The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and matchup previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Wild Card Weekend Tight Ends
“Only the dead have seen the end of war.”
— Plato
Someone Has to Have the Highest Salary
This slate has no Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, or Greg Olsen. It really doesn’t even have Jimmy Graham ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD), who hasn’t been ‘himself” for a while.
For the second half of the season, he was a good but not great TE. Even with his Week 1 one-target warm-up performance included, Graham was much better in the first half of the season than in the second. Per RotoViz:
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan discussed the possibility that Graham could be more involved in the Seahawks offense following the season-ending injury that Tyler Lockett (leg) suffered in the second quarter of Week 16. Over the last two weeks, Graham hasn’t exactly returned to form with Lockett out, but he’s been serviceable. Per our Trends tool:
Those Plus/Minus values aren’t special, but this recent sample does suggest that if Graham can continue to work his way back into the Seahawks offense he has a shot at keeping his Consistency high.
At least Graham is in a good spot. The Seahawks are eight-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 26 points.
In his two years with Seattle, Graham has had massive favorite/underdog splits . . .
. . . and he’s also been much better at home (where he’s always been a favorite with the Hawks):
The home version of Graham has consistently been a top-tier TE.
Facing the Lions, he has one of the best matchups in the slate. The Lions are 29th in pass DVOA against TEs and have allowed them to score 22 TDs over the last two seasons.
Graham not only has the position’s highest median projections, but he also has the highest ceiling and floor projections. He’s first and second on DK and FD with six Pro Trends. Unsurprisingly, he’s the No. 1 FD TE in three of our four Pro Models: CSURAM88, Levitanimal, and Sports Geek.
He’s one of the chalkiest TEs with FantasyLabs ownership projections in excess of 20 percent. If you want to pay up for a TE, he’s really the only option.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Clive Walford ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): Stone minimum is too much for Walford. The Raiders are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 16.75 points against the Texans, who are second in pass DVOA against TEs and this year have held the position to the third-fewest fantasy points in the leauge: 8.9 DK and 6.8 FD PPG.
If we could project Walford for less than zero percent ownership, we would.
Will Tye ($2,800 DK, $4,600 FD): The Giants are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score 20 points against the Packers, who are seventh in pass DVOA against TEs.
After becoming the team’s full-time TE after the bye in Week 8, Tye has been . . .
. . . not awful? I guess he’s (not) a punt play???
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($4,200 DK, $5,300 FD): With the exception of one game missed with a concussion, Colton John has a minimum of five targets each game since Week 4:
In his 12 games as an integral part of the Texans offense, CJF has reached his salary-based expectations 83.3 percent of the time. In the two games in which he’s fallen short he’s still managed to come within a point of expectations.
Given his combination of Consistency, salary, projected ownership, and projected ceiling, Fiedorowicz deserves sustained consideration.
Ladarius Green ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD), Jesse James ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD), and Xavier Grimble ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): In the six games he’s played this year, he’s been good, especially when he’s gotten at least five targets . . .
. . . but Ladarius (concussion) hasn’t played in two weeks, and he didn’t practice on Friday. He’s officially questionable for this weekend and is still in the league’s protocol. Monitor his status on our NFL News feed — but prepare for him not to play.
If he missed wild card weekend, Ladarius will likely be replaced by the Dickensian duo of James and Grimble.
The Steelers are 10-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 27.75 points against the Dolphins, who have allowed the slate’s most fantasy points to the position: 15.1 DK and 12.1 FD PPG.
The Super Models
As I write this, two non-Graham TEs are atop our Pro Models:
• Eric Ebron: $3,900 DK, $5,700 FD
• Dion Sims: $2,500 DK, $5,000 FD
I haven’t used a GIF yet, have I?
There we go.
From Famine to Feast
Six weeks ago, Ebron had a one-target, zero-catch ‘performance’ in the Lions’ Thanksgiving game. Since then, he’s had at least five targets in each game:
As you might expect based on the discrepancy between his DK and FD Consistency Ratings, Ebron’s been getting receptions but not TDs:
Yet even without a TD Ebron is starting to impress with his target volume — and he’s at least had a red-zone target in each of the last three weeks.
Here’s the bad news: The Lions are eight-point road underdogs implied to score only 18 points against the Seahawks, who this year have held TEs to 9.6 DK and 7.5 FD PPG — the fourth-lowest totals in the league. Not one part of that last sentence is good for Ebron.
Nevertheless, he leads the position with six DK and eight FD Pro Trends and is the highest-rated FD TE in the Bales Model and DK TE in the Levitan Model.
It’s a small slate, and he’s getting targets. That’ll do the trick.
You Ask Question, I Give Answers
How is Sims the No. 1 DK TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models? Most of the starting DK TEs have Bargain Ratings lower than 25 percent. Sims has a slate-high 98 percent DK Bargain Rating.
He also has four TDs in the last six weeks.
As I’ve been writing this piece, the Vegas lines have shifted. The Dolphins are now 10.5-point road underdogs implied to score 17.5 points against the Steelers, who this year have allowed a middle-of-the-road 13.5 DK and 10.9 FD PPG to TEs.
The Coda
In Week 11, Jared Cook ($3,600 DK, $5,200 FD) returned from some injury that had sidelined him for months. I can’t remember what the injury was. I think it was to either his knee or toe or soul.
In the seven games since his return, he’s had at least five targets four times. He’s done well when targeted:
The Packers are five-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Giants, who defensively are fourth in pass DVOA overall and second, fifth, and seventh against WR1s, WR2s, and supplementary WRs — but they’re 26th in against TEs.
This season, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most receptions (89) and fourth-most yards (1,052) to the position. If Cook gets his targets, he has the potential to accumulate substantial receptions and yards.
We’re expecting people to expect him to get his targets. He has the position’s highest projected ownership.
About that last paragraph: When the season started, I never thought I’d write anything like that about Jared F*cking Cook. It’s been a long NFL season.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other wild card weekend positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
