Thursday brings a five-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Chris Paul is the most expensive point guard on both sites, and he gets to play without Blake Griffin for the foreseeable future. It’s an even trade-off: In 47 games without Griffin since last season, Paul has averaged a team-high 28.6 percent usage rate, a 53.4 percent assist rate (which would rank second this season behind Russell Westbrook’s 55.1 percent mark), and 1.4 FanDuel points per minute. The Clippers offense will subsist on 1-5 pick-and-rolls, J.J. Redick spot-ups, and Jamal Crawford isolations. When you see the Clippers implied to score a slate-low 100.75 points and scheduled to play the fourth-ranked defense, know that Paul will be the orchestrator of a team that averaged an 115.6 offensive rating without Griffin over the past year and a half.
Value
Goran Dragic leads all point guards in Opponent Plus/Minus and faces a Lakers team ranked eighth in pace and 27th in defensive rating over the past 15 games. He wasn’t his prolific self in a double-overtime loss to the Magic on Tuesday, posting 31 DraftKings points in 45 minutes, but he has the best matchup on the slate for point guards. It’s difficult to avoid utilizing Dragic in cash games while Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington, and Rodney McGruder remain sidelined. During the month of December, he’s averaged a career-high 29.2 percent usage rate and 36.58 FanDuel points, which is 6.23 points above today’s salary-based expectation.
Leverage Play
Jeff Teague has posted four straight games of at least 41 FanDuel points, and both Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis were ruled out of tonight’s game. We have a four-game sample of what Teague can do when Stuckey and Ellis are not available in the same game, and it’s resulted in a +16.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Teague’s current projected GPP ownership sits below the marks of Paul, Dragic, and Stephen Curry. He possesses the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus among point guards and makes for an excellent pivot away from Dragic.
Shooting Guard
Stud
One player continues to hit his salary-implied total when the Warriors are double-digit favorites: Klay Thompson. In 22 such games this season, he’s provided a +4.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 77.3 percent Consistency. He also leads all shooting guards in Opponent Plus/Minus today. The concern on this slate is the obvious blowout potential facing the Nets, a team ranked first in pace and 28th in defensive rating. The Warriors are implied by Vegas to score a slate-best 121.5 points, but they are also 15-point favorites. I mention Thompson mainly because the shooting guard pool is shallow, and if you have spare change in tournaments, spending up on Thompson in a few lineups could create enough separation at the position to justify the cost.
Values
J.J. Redick and Evan Fournier offer significant value on FanDuel, but, to be frank, shooting guard is a wasteland today, especially on DraftKings.
When Redick is on, he can provide a similar performance to his 35.6-point FanDuel outing on Tuesday. When he’s not making seven 3-pointers in a game, his median outcome is around 24 fantasy points, as he’ll score around 18 to 22 actual points and provide one or two rebounds/assists. The Spurs may opt to stick Tony Parker on Redick and Danny Green on CP3 to start the game. In that scenario, I’ll place my chips on Redick to outrun Parker in all his routes.
Fournier has been diagnosed with a right shin injury, but coach Frank Vogel expects Fournier to suit up. Shooting guards have been a fantastic play against the Knicks this season, and Fournier has routinely exceeded 25 FanDuel points this month. We should get word on Fournier’s status before the main slate locks, and barring an imposed minute restriction, he’ll offer a solid safety net compared to the rest of the options.
Leverage Play
We’ve touched on Thompson, Redick, and Fournier. There’s not much left in the way of leverage plays, so I’ll mention Nick Young, who has attempted at least 10 3-pointers in three of the past four games. He’s presently the highest-rated shooting guard on DraftKings in the Phan Model. None of the players available at that position are currently projected for more than 13-16 percent ownership, and Young costs $300 less than Redick but considerably more than Green and Marcus Smart.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard presently ranks third in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and DraftKings. His salary has dipped to $8,000 on FanDuel for the second time since the beginning of November and a season-low $7,800 on DraftKings. Although he’s been the model of consistency in December — save for one game in which he sat the final 16 minutes of a blowout win — he recorded his worst Plus/Minus game and made 3-of-13 shots against Luc Mbah a Moute and the Clippers earlier this season. In 13 regular season and playoff games against the Clippers since the 2014-15 season, Leonard has recorded a 38.5 percent Consistency. His Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.63 on DraftKings is yet another red flag that places him in GPP-only territory.
Values
If you haven’t done so already, consider Luol Deng at small forward. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games for an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +10.6, and over that span, he leads the Lakers with 32.4 minutes per game. The Lakers will be without Larry Nance, which should open up minutes at power forward, and Tarik Black is listed as questionable. Coach Luke Walton had this to say on Wednesday about Black:
“Unless we’re in foul trouble, if he’s healthy, we probably won’t play him. He hasn’t practiced or done anything the last couple of days. You have to work your way back into it.”
Deng will play against the team he played for the previous two seasons — a #RevengeGame of sorts — and he’s posted 100 percent Consistency on FanDuel over the past month, same as Jae Crowder. The salary discrepancy between Deng and Crowder tilts in Deng’s favor, and Crowder will have his hands full guarding Paul George.
Leverage Play
Coach Erik Spoelstra hasn’t been shy to play James Johnson at center this month. And, by center, I mean point-center. Johnson is second on the Heat with a 23.2 percent assist rate in 11 December games, and the Lakers may have the worst collection of centers in the league. Johnson won’t pop in the FanDuel models because he costs the same as teammate Justise Winslow and $100 more than Deng. However, his $4,200 salary on DraftKings provides sufficient salary cap savings in tournaments at power forward. Spoelstra has relied on a core eight-man rotation because of the rash of injuries lately, so I expect Johnson to play at least 24 minutes.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis headlines an inauspicious cast of characters at power forward. The offensive distribution on the Knicks tends to vacillate between Porzingis and Carmelo Anthony, and that creates uncertainty. Derrick Rose does well to get his stats within the offense, but Porzingis and Anthony could be a coin flip. On paper, Porzingis has the better matchup — he’s essentially unguardable at his size — and a better Opponent Plus/Minus. The Knicks are implied to score 109 points — the third-highest mark in the main slate — and the only other play in Kristaps’ price range is Draymond Green, who costs a few hundred more on both sites and may have his minutes dialed down in a probable blowout. Whereas Porzingis has the higher ceiling on the slate, Green offers the slightly safer floor since he’s able to affect the game and meet salary requirements without scoring more than 10 actual points.
Values
Julius Randle and Thomas Robinson benefit as much as Deng from the absence of Nance and Black. Walton had this to say about Robinson:
“T-Rob is going to have to be ready to play and make sure he knows a lot of the sets we like to run with the second unit.”
Given any sort of playing time for Robinson, he instantly becomes a punt option on both platforms. Randle is a tier below Green and Porzingis in salary and Consistency, but he’ll be forced to play significant minutes as one of the few healthy power forwards on the roster.
Leverage Play
One game’s past performance may not be a strong indicator of future success, but Amir Johnson played a season-high 31 minutes against the Pacers in November. Al Horford wasn’t available at the time due to a concussion, and Johnson supplied his second-highest scoring DFS game of the season. He’s since been priced down to minimum salary on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings, and his playing time has been suppressed with coach Brad Stevens intermittently starting Jonas Jerebko depending on the matchup. LaMarcus Aldridge may fit the construct of a ‘Leverage Play’ better if Paul Pierce is forced to guard him, but Johnson is the pivot off the slightly-cheaper Robinson.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside ranks second among starting players in Opponent Plus/Minus, and he may have the easiest matchup of the night. In four games against the Lakers over the previous two seasons, he’s averaged 45.05 FanDuel points. In 15 home games this season, he’s averaged a +9.8 FanDuel Plus/Minus, the second-highest mark among players available on today’s slate. The Lakers have the worst interior defense in the NBA, and they will be forced to play Robinson and maybe rookie Ivica Zubac to help contain Whiteside. The image below says it all.
Values
Myles Turner provides savings on FanDuel, and Al Horford counters with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. When these two teams met in November, Turner produced 38.1 FanDuel points with Horford unavailable due to a concussion. Neither offers Whiteside’s ceiling, and Turner has been the most productive of the two over the past two weeks, as the Pacers offense has revolved around George, Teague, and Turner. Horford offers a safer floor on DraftKings at a cost of $200 more than Turner, and he’s exceeded 40 DraftKings points in three straight games.
Leverage Play
Over the last three games, JaVale McGee, Kenneth Faried, and Al Jefferson have averaged a combined +12.52 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Knicks. Granted, McGee did start, but he was capped at 16 minutes. Nikola Vucevic will come off the bench for the Magic and look to annihilate the Knicks’ second unit, much in the way Faried and Jefferson recently did. In seven previous games against the Knicks, he’s averaged 43.89 DraftKings points. On the narrative side, Kyle O’Quinn was former teammates with Vucevic, and he’s now the Knicks’ on-again, off-again backup center. I think most people who fade Whiteside will flock to DeAndre Jordan or Horford over Vucevic for the additional $400, leaving Vucevic’s projected ownership in GPPs less than 10 percent on both sites.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
