approach 40 pass attempts, especially with RB Ty Montgomery (ankle) banged up. In the three games since Montgomery’s 162-yard, two-TD performance against the Bears, Montgomery has averaged only 9.3 carries, whereas Rodgers has averaged 39 pass attempts.
The Packers are 4.5-point road underdogs with an implied Vegas total of 23.75 points. Here are a few items:
- It’s seemingly not ideal that the Packers are road underdogs, but as underdogs they might have an extremely pass-heavy game flow, which would likely benefit Rodgers.
- The road team is almost always an underdog in the divisional round. I’ll talk about this more in another article later this week, but only twice in the last 14 years (56 games) has a road team in the divisional playoffs not been an underdog. Rodgers is an underdog — but that’s to be expected given the circumstances.
- Of all the underdogs, the Packers have the highest implied total.
Throughout his career, Rodgers hasn’t been his best as a road underdog (per RotoViz) . . .
. . . but he’s still been pretty good.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan said that the real story of the divisional round is the possible absence of Nelson, who reportedly suffered two fractured ribs in the Wild Card game and is uncertain to play this week (per our NFL News feed). Since Nelson’s breakout campaign in 2011, Rodgers has simply been a diminished version of himself without his No. 1 WR:
Right now, we’re projecting Rodgers as if Nelson won’t play — and his projections are fascinating. He’s basically tied for the highest median projection (which makes sense, given that he has a league-high 44 TDs in his last 17 games), but he significantly trails the position leaders in ceiling and floor projections. Interpretation: He’s Aaron F*cking Rodgers, so he’ll probably be fine — but he’s unlikely to be his best.
Some people might point to Rodgers’ lackluster Week 6 performance against the Cowboys and use that as the basis for evaluating his potential this week. That would likely be a mistake. Lacy was active in that game and had 17 inefficient carries. In the 12 games since then, Rodgers has 11 multi-TD performances.
Even without Nelson, Rodgers will likely be chalky. His FantasyLabs ownership projections are among the highest at the position.
If you want Rodgers, consider him on FD, where he has a position-high 82 percent Bargain Rating.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Brock Osweiler ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD): He’s the same price on DK as his backups, who are bad enough to be his backups. On the one hand, his cheap salary has helped him to a slate-high 94 percent DK Bargain Rating. On the other hand, he’s the worst person ever to throw any object in the universe toward any other person. His 5.8 yards per attempt is the worst in the league among all qualified players — although it’s sort of a stretch to say that the Wizard of Oz is ‘qualified’ at anything.
The Texans are slate-high 15-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 14.75 points against a Patriots defense that has held QBs to the ninth-fewest fantasy points in the league (17.1 DK and 16.4 FD PPG) and earlier this year blanked the Texans 27-0 as Osweiler scored 8.1 fantasy points.
That wasn’t even close to Osweiler’s worst game of the year.
Exactly.
Osweiler has the slate’s lowest projected ownership, and it’s still too high.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,500 DK, $8,100 FD): Even though Antonio Brown has been a top-three WR over the last three years, Big Ben has been an amazingly mediocre road QB over that span — and “mediocre” might be generous:
The Steelers are 1.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.5 points against the Chiefs, who this year have been favored each game at home, where they have destroyed opposing QBs:
This weekend’s Kansas City forecast currently calls for freezing temperatures and a 66 percent chance of precipitation — and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is a post-bye savant, going 16-2 in the regular season throughout his career and 3-0 in the postseason, as his defenses held the 2002 Falcons, 2003 Packers, and 2004 Vikings — and QBs Michael Vick, Brett Favre, and Daunte Culpepper — to an average of 12.3 points.
This spot is rough for Roethlisberger. The only QB in the slate with consistently lower projections is Frock Usweiler. Ben’s the only QB on the slate with literally zero pro trends.
He’s an automatic fade in cash games. In guaranteed prize pools, he probably deserves limited exposure in the name of contrarianism — but expect nothing so you won’t be disappointed when that’s what you get.
Russell Wilson ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD): The Seahawks are five-point road underdogs implied to score 23.25 points against the Falcons, who this year have allowed QBs to score 19.9 FD and 20.8 DK PPG — the second- and third-highest totals in the league. Against comparably-priced (a.k.a. non-horrible) QBs, the Falcons have been exploitable:
Of course, one of the few ‘comparable’ QBs not to exploit the Falcons earlier this year was Wilson himself. In Week 6 at home against the Falcons, he completed 65.8 percent of his 37 passes for 270 yards — but he had no TDs and only seven yards rushing. He finished with only 11.5 fantasy points. But perhaps that game shouldn’t be held against Wilson, since he was apparently still dealing with knee and ankle issues. At the same time, even when ostensibly healthy Wilson hasn’t been that great, and only this last weekend did he finally play without his knee brace.
The schizophrenic vacillation of that last paragraph suggests how maddening Wilson’s season has been. In addition to having the worst rushing campaign of his career (his 72/259/1 stat line looks like it belongs to a backup running back), he’s also been astoundingly inconsistent as a passer. Over his last four games (including the postseason), Wilson has averaged 265.25 yards, 2.5 TDs, and 0.25 interceptions per game. However, in the four games before that he averaged 235 yards, 0.75 TDs, and two INTs per game.
It’s impossible to say which Wilson will show up against the Falcons. Wilson has nonexistent or negligible home/road, favorite/underdog, and division/non-division splits for his career, so he’s basically a Rorschach — but ever since Paul Richardson‘s snap count dramatically increased in Week 16 (following the season-ending injury to Tyler Lockett) Wilson has been highly efficient even if not highly productive. I don’t want to read too much into that fact, in part because I really like Lockett . . .
. . . but the impact of Richardson’s highlight-filled emergence could be an underappreciated factor in Wilson’s recent play.
Wilson’s in a relatively good spot — he’s playing indoors in January against a team that this year allowed the sixth-most points in the league — so his ownership isn’t expected to be low.
Tom Brady ($7,600 DK, $8,600 FD): The Patriots are slate-high 15-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points against the Texans, against whom without Brady the Pats scored 27 unanswered points in an easy Week 3 blowout. If Brady and the Pats wanted to pass for 400 yards and four TDs, they probably could.
At the same time, the Texans this year have held QBs to the third-fewest fantasy points (15.0 DK and 14.7 FD PPG) and haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season. In fact, only the Broncos held QBs to fewer yards passing in 2016. Again, the Pats probably could throttle the Texans through the air — but it’s not the Patriot way to oppose a defense where it’s strongest.
The Texans have a run-friendly funnel defense that’s 17th in rush DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA. Given that the Pats are expected to play with a lead and that the Texans are weakest against the run, it’s likely that Brady will spend much of this game handing the ball off to his RBs.
Ever since tight end Rob Gronkowski (back) exited the team’s Week 12 game against the Jets in the first quarter, Brady has been a borderline DFS option . . .
. . . and since Gronk’s second-year breakout in 2011 Brady has been a lesser version of himself without Gronk:
On an almost identical number of pass attempts, Brady has fewer fantasy points, completions, yards, and TDs — and more INTs — without Gronk.
It might seem great for Brady that the Pats are home favorites, but throughout his career that has been a neutral-ish (slightly subpar) situation for him:
Also, when the Pats have been comparably favored at home in the past, the fantasy impact on Brady has been nonexistent:
Brady’s status as a big home favorite seems to be irrelevant for his production: It’s a reason neither to play nor fade him.
Everything considered, Brady has the position’s second-highest ceiling but fourth-highest ownership projections. There’s a case for rostering him in GPPs.
Of course, if it weren’t Brady, would you be thinking about a guy without his No. 1 receiver against a position-negative opponent in a production-neutral situation?
The Super Models
As I write this, two non-Roethlisberger QBs are atop our Pro Models:
• Matt Ryan: $7,000 DK, $8,300 FD
• Dak Prescott: $6,000 DK, $7,700 FD
Bang a gong.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2016 NFL MVP
For at least the last decade — and probably longer — whenever a QB has been named the NFL MVP he has always been the first-team All-Pro QB, who this year happens to be Mr. Sarah Marshall. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2016 NFL MVP!
Ryan deserves the award. Rodgers is a Jordy-dependent passer, and Brady’s team went 3-1 without him. Meanwhile, from last year to this year, Ryan threw 353 more yards, 17 more TDs, and nine fewer INTs while throwing 80 fewer passes in general and 74 fewer passes to Julio Jones in particular. He leads the league with a 7.1 percent TD rate. Per Player Profiler:
Searching . . . searching . . . searching . . . found it!
To quote Bill Hader’s ‘Yes Man’ character: “Swinging past your knees.”
There are lots of reasons to like Ryan this week. He ‘Makes the Four’ as the No. 1 FD QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models. He’s also the No. 1 DK QB in the Bales Model. He’s essentially tied with Rodgers for the position’s highest median projections, but he easily leads the position with his ceiling and floor projections. We’re not projecting him to have the position’s highest ownership — but he might deserve it.
The Falcons are in a great spot coming off the bye week. They’re 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.5 points against the Seahawks. The Falcons led the league this year with 33.8 PPG, and after their Week 11 bye they’ve averaged 36.7 PPG and haven’t scored fewer than 28 points in that time frame.
The matchup with the Seahawks might seem tough — in the regular season they held QBs to the fourth-fewest fantasy points (15.7 DK and 15.0 FD PPG), and last week they held Matthew Stafford to 205 yards and no TDs — but the Seahawks are exploitable.
Playing in a division with weak QBs, the Seahawks benefited from facing Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Blaine Gabbert, and Colin Kaepernick this year. Even Carson Palmer was just ‘acceptable’ against them. In truth, the Seahawks have exploitable division/non-division splits against QBs:
Especially against comparably-priced non-division QBs the Seahawks have allowed good production:
Finally, in Week 13 three-time All-Pro free safety Earl Thomas (leg) suffered a season-ending injury, and since then the Seahawks have allowed the Packers, Cardinals, and 49ers to score 38, 34, and 23 points. Without Thomas policing the field, Ryan should have an easier chance to repeat his 335-yard, three-TD performance against the Seahawks in Week 6.
This year only the Coors Field-y Drew Brees, the splits-y Big Ben, and the QB1 A-Rod have been better at home than Ryan. If you’re playing multiple GPP lineups and not rostering Ryan in at least one of them . . .
. . . you might experience some pain.
The QB Who’s Not Tony Romo
Dak is the No. 1 QB in the CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models for DK, where he has a slate-high seven Pro Trends. Giddy up.
For the entire season Dak’s been a strong discount QB. He’s third in the league with an 81.6 Total QBR, and his rushing production (57/282/6) has elevated his weekly floor. He’s done a remarkable job of not destroying fantasy lineups as a rookie.
Like most QBs, Dak has significant splits.
Home/Road
Favorite/Underdog
Division/Non-Division
I know what question you’re going to ask: Did I remove the unrepresentative Week 17 game in which Dak played only partially as a road underdog against the division rival Eagles?
Of course I didn’t — because I’m trying to prove a point, which is this: When Dak has been on the beneficial side of these three splits at the same time, his performance has been juiced:
Under these circumstances, the only QBs who were more productive than Dak this season were Brees, Ben, and Andrew Luck. (And Jameis Winston on DK.) You probably don’t need me to say this, but I will anyway: This week Dak is a non-divisional home favorite.
The Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points and implied to score 28.5 points against the Packers, who this season have allowed QBs to score the seventh-most fantasy points in the league (20.1 DK and 18.8 FD PPG).
It seems very unlikely that Dak will destroy lineups this week. He has the position’s second-highest floor projections.
And yet it’s probably wise not to be bullish on Dak in GPPs. Historically . . .
. . . rookie QBs don’t outperform in the playoffs. Dak isn’t the typical rookie — maybe he’ll be the outlier like Wilson (whom he already resembles in a few ways) — but it’s been almost eight weeks since he last passed for 300 yards in a game.
Not everything that smells like a fart turns out to be cheese.
The Coda
I’ve gone the entire season without saying anything nice about Alex Smith ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD). I’m not about to start now.
The guy hasn’t thrown 300 yards in a game in over four months. He hasn’t thrown three TDs in a game in almost a year and four months. Here are the last three times he passed for 300 yards and three TDs in a game:
• 10/7/2012: 303/3, 49ers
• 10/10/2010: 309/3, 49ers
• 1/1/2005: 328/4, Utes
His low ceiling isn’t high enough for even your daughter’s doll house — regardless of whether you actually have a daughter or she has a doll house.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other divisional round positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
