We’re looking at six games tonight, and, per the Vegas dashboard, the totals of the top two games are currently at least 11.5 points higher than those of the other four games. Let’s try to make sense of it.
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
Vegas: 205 over/under, Hornets -6.5
A lot of value tonight depends on Marco Belinelli’s availability. He’s missed the past two and a half games because of a sprained left ankle, and he’s presently listed as out in the Hornets’ game notes. During his absence, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has played at least 30 minutes in consecutive games for the first time since the beginning of the month and Jeremy Lamb has become a focal point in the second unit. Lamb will be one of several value plays at shooting guard, and Kidd-Gilchrist offers plenty of value on FanDuel with his 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Cody Zeller dislocated his ring finger in the first half of last night’s win, but he played until coach Steve Clifford benched his starters at the end of the third quarter. I expect Zeller to suit up tonight, and he’ll provide solid value on both sites with a position-leading Opponent Plus/Minus.
The Hornets have been blocked more than all but two teams on a per-game basis this season. Hassan Whiteside ranks fifth among players in blocks per game and third in double-doubles. He may have floundered on Tuesday, but he gets a nice matchup tonight. Based on the center player pool, Whiteside profiles as a cash play. The last time the Heat played the Hornets, he contributed a team-high 42.25 DraftKings points in 27 minutes. Injuries may be limiting his upside, but prior to last game, he exceeded 40.0 DraftKings points in eight straight contests.
Goran Dragic participated in morning shootaround, and coach Erik Spoelstra is hopeful that Dragic can warm up with the intent to play. Dragic missed the previous game due to back spasms, and after shootaround he said, “It’s still sore but at least I’ve got range of motion back.” Even though he’s optimistic about his chance to play and point guards have had success when facing the Hornets this season, it’s difficult to recommend Dragic aside from small tournament shares. His absence was detrimental to the Heat’s offensive success on Tuesday, but Tyler Johnson should receive enough minutes if Dragic is ruled out to return value. Johnson’s problem is his salary, which falls right in the middle of being cheap enough to roster and not expensive enough to be a strong pivot in tournaments given the available player pool.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas: 198.5 over/under, Grizzlies -2
Russell Westbrook remains the best tournament option on the slate. The Grizzlies may lead the NBA in Defensive Rating this season, but over the past five games, they’ve yielded at least 109 points on four occasions and dropped to 20th in Defensive Rating over that time frame. Westbrook averaged 72.96 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes per game over the past six games, and the perceived negative matchup has dropped his salary to $12,500 on FanDuel.
The minimal concern I have regarding Westbrook magnifies for the rest of the team. The Thunder are presently implied to score less than 100 points for the second time this season. Among all teams with a Vegas implication between 95.5 and 102.5, the Thunder’s cumulative -3.92 DraftKings Plus/Minus is the worst. That 19 percent Consistency could use some help as well. While I’m not inclined to fade Westbrook, the rest of the Thunder are off my radar.
Wade Baldwin was recalled from the D-League, and that may be in preparation for another Mike Conley absence. Conley is dealing with a left toe injury that caused him to miss the previous game, and Andrew Harrison was forced to play 44 minutes as the only healthy point guard on the team. Coach David Fizdale expects Conley and Chandler Parsons to play, but we likely won’t know for sure until later this evening. (Parsons hasn’t played more than 15 minutes over the past three games.) If Conley is unable to play, Harrison will likely share minutes with Baldwin, limiting his overall appeal. If he does suit up, Conley should garner tournament shares, as point guards facing the Thunder this season have been a smashing success. Even Josh Richardson, who is a shooting guard but started at point guard on Tuesday sans Dragic, provided 35.75 DraftKings points as Westbrook’s matchup.
Marc Gasol is always in the tournament mix if Conley doesn’t play. In the nine previous games sans Conley, Gasol averaged 47.94 DraftKings points, a 27.6 percent usage rate, and a 29.4 percent assist rate — all team-highs. He currently leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on both platforms, but Conley would need to be ruled out before I pulled the trigger.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas: 216.5 over/under, Cavaliers -6.5
This is the prime game to target. The Vegas total is the second-highest on the slate, with a difference of 11.5 points between this game and the game with the third-highest Vegas total.
When these two teams last met, Tristan Thompson posted 15 points and 14 rebounds and Al Horford and Jae Crowder didn’t play. Both teams scored at least 122 points in regulation.
Since the beginning of December — roughly the same time Horford returned from a concussion — the Celtics rank seventh in Defensive Rating, allowing 103.4 points per 100 possessions. Over that span, during which LeBron James has averaged 38.1 minutes per game, the Cavaliers’ Offensive Rating of 110.1 ranks fifth in the league. James leads all small forwards in projected ownership on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he produced 59.75 DraftKings points in the first game against the Celtics this season. The Cavaliers have had two days between games, and they’ll get another day of rest tomorrow. James is an extremely sturdy option in cash games, and considering the rest of the small forward field, I understand the projected popularity in tournaments.
Kyrie Irving didn’t practice on Wednesday because of an illness, but he’s expected to play tonight. In the previous meeting, he was guarded by Avery Bradley and recorded 37 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. Both teams will likely cross-match, and DeAndre Liggins will guard Isaiah Thomas since he’s spent the last three games taking the opposing starting point guard. This alignment makes me like Bradley more as a tournament option, especially considering the value at shooting guard today. The decision between Irving and Thomas comes down to offensive market share: Thomas ranks seventh in the NBA with a 32.9 percent usage rate and Irving plays on a team with LeBron. Thomas costs $100 more than Irving on FanDuel and DraftKings, but Irving doesn’t have to face Liggins, who’s fourth among shooting guards with a +1.11 Defensive Real Plus/Minus. Because Thomas has the higher floor and ceiling, he’s the obvious choice. Toss in Irving’s illness, and it makes the decision easier. However, since Thomas is the obvious choice, Irving makes sense as the leverage play in tournaments.
The power forward spot is murky outside of Kevin Love, whose floor is nearly 10 points higher than that of the next closest power forward. He leads all starting power forwards in DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus and has projected ownership of at least 41 percent in FanDuel GPPs. Love recorded 40.1 FanDuel points against the Celtics earlier this season, a mark that would easily exceed his implied point total today.
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz
Vegas: 195.5 over/under, Jazz -14
Joel Embiid and Gerald Henderson won’t play for the Sixers, leaving two holes in the starting lineup. Ersan Ilyasova will likely start at power forward, and with Richaun Holmes dealing with a concussion and not with the team, Nerlens Noel is expected to play substantial minutes off the bench as the lone backup center. Coach Brett Brown has shown a proclivity to keep Nik Stauskas in a reserve role, and the last time Henderson missed a game, Hollis Thompson started. That’s a lot of names and questionable value against a team ranked 29th in pace and 4th in Defensive Rating, allowing 101.7 points per 100 possessions. The universal advice is to ignore the Sixers in cash games and practice moderation in tournaments.
Gordon Hayward was the lone Jazz starter to meet salary-based expectations against the Lakers on Tuesday, and he remains cheap enough on FanDuel to warrant cash-game consideration.
Rodney Hood reportedly lost 10 pounds due to the recent illness he suffered, and after Tuesday’s win in which he played 25 minutes and shot 1-of-7 from the field, Hood told reporters that he played at about 50 percent. He was likely battling fatigue, and he’s a dicey proposition despite the persistent salary decrease. That said, his salary-implied point total of 16.74 on FanDuel is too low to overlook. Although he’s never been a traditional tournament target, he’s cheap enough to roster in GPPs today. The concern in cash games stems from his health, and I don’t know when or if he’ll be 100 percent.
George Hill could return to the lineup after missing the past 13 games because of a toe injury. After Tuesday’s practice, coach Quin Snyder said that Hill probably won’t be on a minutes restriction when he returns. Hill did not participate in morning shootaround, and we won’t know his official status until prior to tip-off. Hill’s return will affect Shelvin Mack, who will cling to relevancy as a value play with Dante Exum already ruled out. If Hill plays, Mack’s value dissipates.
Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 224 over/under, Raptors -9
Both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. None of the Suns’ starters played more than 29 minutes on Wednesday, whereas Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan each played at least 39 minutes.
We’re waiting to hear how the Raptors will manage DeMarre Carroll on the second night of a back-to-back set. He’s yet to play on consecutive days this season, and coach Dwane Casey pinpointed the new year as the time the restriction could be lifted. In the five games Carroll rested this season, Norman Powell joined the starting unit and averaged 25.3 FanDuel points in 30.3 minutes per game. It appears DraftKings is hip to Carroll’s rest pattern, as they’ve jacked Powell’s salary up from the minimum to $4,300. Powell remains cheap enough on FanDuel ($3,500) to plug into all lineups if Carroll is given the night off, but he’s just one of the many value plays at shooting guard on the six-game slate.
Lowry leads all point guards with 100 percent Consistency on DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month, and his playing time has not dipped below 30 minutes in any game this season. He ranks third among players with 37.1 minutes per game, and in the games Carroll has rested, Lowry’s minutes have slightly increased to 37.7 per game. He leads all point guards in Opponent Plus/Minus, and the only concern (which hasn’t been a concern) will be the minute allocation. The nine-point spread invites a bit of uncertainty. When the spread has been within two points of today’s number, here are the results for Lowry:
Jared Dudley hasn’t played the past two games, and that’s allowed Dragan Bender to enter the rotation. Coach Earl Watson has professed to the media that Bender deserves more playing time, and after Tuesday’s practice, he reiterated, “We have to find a way to get [Bender] in the game.” Bender has played 27 minutes in consecutive games (both blowout losses), and he was on the court in each of the last two first quarters. We haven’t had a first-quarter Bender sighting since December 7. He’s no longer extremely cheap, climbing to $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, but if you’re looking to toss some darts in tournaments, Bender will benefit from likely being in the rotation as well as on the court if the game becomes a blowout.
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 204 over/under, Lakers -3
These teams last played on November 8th, and according to NBA.com, they recorded a pace of 92.38, which is lower than the Mavericks’ league-low average pace of 93.14 possessions per 48 minutes. Despite the clash of play styles — the Lakers are currently ranked fourth in pace — the Vegas total is the third-lowest on the slate. You can be selective with this game since the Lakers allow 109.8 points per 100 possessions, the second-worst mark in the league. The Mavs and Lakers rank second-to-last and last, respectively, in opponent field-goal percentage this season.
The Mavericks are playing their third game in four nights, and Andrew Bogut will likely rest tonight or tomorrow. He played 10 total minutes in the previous game, and Dirk Nowitzki has yet to play in the second half since making his return from an Achilles injury. They muddle up the frontcourt rotation and make it difficult to use Dwight Powell as a punt play.
Seth Curry will provide value off the bench at shooting guard. He’s averaged a +7.96 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the past seven games while playing an average of 26.4 minutes per game. He already posted 41.5 DraftKings points against the Lakers earlier this season, accentuating his value off the bench. On the other side of the court, Nick Young costs the same on DraftKings and $200 more on FanDuel, leaving shooting guard as the position to spend down on. Young wasn’t as prolific against the Mavericks as Curry was against the Lakers, but he’s cheaper than the alternatives on the Lakers’ bench, making him an easier sell than Lou Williams or Jordan Clarkson in what will be a slow-paced game.
Good luck!
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