The Week 17 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 17 Quarterbacks
“I tell my younger friends that no matter how I go, I want it reported that I drowned in moonlight, strangled by my own bra.”
— Carrie Fisher
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s QB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 10:18.
Moving on . . .
A Few More Words
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
QB Pricing
Pricing is all over the place because it’s Week 17. Some teams have no incentive to play. Other teams have every incentive. For a global perspective on this week’s league dynamics, consult my piece on the current playoff picture.
Even with the randomness Week 17 provides, some trends hold true. As has been the case for weeks, QB salaries are inflated on FanDuel and deflated on DraftKings (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
On FD, only three QBs have Bargain Ratings above 80 percent. On DK, 13 QBs hit that threshold. On FD, the most expensive QB has the slate’s third-highest salary; on DK, ninth. It’s easier to acquire QB Plus/Minus on DK than FD. Arbitrage where/when you can.
No Consensus
For several weeks in the middle of the season, we had the same group of QBs forming a consensus tier atop the DK and FD salary scales. This group was sometimes the Big Five and occasionally the Big Seven.
Over the past several weeks, though, consensus was limited. In Weeks 13-14, we had the Big One (Who Must Not Be Named). In Week 15, we had the Big Two. In last week’s QB Breakdown, we had another Big One.
And now this week we have the Big Zero, which feels like a metaphor for something and probably is.
It’s been five weeks since we had a larger consensus top tier because DK and FD each week have had notable pricing differences for some top QBs.
For instance, this week . . .
• The FD QB1 is the DK QB5.
• The FD QB4 is the DK QB7.
• The FD QB7 is the DK QB13.
• The DK QB2 is the FD QB6.
• The DK QB6 is the FD QB15.
In a normal week we would see some salary divergence, but it’s amplified in this slate because . . . it’s Week 17.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
E.J. Manuel ($5,000 DK, $5,000 FD): Yeah, baby. Stone minimum on both sites, Manuel is starting for the Bills in the wake of the Rex Ryan firing and Tyrod Taylor benching. Manuel is almost certainly a #BadRealLifeQB, but in his two starts last year filling in for Taylor he was a good fantasy play. Per our Trends tool:
To the extent that anything in Week 17 can be great, Manuel has a great matchup. The Bills are facing the Jets, who are 31st against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and have an extreme funnel defense that is third in rush DVOA and flows toward the passing game like . . .
The Bills are 2.75-point road favorites with an implied Vegas total of 22.75 points.
It’s not great for Manuel that he’s in a late-season division game, but it’s also probably not a big deal because 1) everyone is in division this week and 2) the normal seasonal dynamics likely don’t apply to him as a backup.
In this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan’s bold call was that Manuel would pass for at least 300 yards. That might seem outlandish, but 1) that’s what makes it a bold call, and 2) Manuel averaged 280.5 yards passing in his two starts last year. Against the Jets defense, almost anything is possible.
Manuel has FantasyLabs ownership projections of only zero to one percent, and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
For old times’ sake.
Blake Bortles ($5,600 DK, $7,600 FD): Since breaking out last year, Bortles has been a GOAT as a road underdog . . .
The Jaguars are 4.5-point road underdogs. Bortles is right at home.
And it doesn’t hurt that he’s playing against a Colts defense ranked 27th in pass DVOA and allowing 19.2 DK and 18.4 FD points per game (PPG).
Playing Bortles in cash games is just asking to be nut-punched — but in GPPs at zero to one percent projected ownership???
Sometimes I miss being seventeen.
Carson Wentz ($5,200 DK, $6,900 FD): The Cowboys have no reason to play hard for the full 60 minutes, the Eagles are incentivized to give Wentz as much action as possible, and they’re four-point favorites implied to score 23.5 points. Against favored QBs, the Cowboys have been fairly generous:
Of course, the last time Wentz hit 20 fantasy points in a game was Week 3.
Andrew Luck ($6,700 DK, $8,400 FD): The Colts are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Jaguars, who are a middle-of-the-road 16th in pass DVOA.
The Colts are out of the playoffs at 7-8, but Luck is perhaps playing for the jobs of the men who brought him to the team, head coach Chuck Pagano and General Manager Ryan Grigson — and even if we don’t want to walk down Narrative Street it’s easy to see that Luck is in a good spot. He has negligible division/non-division splits, and he also has negligible favorite/underdog splits when he’s at home, where he’s been a top-five fantasy QB over the last three years:
With much of the ownership expected to go to the QBs who have something to play for, Luck could be under-rostered at his five to eight percent projected ownership.
Landry Jones ($5,000 DK, $6,000 FD): With the Steelers locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC, they plan to rest QB Ben Roethlisberger as well as running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown (per our NFL News feed). As a result, Jones will get the start, and he’s (perhaps?) in a good spot.
Who knows how much the Steelers will throw the ball in what’s essentially an exhibition game, but they’re six-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Browns, who defensively are 30th in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score league-high totals of 21.0 DK and 19.9 FD PPG.
In his three career games as the team’s primary QB, he really hasn’t been any worse than Wentz. Per RotoViz:
It’s really hard to think of Landry as a legitimate option — and he probably isn’t — but how can I not point this out to you?
If Landry goes off, it will be easy to see how it happened.
Matt Cassel ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD): The Titans are three-point home favorites playing against a Texans team that is locked into the No. 4 seed and has no reason to play hard, but . . .
- Cassel sucks.
- Texans head coach Bill O’Brien says that the team will “play to win” this weekend.
- The Texans defense is ninth in pass DVOA and has held QBs to 15.4 DK and 15.0 FD PPG — the third-lowest totals in the league.
- Cassel still sucks.
If we could project him for less than zero percent ownership in guaranteed prize pools, we would.
Carson Palmer ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD): The Cardinals are six-point road favorites implied to score 23.25 points against the Rams, who defensively are 21st in pass DVOA.
Over the last two years, Palmer has played three games without former Cardinals WR Michael Floyd. In those games, J.J. Nelson has emerged as a force, averaging a 4/104/1 stat line on eight targets per game, and Palmer has also been very good:
Ever since defensive end Robert Quinn (concussion) went on injured reserve, QBs have exploited the Rams defense:
Palmer’s projected for less than five percent ownership on both sites.
Philip Rivers ($6,300 DK, $7,700 FD): The Chargers are 5.5-point underdogs. They’re implied to score only 19.25 points. And they’re playing against the Chiefs, who have a shot at the No. 2 seed with a win and whose defense is fourth in pass DVOA.
So it’s a bad spot for Rivers — but maybe it’s not all bad. The Chiefs have been the third-worst team against home QBs this year:
And maybe the Chargers will find it within themselves not to suck in presumably their last game in San Diego. That said, I wouldn’t count on it. Rivers has been uninspiring as a home underdog in his four years with head coach Mike McCoy:
Colin Kaepernick ($5,100 DK, $7,200 FD): Kaep sucks as a passer — he has a career-low completion rate of only 57.7 percent this year — but he’s managed to have only one awful fantasy performance this year, and that was an excusable performance in the snow. On the whole, Konami Code Colin has been a reliable DFS starter this year:
It’s hard to ignore a starting QB averaging 45.2 rushing yards per game.
The 49ers are 10-point home underdogs implied to score 16.75 points against the Seahawks, who are holding QBs to 15.9 DK and 15.2 FD PPG.
All of that seems awful, but running QBs minimize the effects of negative Vegas lines, and Kaep has still produced even though the 49ers have scored only 17.5 PPG in his 10 starts.
Despite having subpar median and floor projections, Kaepernick actually has the second-highest ceiling projection on FD, where he has zero to one percent projected ownership.
Alex Smith ($5,000 DK, $6,600 FD): The Chiefs are still in the running for the No. 2 seed — and somehow Smith is the minimum on DK. That says a lot. They’re 5.5-point road favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Chargers, who are dead.
It might seem like a decent spot, but the Chargers defense is fifth in pass DVOA, and Smith has been an abomination on the road this season:
And as a road favorite . . .
. . . he’s been a DFS disaster. The sample is small — but this season Smith has sucked across samples of all sizes.
Tom Savage ($5,400 DK, $6,600 FD): I’m not recommending that you play Savage. Really I just want to point out that since Week 6 basically the only QB on earth not to abuse the Titans . . .
. . . was Smith. That‘s how much he sucks.
By the way, if we knew that the Texans planned to play Savage for an entire game against the Titans, he might be intriguing — but they probably won’t.
Matt Barkley ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): Last week I said this:
Barkley throws interceptions like
hot moms hand out Halloween candyJay Cutler — but he’s still a viable option.
Five interceptions and a positive Plus/Minus performance later . . .
The Bears are five-point road underdogs implied to score 18 points against the Vikings, who (despite being 10th in pass DVOA) have allowed QBs ever since their bye week to be at least competent at amazingly low ownership:
With Barkley as the starting QB, the Bears offense is much improved . . .
. . . and the wannabe eyewear model hasn’t been the worst QB ever:
Since the Vegas lines opened, the Bears’ implied point total has moved up 0.75 points even though the over/under has stayed the same and ‘just’ 50 percent of the betting public is on the Bears. Early indications are that the smart money is on the Bears.
Jameis Winston ($6,100 DK, $7,800 FD): The Buccaneers are five-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Panthers, who are allowing 19.6 DK and 18.2 FD PPG to opposing QBs.
There could be more to say about Winston, but I’m not really in the mood.
Tom Brady ($7,200 DK, $9,100 FD): The Patriots are 10-point road favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the Dolphins, who have allowed QBs to score 20.3 DK and 19.3 FD PPG — the fourth-highest totals in the league.
Brady seems to be in a good spot. That said, Brady should be approached with caution. (By the way, I said the same thing last week.)
Brady throughout his entire career hasn’t been his best in division games . . .
. . . and the Pats and Brady have consistently been less than their best against divisional opponents in the last month of the season:
With a win the Patriots will clinch the No. 1 seed, so they’re highly motivated — and the Dolphins aren’t, since they’re locked into the playoffs as a wild card — but none of that means that Brady will need to have a big performance for the Pats to win.
Since his Week 9 bye, Brady has been mediocre at best:
If you wanted to fade Brady outright, I wouldn’t blame you.
Cam Newton ($6,200 DK, $7,800 FD): The Panthers are five-point road underdogs implied to score 24.5 points against the Bucs. That doesn’t seem good, but Newton’s one of the rare QBs with positive division/non-division splits . . .
. . . and being a road dog has had virtually no effect on Newton’s production throughout his career:
So the spot might not be horrible for Newton.
At the same time, the Bucs defense is sixth in pass DVOA, and Newton has been troublesome since his Week 7 bye:
We’re projecting him for zero to one percent ownership.
Drew Brees ($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD): This week the 7-8 Saints have a chance to keep the rival Falcons from clinching a first-round bye. They’re not fighting for a playoff spot, but the Saints might be one of the most incentivized non-playoff teams of the week.
The problem is that Brees isn’t at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, and he hasn’t been great against divisional opponents on the road ever since joining the Saints in 2006:
On top of that, this split has been much worse over the last half decade:
It’s hard to downgrade Brees because he is the QB2 on the season with 23.82 DK and 21.75 FD PPG and in such a seemingly good spot. Even though they’re on the road, the Saints are implied to score 24.5 points against the Falcons, who defensively are 24th in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 20.6 DK and 19.8 FD PPG — the second- and third-highest totals in the league.
Additionally, while no one thinks that the Falcons defense is actually good, it’s been bad at home this year — worse at home than on the road. Visiting QBs have done well against the Falcons:
But, still, even with all of that . . . the spot isn’t good for Brees. The Saints are 7.5-point underdogs, and Brees has been a subpar version of himself as a road underdog, especially for the last five years:
Throughout his entire tenure with the Saints, Brees has struggled as a divisional road dog:
Brees has top-three median projections on both sites and will probably destroy the Falcons in a shootout, just as lesser QBs have destroyed the Falcons all season. After all, Brees leads the NFL with 623 pass attempts, 442 completions, 4,858 yards, 47 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line, and 21 TDs from inside the 10.
If you’re using multiple GPP lineups and not stacking Brees and a receiver in at least one of them, you have a heart of stone — especially given his reasonable nine to 12 percent ownership — but going overweight on Brees could be dangerous.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD): A-Rod is the 2016 QB1 with 24.79 DK and 23.52 FD PPG. Despite being tied for ‘only’ the sixth-most pass attempts at 571, he leads the league with 102 red-zone attempts and 27 red-zone touchdowns passing. The 9-6 Packers have won five straight games, are competing for a playoff spot, and have a 26.5-point implied total as 3.5-point favorites over the Lions, whose defense is dead last in pass DVOA.
Since the Vegas lines opened, the Packers’ implied total has risen, as the over/under has increased by 1.5 points. This game to decide the NFC North champ could easily be a shootout.
One issue is that the Packers are on the road, and throughout his career Rodgers has been less than his best self on the road against division opponents in the second half of seasons:
And he’s been especially unimpressive as a divisional visitor in the final month of campaigns:
It’s hard to fade A-Rod in this spot, as the Packers are incentivized and Rodgers has been a beast ever since RB Eddie Lacy went on IR . . .
. . . but the long-term trends are not in Rodgers’ favor. Some caution is advised.
Kirk Cousins ($6,500 DK, $7,900 FD): The Redskins are playing against the Giants, who this season have held QBs to only 14.3 DK and 13.5 FD PPG (the second-lowest totals in the league) — but the Giants are locked into the No. 5 seed and unlikely to play to win. They are expected to rest a number of core starters on both sides of the ball.
Cousins has been a division destroyer in his three years with head coach Jay Gruden . . .
. . . and the Redskins are seven-point home favorites implied to score 26 points.
If the Redskins win this game, they are in the playoffs (barring a Packers-Lions tie). They’re a motivated team facing an almost nonexistent opponent. As far as Week 17 goes, the spot could not be better.
The Super Models
As I write this, two QBs are atop our Pro Models:
• Matthew Stafford: $6,000 DK, $8,000 FD
• Russell Wilson: $6,800 DK, $7,600 FD
“Middle Fingers Up”
Stafford can claim all he wants that his dislocated middle finger isn’t a problem, but . . .
. . . in the three games he’s played with the injury Stafford has been a douche liability:
In reality he’s been even worse than those numbers suggest, inflating his production with two unrepresentative rushing TDs over the last three weeks.
But there’s some hope for Stafford this week. The Lions are at home and competing for the NFC North championship against the Packers, who this season have allowed QBs to score 19.9 DK and 18.6 FD PPG — the league’s fifth- and seventh-highest totals. All of that is good.
Then again, the Lions are underdogs implied to score only 23 points, and Stafford has been uninspiring as a home dog:
In fact, despite being his best at home . . .
. . . Stafford has underperformed as a home dog his entire career:
He’s cheap on DK, where he leads the slate with seven Pro Trends and sports a 94 percent Bargain Rating — and that’s why he ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models — but he’s risky given his injury and splits.
“I’m Sorry, Wilson! Wilson, I’m Sorry!”
In Weeks 13-14, Wilson was one of the worst QBs in North America:
In Weeks 15-16, he was the most productive QB in the NFL:
This season Wilson has basically been a bipolar roller. In any given week, it’s been hard to predict which Wilson will appear.
This week, though, we’re expecting good R-Will to show. He has top-four median and top-two floor projections, and the Seahawks are 10-point favorites implied to score 26.75 points against the 49ers, who defensively are 28th in pass DVOA.
The Seahawks are motivated to win — they are still in play for the No. 2 seed in the NFC — and Wilson leads the slate with a +4.93 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where he ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models.
With less than nine percent projected ownership, the visiting Wilson could slay a 49ers team that’s allowed non-injured full-time QBs to dominate:
Ridiculously cheap on FD, Wilson is viable for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools.
The Coda
Matt Ryan ($7,400 DK, $8,700 FD) is priced as the QB3, so he’s not cheap, but he’s the QB3 on the season with 22.81 DK and 21.67 FD PPG, and he has the slate’s highest median and ceiling projections.
Sarah Marshall’s husband is in a great spot. The Falcons are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 32 points in a shootout with the Saints, who are 29th in pass DVOA. In control of their destiny, the Falcons will clinch the No. 2 seed with a win. They’re motivated.
The Falcons lead the NFL with 33.5 PPG scored. They’re facing a dead 7-8 Saints team allowing 27.7 PPG — the league’s third-highest total. While a number of other QBs will play in not-horrible-but-not-great December weather, Ryan will be in a dome.
In terms of overall production and advanced efficiency, Ryan is undoubtedly a top QB. Per Player Profiler:
With Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator, Ryan has had positive division/non-division splits over the last two years . . .
. . . and he’s been a beast at home against the NFC South in that time frame:
One potential issue for Ryan is that, although stud WR Julio Jones (toe) returned to action in Week 16, he might not be a featured part of the passing game. Last week Julio played a season-low 62 percent of the offensive snaps.
Since Julio entered the league, Ryan has been better when he’s given his No. 1 WR at least eight targets in a game than when he hasn’t. Per RotoViz:
Ryan throws more TDs with eight-target Julio — but the big difference is his yardage: Without a target-heavy Julio, Ryan tends not to accumulate the yardage he needs to be a top performer. Even with relatively big games over the last two weeks, Ryan has still averaged only 266.7 yards per game, which highlights a disturbing recent trend: Ryan has 300-plus passing yards in a game only once in the past 10 weeks.
He’s still been good in that time, but the drop-off in his performance is apparent:
Fewer TDs, more INTs, fewer yards, fewer fantasy points: That’s not the recent performance you want to see.
That said, Ryan still has positive Plus/Minus values and Consistency Ratings above 50 percent over that time. He leads the NFL with an 82.2 Total QBR (per ESPN), and he’s also first with 9.3 yards per pass attempt and a 6.8 percent TD rate.
We’re projecting him for slate-high 17-20 percent ownership.
BOLD CALL ALERT: After he goes 300/3 against the Saints, Ryan will finish first in MVP voting . . . right after Rodgers.
Boldness is in the eye of the bebolder . . .
. . . yes, that was a pun.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
