The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and matchup previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Wild Card Weekend Wide Receivers
“Any truth is better than indefinite doubt.”
— Sherlock Holmes
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s WR Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 6:37.
WR Pricing
Small slates are like small dogs: [Insert here the rest of the analogy.]
Pricing patterns tend to be exaggerated in small slates, and that’s the case this week: There are significant gaps in the salary scale, and WR salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models): The two most expensive WRs collectively cost $18,500 on DK and $18,000 on FD — even though FD’s salary cap is $10,000 higher than DK’s. The average Bargain Rating for these two WRs is 0.5 percent on DK. On FD, 99 percent.
There’s a disparity in WR pricing, and it’s significant. If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
The Big Three
At various times this season we’ve had the Big Six, the Big Five, and the Big Four — but this shifting top tier of WRs has been built around three players for most of the season.
The Top Three are easily the most expensive and productive WRs in the slate. Per our Trends tool:
Those Plus/Minus values might not look impressive, but at a position as volatile as WR those numbers are good, especially when the raw points per game (PPG) and Consistency are taken into account.
Here they are:
• Antonio Brown: $9,400 DK, $9,100 FD
• Odell Beckham, Jr.: $9,100 DK, $8,900 FD
• Jordy Nelson: $8,000 DK, $8,500 FD
Here are a couple of points about these guys:
- AB and OBJ form their own contained tier. If you want to pivot from one to the other you can probably do so.
- Jordy is substantially cheaper than AB and OBJ, so it may seem as if he doesn’t belong, but he’s also substantially more expensive than the WR4 ($1,000 DK, $1,100 FD). If you want to roster an elite WR but don’t want to pay an absurd price, Nelson is your guy.
Let’s shred this secondary.
Have Quarterback, Won’t Travel
The negative splits of QB Ben Roethlisberger are known, and they’re mirrored in the production of his all-world WR1. Despite being the best WR in the NFL over the last three years, Antonio is a mere human: He has significant home/road and favorite/underdog splits.
This week, the Steelers are 10-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 28.25 points. The circumstances for Antonio are ideal:
OBLIGATORY GIF:
The Steelers are playing against the Dolphins, who are 14th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and fourth against No. 1 WRs in pass DVOA — but Antonio’s matchup isn’t likely to be as tough as that ranking would suggest. Both of the Dolphins’ starting safeties (Isa Abdul-Quddus and Reshad Jones) are on Injured Reserve, and No. 1 cornerback Byron Maxwell (ankle) hasn’t played since Week 15. Per our NFL News feed, he’s yet to practice this week.
Maxwell is a key part of the Dolphins secondary and is Pro Football Focus’ No. 10 cover CB with a strong grade of 85.6 against the pass. As of now, we’re tentatively expecting him to miss the game, which means that Antonio gets a big upgrade. Per our Matchups tool, Antonio will likely run most of his routes on the outside against Tony Lippett and Xavien Howard, who have 75.8 and 50.6 PFF coverage grades. Lippett is average, while Howard is horrible — and not even average is likely to be sufficient against Brown.
In this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan speculated that Antonio would easily be one of the chalkiest players in the slate, and that’s reflected in his FantasyLabs ownership projections: We’re expecting Brown to be rostered in more than half of all guaranteed prize pool lineups.
The league leader with 7.1 receptions per game, Brown has the slate’s highest median projections and is the No. 1 FD WR in the Levitanimal Model.
P.S. In the nine games this year in which he’s gotten at least five targets, Eli Rogers ($4,000 DK, $5,000 FD) has been productive. Per RotoViz:
Rogers has hit his salary-based expectations in 77.8 percent of his five-target games.
13 Going on 14
After opening the season with four straight scoreless games, OBJ has been the No. 1 fantasy WR over the last 13 weeks:
Even with his slow start, OBJ has finished the season ranked second with 169 targets, third with 101 receptions and 1,367 yards, and fifth with 10 touchdowns and 21 red-zone targets.
Excuse me for a second . . .
. . . I needed to collect myself.
The Giants are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score 20 points against the Packers. It’s a bad spot for OBJ in that the team total is low and he (unlike Antonio) is on the wrong side of his home/road and favorite/underdog splits:
Those Plus/Minus values and Consistency Ratings are low for a top-tier WR. It also probably doesn’t help OBJ that the NYG-GB game is currently forecast to have a slate-low temperature of 13 degrees Fahrenheit.
Yet even with the negative circumstances OBJ has a good chance to produce because of his matchup: The Packers this year have allowed opposing WR units to score 35.5 FD and 43.3 DK PPG — the highest and second-highest totals in the league. The consistency with which the Packers defense is exploitable by pass catchers is almost impressive: It ranks 28th, 29th, and 26th in pass DVOA against WR1s, WR2s, and supplementary WRs.
Although he doesn’t have the slate’s highest median projections, OBJ does have its highest ceiling projections — a fact that feels very ‘OBJ.’
The odds are very high that most tournament lineups will feature either Antonio or OBJ.
As a leverage play to OBJ is his rookie teammate Sterling Shepard (4,800 DK, $5,100 FD). Even with his infamous zero-target performance in Week 12, Shepard has been an integral member of the Giants offense this season, especially since the team’s bye in Week 8:
Of the Giants WRs, Shepard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in this juicy matchup — and he’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
He’s currently the No. 1 FD WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models.
Comeback Player of the Year
Jordy easily leads the NFL with 14 TDs receiving as well as 15 targets inside the 10-yard line. Only twice all year has he had fewer than six targets in a game. He’s sixth in the league with 152 targets and 1,257 yards and fifth with 97 receptions. He’s not the 98/1,519/13 force he was in 2014 on 151 targets — but he’s not far from it either.
The Packers are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the Giants. Since his 2011 breakout, Jordy has been his best at home . . .
. . . but that’s about the best that can be said for his spot. The Giants this year have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to WRs — 33.2 DK and 26.5 FD PPG — and defensively they’re fourth in pass DVOA and specifically second, fifth, and seventh in pass DVOA against WR1s, WR2s, and supplementary WRs.
The good news is that when the Packers hosted the Giants in Week 5, QB Aaron Rodgers targeted Jordy 13 times. The bad news is that Jordy had only a 4/38/1 performance on those targets. And the worst news is that shutdown CB Janoris Jenkins didn’t shadow Nelson in that game but we’re expecting him to do so in this one.
Jenkins has a top-10 PFF coverage grade of 88.1, and since Week 10 the Giants have used him in shadow coverage against clear No. 1 WRs: A.J. Green in Week 10, Terrelle Pryor in Week 12, Antonio in Week 13, and Dez Bryant in Week 14. If that pattern holds, he will likely defend Jordy on the vast majority of his outside routes. And when Jordy moves into the slot — he’s played 28 percent of his snaps there this year — he’ll likely be covered by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who regularly plays in the slot and has a top-five PFF coverage grade of 90.9.
None of this means that Jordy should be faded. In fact over the last six weeks — in which the Packers have gone from 4-6 to 10-6 — Jordy has been the No. 1 overall fantasy WR:
But it does mean that going all in on Nelson is a risky play. Of course . . .
. . . Jordy’s significantly cheaper than Antonio and OBJ, his ceiling projections are almost as high as OBJ’s, and his ownership projections are by far the lowest of the Big Three. And he has the slate’s highest floor projections.
One word: #Arbitrage . . . and also #Contrarianism — that’s two words, but they both apply.
In comparison to Jordy, teammate Davante Adams ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD) has it easy: With Jenkins shadowing Jordy on the outside, Adams is likely to run most of his routes against rookie CB Eli Apple, who has a chance to be a stud eventually but now is ‘merely’ average with a 71.1 PFF coverage grade.
Like Jordy, Adams has had fewer than six targets in a game only twice. He trails only Jordy with his 12 TDs receiving, and he’s top-10 in the league with his 10 targets inside the 10-yard line. (We call that the “Trifecta of Ten.” And by “we,” I mean “I made that up right now.”)
He’s cheaper than Jordy, projected for less ownership, and in possession of comparable TD upside.
As for Randall Cobb ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD) and Geronimo Allison ($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD), one of these guys is likely to play the majority of the game in the slot against DRC. That’s a tough matchup, but at least it will come with less than five percent ownership.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Amari Cooper ($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD) and Michael Crabtree ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD): To quote Melvin Udall . . .
And, in case you were going to ask, I’m also not going to let you inject me with the plague, either.
Yep, that’s all the analysis these guys deserve.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,700 DK, $7,400 FD) and Will Fuller ($4,400 DK, $5,000 FD): Perhaps the saddest thought in the fantasy world is that Hopkins this year has been at his best with Tom Savage at QB:
Savage (concussion) is out, and Brock Osweiler has returned to claim his throne of lies. Amazingly, he’s likely not the worst QB in this game, as the Raiders are starting a rookie QB claiming to be named Connor Cook.
The Texans are perhaps the most unconvincing 3.5-point home favorite one might ever see in the playoffs. They’re implied to score 20.25 points. By default, this contest will have a winner — but everyone who has anything to do with this game is likely to be a loser.
Hopkins is like the Texas version of Allen Robinson: He’s in the top 10 with 151 targets, but he’s 26th with 78 receptions, 29th with 954 yards, and 56th with four TDs. Phrased differently: He’s the more-targeted less-successful version of Amari.
In his three years with head coach Bill O’Brien, Nuk hasn’t exhibited favorite/dog splits, but he has been his best at home:
I guess that’s something.
At a glance, the matchup doesn’t look bad for Hopkins: The Raiders defense is 25th in pass DVOA. Upon deeper analysis, though, the matchup looks bad: The Raiders are No. 5 in pass DVOA against WR1s, thanks in large part to Sean Smith, PFF’s No. 26 cover CB with a good pass defense grade of 81.2. We’re expecting him to be the primary defender on Hopkins.
Fuller theoretically has an easier matchup: The Raiders are 21st in pass DVOA against WR2s — but Fuller is likely to face David Amerson for much of the game, and Amerson is PFF’s No. 35 cover CB with his 78.6 pass defense grade.
Fuller’s basically the anti-OBJ: He started the season hot and has done nothing since Week 5. Avert your eyes:
The last time Fuller scored a TD, a majority of the country thought that Hillary Rodham Clinton would be the next President.
Times change.
Golden Tate ($6,300 DK, $6,100 FD), Marvin Jones ($4,100 DK, $5,500 FD), and Anquan Boldin ($4,000 DK, $4,800 FD): The Lions are eight-point road underdogs implied to score 17.75 points against the Seahawks, who are 13th in pass DVOA. The matchup isn’t great, and QB Matthew Stafford has been a lesser version of himself since injuring the middle finger on his throwing hand in Week 13.
Nevertheless, the individuals in this trio of WRs have some actionable splits that are fascinating and yet fairly intuitive given the dynamic of this group.
Tate has been significantly better as a dog . . .
. . . and marginally better as a visitor:
As a road underdog, Tate has been explosive:
When the Lions have been in disadvantageous situations, they’ve made it a priority to funnel production toward their best WR.
Conversely, Boldin this season has been significantly better at home and as a favorite — and so he’s been downright horrible as a road underdog:
When the Lions have points to go around, they throw some bones to Q, who actually is second among all WRs with 22 red-zone targets this year. But when the Lions are in bad situations, Boldin has been a non-contributor.
And what about everyone’s favorite early-season pretend No. 1 WR? His splits are almost nonexistent.
Tate is expected to run many of his routes against Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead, PFF’s No. 16 and 38 cover CBs with pass defense grades of 83.7 and 78.5. His matchups are suboptimal — but Stafford will need to throw the ball to someone, especially with pass-catching RB Theo Riddick (wrist) now on IR. With his combination of top-five ceiling projection and non-top-five ownership projection, Tate is in play.
Plus . . . I guess this is a #RevengeGame?
The Super Model
There’s currently only one non-Antonio/Sterling WR at the top of our four Pro Models. Celebrate.
Let It Game Flow
Even though he’s not a sexy player (metaphorically), Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DK, $6,400 FD) deserves attention. He’s basically been this year, who he was last year. You can yawn, but he’s to slot receivers what Tate is to outside receivers:
The Dolphins are 10-point road underdogs implied to score only 17.75 points against the Steelers, who this year have held WRs to 25.2 FD and 33.0 DK PPG — the fourth- and fifth-lowest totals in the league. So the circumstances are bad for Landry as well teammates DeVante Parker ($4,200 DK, $6,000 FD) and Kenny Stills ($3,800 DK, $5,000 FD) — but at least they’re likely to get a lot of targets due to game flow.
All three WRs deserve consideration as part of a larger game stack, especially Landry, who ‘Makes the Four’ as the No. 1 WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models for DK, where Landry leads the position with eight Pro Trends and a +3.91 Projected Plus/Minus.
The Coda
In his three years as the No. 1 WR for the Seahawks, Doug Baldwin ($7,000 DK, $6,900 FD) has established home/road splits and nonexistent favorite/dog splits. Of course, the Seahawks’ home-field advantage is so strong that Baldwin has never been a dog in Seattle.
There’s something intriguing about Baldwin’s home production. As good as his 2015 campaign was, Baldwin has never been better at home than he has been this year:
It’s annoying that last week Jermaine Kearse ($4,000 DK, $4,900 FD) and Paul Richardson ($3,400 DK, $4,700 FD) each had seven targets while Baldwin had only four — but that was last week on the road in Week 17. What happens on the road in Week 17 stays on the road in Week 17, know what I mean?
This week the Seahawks are eight-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Lions, who are dead last in pass DVOA. Not only that, but the lions are also last in pass DVOA against “supplementary WRs” — and since Baldwin is the rare No. 1 WR who plays the supermajority of his snaps in the slot he probably classifies as a supplementary WR through an FO loophole.
With CB Asa Jackson (ankle) now on IR, we’re expecting Baldwin to run most of his routes against special-teamer Johnson Bademosi, who (unsurprisingly) has a poor PFF coverage grade of 62.5 and has played only 179 pass coverage snaps this year.
Think about this: Baldwin is actually about to face an injury fill-in whose surname begins with the letters B–A–D.
I think we’re done here.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other wild card weekend positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
