Last week, I introduced an idea called DFS Team Rankings based on a combination of our Bargain Rating and Vegas implied point totals. Essentially, we’re just looking at the combination of the two together to look at which teams are valued the most or least by DraftKings and FanDuel.
The reason this is valuable is because you should be as price sensitive as possible, especially in cash games. I’ve said this before, but it’s DFS 101 to figure out these days which players are the best plays — between podcasts, articles, etc., that’s easy — but the experts always know where the best plays are. It’s like playing the stock market — you can like a stock, but it’s obviously more advantageous for you to know where/when it’s priced the lowest and capitalize on those moments.
Anyway, here’s the chart for Week 4. I did a screenshot of Excel this week instead of a table like I did in Week 3 — I felt it was a little cramped and this way I can add in all the Autumn-y colors. I don’t know about you, but it’s getting colder where I live and definitely feeling like Fall.
Between Tyrod Taylor and Karlos Williams, the Bills will be incredibly popular plays in all contest formats this weekend, and as you can see, you’ll want to really get your exposure to them on DraftKings. The Colts come in as the #2 team on DraftKings and both T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief look to be great plays, especially pairing one or both with QB Andrew Luck.
The 49ers are interesting this week, and a lot of our models really like Colin Kaepernick at home against the Packers. They’re sizable underdogs at +8, but that could force Kaepernick to use his legs and throw the ball a lot to come back in the second half. He’s definitely an interesting GPP play in Week 4.
On the FanDuel side, the Bears come in as the #1 team, despite the low implied point total of 20.8 against the Raiders. They’re three-point dogs at home and starting Jimmy Clausen, but this could be a week to target Matt Forte — he’s not susceptible to game flow like a lot of running backs due to his pass-catching ability and he could be underowned in tournaments because of the bargain RBs available in Karlos Williams, Devonta Freeman, and potentially Thomas Rawls.
The Seahawks are the only team on the slate that have a top-10 ranking on both sites, but that would change if Marshawn Lynch doesn’t play. These numbers are reflective of him playing, but if he’s not able to go and Rawls starts, it would bump the Seahawks up to the top of the list on DraftKings and down to middle of the pack on FanDuel, because of Rawls’ minimum price tag.
Good luck in Week 4!
