The Week 17 NFL Dashboard
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Week 17 Wide Receivers
“Hi, I’m Mrs. Han Solo, and I’m an alcoholic. I’m an alcoholic because George Lucas ruined my life, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.”
— Carrie Fisher
WR Pricing
Pricing is all over the place because it’s Week 17. Some teams have no incentive to play. Other teams have every incentive. For a global perspective on this week’s league dynamics, consult my piece on the current playoff picture.
Even with the randomness Week 17 provides, some trends hold true. As I’ve pointed out in the WR Breakdown previously, our Bargain Rating metric indicates that WRs are ridiculously expensive on DraftKings and historically cheap on FanDuel.
For instance, if you look in the Player Models, you’ll see that not one of the eight highest DK WR salaries belongs to a player with a Bargain Rating of at least 10 percent. On FD, not one WR in the entire slate has a Bargain Rating lower than 10 percent.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that six of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs. DK really values its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, only three of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs.
The two most expensive WRs collectively cost $17,700 on DK and $17,300 on FD — even though FD’s salary cap is $10,000 higher than DK’s. There’s a disparity in WR pricing, and it’s significant. You’ll want to arbitrage where/when you can.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
The Big Six Four
This week, the two most expensive WRs — Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,000 DK, $8,800 FD) and Antonio Brown ($8,700 DK, $8,500 FD) — are untouchable. Neither the Giants nor Steelers can help or hurt their seeding in Week 17. The Giants might play their starters for only a few series, and the Steelers are expected to rest their core players entirely.
And so we have not the Big Six but the Big Four — the most expensive and productive WRs expected to play fully in the slate. Per our Trends tool:
Those Plus/Minus values might not look all that impressive, but at a position as volatile as WR those numbers are good, especially when the raw points per game (PPG) and Consistency are taken into account.
Here they are:
• Julio Jones: $8,400 DK, $8,300 FD
• Mike Evans: $8,000 DK, $8,400 FD
• Jordy Nelson: $8,100 DK, $8,200 FD
• T.Y. Hilton: $7,600 DK, $7,800 FD
Here are a couple of points about these guys:
- They are within a fairly tight salary range, especially Jones, Evans, and Nelson. In many cases you should be able to pivot from one WR to another if you want to do so.
- The salary gap between Hilton and the WRs beneath him isn’t huge, but it’s significant: $400 DK and $600 FD if Dez Bryant ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD) is discounted on FD.
Let’s shred this secondary.
The Moustachioed Assassin
Julio’s part of the Big Four . . . but don’t play him in cash games. He’s too risky. He’s a great play in guaranteed prize pools — he’s actually the highest-rated DK and FD WR in the Levitan Model — but Julio’s still dealing with a toe injury that caused him to miss Weeks 14-15, and in his Week 16 return he played a season-low 62 percent of the offensive snaps and had only seven targets.
Julio’s been great this year when he’s approached double-digit targets. Per RotoViz:
Otherwise, he’s disappointed. In fact, when salary and ownership are considered, Julio’s had something of a mildly disappointing season:
That’s not to say that Julio isn’t a great WR in a great spot. He is. The Falcons are 7.5-point favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 32 points, and they’re facing the Saints, who are 29th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This game has a slate-high over/under of 56.5 points, and the Falcons can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win. They’re motivated.
All of that looks good — and it helps that Julio has FantasyLabs ownership projections of only nine to 12 percent — but over the last two years with Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator Julio has been subpar as a home favorite:
Per our Matchup tool, Julio is likely to run most of his routes on the outside against cornerbacks Sterling Moore and B.W. Webb, neither of whom has better than an average Pro Football Focus coverage grade. If he’s targeted, Julio should be able to exploit his opportunities.
Of course, Julio might not be targeted often enough to reach value. It’s possible that the Falcons could use running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman for much of the game,
It’s also possible that quarterback Matt Ryan could target other matchups. For instance, Mohamed Sanu ($4,600 DK, $5,100 FD) is expected to run most of his routes against safety/slot CB Vonn Bell, who has a poor PFF coverage grade of 54.2. Bell’s allowed a slate-high 0.72 fantasy points per route and been targeted at a top-10 rate of 23 percent.
Ryan and the Falcons could easily have a big game without relying heavily on Julio.
231 Pounds of 6’5″ Wasted Bad-Assery
For the first three months of the season, Evans had the most targets in the NFL. Over the last month . . .
. . . he’s apparently had a falling out with QB Jameis Winston.
What’s been so horrifying about Evans for the last four weeks hasn’t been his production . . .
. . . as bad as it has been. What’s truly horrifying is that Evans has lost more than one-third of his targets even though the Bucs have been in must-win mode that entire time.
It’s nice to think that the Bucs will prioritize getting Evans the ball because they need to win since they have a (theoretical) chance to make the playoffs — it’s especially nice to think that in Week 17, when at least half of the league doesn’t care if it wins or loses — but the fact is that needing to win isn’t incentive enough for the Bucs to target their No. 1 WR.
Evans has never been efficient at catching the ball — for his career he has a 53.8 percent catch rate — so he needs high volume to be a consistent producer. As we’ve seen recently, Evans struggles when he doesn’t dominate the Bucs’ targets.
A month ago, Evans led the NFL with 31.29 percent of his team’s targets over the previous four weeks. Now, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Evans has a mediocre 24.39 percent of the targets:
The Buccaneers are four-point road favorites implied to score 25 points against the Panthers. Although the Panthers defensively have improved and now rank 12th in pass DVOA, they still this season have allowed WRs to score 39.4 DK and 31.5 FD PPG — the seventh-highest marks in the league.
So Evans looks like he’s in a decent spot — he has top-three median and ceiling projections — but he’s actually struggled as a favorite with Winston at QB and head coach (former offensive coordinator) Dirk Koetter calling the plays over the past two years:
Evans is projected for 13-16 percent ownership. Be cautious. There’s underappreciated downside mixed with that upside.
Comeback Player of the Year
Jordy leads the NFL with 14 touchdowns receiving as well as 15 targets inside the 10-yard line. The Packers are three-point road favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Lions, whose WR-friendly funnel defense is dead last in pass DVOA. John Proctor talks about Jordy’s potential matchup with Lions CB Darius Slay (shoulder) in his WR/CB Matchups.
Bottom line: Even if Slay does play, it doesn’t matter. He never provides total shadow coverage, playing only three percent of his snaps in the slot, and Jordy could play more in the slot this week if Randall Cobb ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD) once again sits with his ankle injury. But even if Slay and Cobb both play, it probably doesn’t matter. Over the last five weeks — in which the Packers have gone from 4-6 to 9-6 — Jordy has elevated his game:
In fact, over the last five weeks Jordy has been the No. 1 overall fantasy WR:
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Jordy was one of the first WRs we mentioned as a ‘chalk lock’ for cash games, and we’re projecting him to be one of the highest-owned WRs in GPPs.
Jordy’s the man.
And WR Davante Adams ($5,700 DK, $6,800 FD) isn’t bad either — when he’s not dropping TDs.
The Packers are one victory away from winning the NFC North, and Jordy and Adams have combined for over 50 percent of the team’s targets over the last four games. Who’s going to stop QB Aaron Rodgers from throwing 20 passes in Week 17 to his top wideouts?
Thank You, Thank You, Thank You
The 7-8 Colts don’t have anything to play for — except for maybe the jobs of head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson — but what matters is that the Colts have indicated that they will not rest any of their starters in Week 17. Game on.
The Colts are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Jaguars.
On the negative side is that the Jags this season have held WR units to 33.1 DK and 26.3 FD PPG — the sixth-lowest marks in the league.
On the plus side is basically everything else.
Donte Moncrief (shoulder) hasn’t practiced this week and is likely to sit out this weekend’s game. In his six games this season without Moncrief, Hilton has dominated:
On top of that, Hilton has consistently throughout his career been his best as a home favorite, a trend we’ve clearly seen over the last three years:
Finally, it’s probable that Hilton’s matchup isn’t as bad as it seems. Although it’s possible that stud rookie CB Jalen Ramsey could provide shadow coverage on Hilton, we’re expecting Ramsey to stay primarily on the outside, since he’s played only 14 percent of his snaps in the slot. And if Ramsey happens to cover Hilton in the slot . . .
. . . I’ll take the five-year veteran with speed, slot experience, and the league-leading 1,353 receiving yards, thanks.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD) and J.J. Nelson ($4,600 DK, $5,300 FD): Since Week 6, Fitz has 9.6 targets, 7.1 receptions, and 62 yards per game — but no TDs. On the season, he’s tied for third in the league with 11 targets inside the 10.
Regression seems likely to occur at some point. Next season?
Since entering the league last year, Nelson has played three games without former Cardinals WR Michael Floyd. In those games . . .
. . . JJN has impressed. Jordy Jr. has seven TDs in his last eight games.
Fitz and Nelson are expected to run most of their routes against Rams CBs Blake Countess and E.J. Gaines, both of whom have amazingly poor PFF grades below 50.
Allen Robinson ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD): The Jaguars are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.25 points against the Colts. Some of that might seem bad, but A-Rob has never not been an underdog when on the road, where he’s done pretty well:
Additionally, the Colts are 27th in pass DVOA.
Even though he’s disappointed this year, Robinson is ninth in the league with 139 targets and tied for sixth with 10 targets inside the 10-yard line. We’re expecting Robinson to run most of his routes against CB Vontae Davis, who has a putrid 44.0 PFF coverage grade.
Amari Cooper ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD) and Michael Crabtree ($5,600 DK, $6,100 FD): Pretend Backup QB Matt McGloin is starting for a Raiders team that’s a 1.5-point road underdog implied to score only 19.5 points against the Broncos, who are first in pass DVOA and holding WRs to league-low marks of 24.0 DK and 19.2 FD PPG.
Thanks for the memories, fellas.
Jeremy Kerley ($3,200 DK, $4,700 FD): Fellow starting WRs Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton are on Injured Reserve, Kerley easily leads the 49ers with 24.11 percent of the team’s targets over the last month . . .
. . . and Kerley’s likely to run almost all of his routes against slot CB Jeremy Lane, the weakest member of the Seahawks secondary and the recipient of a poor 58.9 PFF coverage grade.
Over the last three weeks, Kerley has eight targets in each game and a 100 percent Consistency Rating.
We’re projecting him for zero to one percent ownership.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,500 DK, $5,100 FD) and Will Fuller ($4,500 DK, $7,200 FD): These guys have the uninspiring backup-turned-starter Tom Savage throwing them the ball, and they might play limited snaps because the Texans are locked in as the No. 4 seed — but they’re projected for less than five percent ownership, and they’re facing a Titans defense that this season has allowed WRs to score league-high marks of 45.0 DK and 35.2 FD PPG.
Steve Smith Sr. ($4,900 DK, $5,800 FD): At some point, the Mötley Crüe farewell tour ends.
This is the final song.
Brandon LaFell ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD): Ever since A.J. Green (hamstring) exited Week 11 with his injury, #LaFail LaFell has been the WR1 for the Bengals, averaging a 4.8/75.2/0.4 stat line in the five games since then:
Green is out for Week 17, as is tight end Tyler Eifert (back). LaFell has a good chance of reaching his five-game average of 8.2 targets.
Adam Thielen ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD): Over the last three weeks, Thielen has averaged seven targets and 101 yards per game, and in his two games this season without Stefon Diggs ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD) he has produced:
Diggs (hip) is officially doubtful for Week 17 and extremely unlikely to play.
And yet . . .
. . . the Vikings are six-point home favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the Bears. The implied total is nice, but Thielen has highly disadvantageous favorite/underdog splits:
Don’t go overboard on the 2016 good version of Brian Hartline.
Julian Edelman ($6,400 DK, $6,800 FD), Chris Hogan ($3,900 DK, $5,100 FD), and Michael Floyd ($3,500 DK, $4,600 FD): The Patriots are 10-point road favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the Dolphins. The odds are pretty decent that at least one of these guys catches a TD.
Consider Hogan, whose ceiling is almost as high as Edelman’s but whose projected ownership is about 10 times less.
Also, Malcolm Mitchell ($4,700 DK, $5,900 FD) is doubtful with a hip injury and almost certainly will miss Week 17.
DeSean Jackson ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD): D-Jax suffered a shoulder injury in the Week 8 London game. Since returning in Week 11, DeSean has been da bomb:
His 4/92.5/0.5 stat line on 6.5 targets per game is legit.
The matchup doesn’t look great, as the Giants defense is third in pass DVOA and fourth in rush DVOA — but the Giants are locked in as the No. 5 seed and are likely to rest a number of their starters on both sides of the ball. The Giants won’t offer sustained resistance.
The Redskins are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points. With a win they are a 99 percent lock to make the playoffs. They’re motivated.
Pierre Garcon ($5,000 DK, $5,600 FD) and Jamison Crowder ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD) are also in play. Garcon actually has the highest projected ceiling of the trio while Crowder easily has the lowest projected ownership.
Kelvin Benjamin ($5,300 DK, $6,800 FD): K-Benjy this year has basically been the guy he was as a rookie minus 1.66 targets per game. For his career, when Benjamin’s hit the six-target threshold in a game, he’s produced:
The Panthers have little incentive to compete, but Benjamin has an excellent matchup against rookie Bucs CB Vernon Hargreaves III, who one day will probably be a good player but right now has a poor PFF coverage grade of 56.9.
Hargreaves has played 76 percent of his snaps at right CB this season, and Benjamin runs most often at the left WR position. Hargreaves has been targeted on a high 22 percent of his routes defended.
This is a matchup that Benjamin can exploit — especially at a projected ownership of zero to one percent.
Golden Tate ($6,600 DK, $5,700 FD): The Lions are three-point home underdogs implied to score 23.25 points against the Packers, who this year have allowed WR units to score 42.7 DK and 34.8 FD PPG — the second-highest marks in the league. With a victory, the Lions will win the NFC North.
RB Theo Riddick (wrist) is officially out for Week 17 and will miss his fourth straight game. One of the best receiving backs in the NFL, Riddick is a primary option for the Lions in the short passing game. In the five games Riddick has missed this year, Tate has emerged:
We’re expecting Tate to run most of his routes against CB Damarious Randall, whose abhorrent 38.7 PFF coverage grade is one of the worst marks on the planet.
Tate might smoke this secondary in slow motion like . . .
Randall after the game: “I haven’t been smoked like that since grade school.”
Sammy Watkins ($5,800 DK, $6,100 FD): Watkins (foot) is officially questionable but expected to play in Week 17. He’s coming off a monster 7/154/1 performance, but he’s getting almost no hype this week because QB Tyrod Taylor has been benched and backup E.J. Manuel is slated to start.
Are we really sure that Manuel’s presence in the game is going to be a detriment for Watkins?
In his rookie season, Watkins was basically just as good in Manuel’s four starts as he was in his other 12 games:
Over the last two years, Manuel has filled in for Taylor twice. Watkins missed one of those games, but in the other one he was very much his typical second- and third-year self:
The samples are small, but they clearly suggest that Manuel might not be a downgrade for Watkins.
That’s important because Watkins has an excellent matchup. The Bills are 3.5-point road favorites implied to score 22.75 points against the Jets, who have a WR-friendly funnel defense that is 31st in pass DVOA.
Throw down.
Brice Butler ($3,700 DK, $4,500 FD): This one’s ‘educated speculation.’ In Week 7 of last year, Butler became Dallas’ de facto handcuff for Dez. Here are the games Dez has missed since then and the percentage of offensive snaps Butler has played:
• 2015, Week 7: 76.7 percent
• 2015, Week 16: 86.4 percent
• 2015, Week 17: 86.8 percent
• 2016, Week 4: 81.6 percent
• 2016, Week 5: 80.7 percent
• 2016, Week 6: 79.7 percent
In general, Butler doesn’t play more than 25-35 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. There’s clear causation here: When Dez is out, Brice is in.
Here’s how Butler did in his six games as the wannabe Dez:
That comes out to an average of 6.5 targets per game for a 3/46.2/0.33 stat line and 9.3 DK and 7.7 FD PPG.
In Week 17, Brice has salary-based expectations of 7.58 DK and 4.25 FD PPG.
Earlier this week I wrote about how the Cowboys should rest their starters. Even though it seems that core players will see some snaps, I doubt that they’ll play more than a few series.
Brice could play significant snaps against the Eagles, who this season have allowed WR units to score 41.5 DK and 33.7 FD PPG — the fifth- and third-highest marks in the league.
Remember: Brice is a highly speculative Week 17 play.
Alshon Jeffery ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD) and Cameron Meredith ($5,200 DK, $5,800 FD): Over the last two weeks, Alshon has 19 targets. He’s back:
Amazingly, Alshon’s return hasn’t prevented Meredith from producing. In fact, Alshon’s presence on the field seems to be a boon for Meredith.
In Weeks 12-14, Meredith was targeted seven times per game from QB Matt Barkley. In Weeks 15-16 — the only weeks in which Barkley, Alshon, and Meredith have all played together — Meredith had 12.5 targets per game and was an absolute beast, averaging a 9/119.5/0.5 line:
The Bears are six-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points against the Vikings, who this year have held WR units to 31.6 DK and 25.2 FD PPG — the third- and fourth-lowest marks in the league.
Whatever.
If you’re using multiple GPP lineups and not double-stacking Barkley-Jeffery-Meredith in at least one of them, you no longer have the joy of being a child.
Doug Baldwin ($7,200 DK, $7,100 FD): The Seahawks are 10-point road favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the 49ers, who are 28th in pass DVOA. Baldwin is expected to run most of his routes against slot CB Keith Reaser, who has a poor PFF coverage grade of 58.1 and allows a top-10 average of 0.43 fantasy points per route defended.
The Seahawks have a chance to clinch the No. 2 seed with a victory. They’re playing to win.
Baldwin is fifth in the NFL with a 29.66 percent share of his team’s targets over the last four games. Last game alone he had 19 targets. We’re projecting him to be one of the slate’s chalkiest players.
The Super Models
There are currently two non-Julio WRs at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Michael Thomas: $6,700 DK, $6,700 FD
• Rishard Matthews: $4,100 DK, $5,800 FD
Bang a gong.
Historic
Thomas is having a great rookie campaign. People know that it’s ‘great’ — but they don’t truly appreciate what it means. He’s not just first on his team with 82 receptions and eight TDs and second with 107 targets and 981 yards receiving.
He’s a mere 19 yards away from hitting the 1,000-yard threshold as a rookie. RBs can practically fall forward 250 times and get 1,000 yards as rookies, but that mark is much harder to hit for first-year WRs.
Since 1978, when the league expanded the regular season from 14 to 16 games, there have been only 16 rookie WRs to hit 1,000 yards:
Thomas isn’t in consideration for just Week 17. He could be in play for the next decade.
He’s the highest-rated FD WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models. He’s one of only six NFL players with double-digit targets inside the 10-yard line.
The Saints are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score 24.5 points against the Falcons in a game with a slate-high 56.5-point over/under.
Thomas and Brandin Cooks ($6,900 DK, $7,100 FD) are the chalky options at 13-16 percent projected ownership. Willie Snead ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD) is the arbitrage option: He has the lowest median projections of the group — but the highest Projected Plus/Minus values. Check out Snead’s FD ceiling projection. Shh!
No matter who you roster, it’s hard to go wrong.
What He Has Going For Him . . .
. . . is that he’s not Tajae Sharpe ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD). He’s also cheaper than any lead WR should be.
Ever since he started transitioning into the WR1 role in Week 5, Matthews has been very productive from a salary-based perspective:
That said, he’s in something of a bad spot. The Titans are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 22 points. That Vegas total is low, and Matthews has actually been at his worst this year as a home favorite:
That those numbers don’t immediately look horrible indicates how good he’s been in general.
Additionally, the Titans are hosting the Texans, who this weekend will “play to win” according to head coach Bill O’Brien, even though the team is locked in as the No. 4 seed. If the Texans compete, that won’t be good for Matthews, as the Texans this year have held WR units to 33.0 DK and 25.7 FD PPG — the fifth-lowest totals in the league.
Finally, staring QB Marcus Mariota (ankle) is out, and the offense will be ‘led’ by Matt Cassel, who since 2011 has completed only 58.9 percent of his passes for 6.5 yards per attempt and a 36:42 TD/interception ratio. It’s possible that Cassel has actually been the worst QB in the NFL for the last six years.
Matthews is the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geeks Models. He’s cheap and targeted enough to have a good chance of reaching his salary-based expectations despite the bad spot — but his DK and FD floor projections are unspeakably low.
The Coda
Over the last five weeks, Jordy and OBJ lead all WRs in fantasy PPG. Guess who the WR3 is. I’ll give you five tries.
• Julio
• Antonio
• Hilton
• Evans
• Thomas
All of those were good guesses, but you’re wrong.
The mystery WR is . . .
. . . Tyreek Hill ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD). Sure, the guy has only eight targets and no receptions over his last two games. What’s your point? 11 TDs in 15 games isn’t ‘variance.’ How he gets the TDs is random, but that he actually gets them isn’t.
The Chiefs can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and a Raiders loss. They’re likely to put their best playmaker in a position to make some plays.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
