There are two weeks left of the NFL season and I’m already feeling heartbroken. Let’s finish off the season strong by using the FantasyLabs Stacking tool to look at the top-rated stacks of the week. Note: The following stacks were generated using the Levitan Player Model.
QB-WR (DK): Matthew Stafford – Anquan Boldin
This stack is certainly more of a tournament play: The Lions have a low 18.5-point Vegas implied team total. That’s not ideal, but this stack will likely also be low-owned: Few will play Stafford against Dallas’ 22nd-ranked pass defense simply because the total is low. Although he’s on the road, Stafford still has a Plus/Minus of +0.48 historically in that situation:
Boldin will especially be low-owned: He has the toughest matchup among the Lions’ receivers against Orlando Scandrick, Pro Football Focus’ 23rd-ranked CB on the year. That said, he has a high projected ceiling of 21.8 points, which is actually higher than that of former “WR1” Marvin Jones.
QB-TE (FD): Sam Bradford – Kyle Rudolph
Bradford has been a mediocre quarterback at best this season. Per playerprofiler.com, he ranks below average in nearly every advanced QB metric:
However, the Packers are giving up a FD Plus/Minus of +2.7 to opposing QBs, and Bradford had one of his best games of the season against them in his first start, posting a 22-286-2 line. He’s projected for only one to zero percent ownership.
Rudolph will be chalky in Week 16 for a few reasons. First, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Rudolph has received 25.16 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games. Second, he leads all tight ends with 12 red-zone receptions and the Vikings should have to throw the ball often, as they’re currently seven-point road dogs. Rudolph is projected for 13-16 percent ownership on FD, where he owns a 92 percent Bargain Rating.
RB-D/ST (DK): Spencer Ware – Kansas City D/ST
Ware has struggled a bit lately: He’s scored only 11.0 and 6.8 FD points in his last two games and now has one rushing touchdown over his last eight starts. That said, he still owns this backfield: Per the Market Share Report, Ware leads the team with 66.99 percent of the carries over the last four games. He will face a Denver team that funnels production toward the running game in a big way: They’re only 22nd in rush Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but they’re first by a mile in pass DVOA.
Kansas City leads the NFL in takeaways (28) and in D/ST touchdowns (seven) on the year. At zero to one percent ownership for the D/ST and Ware, this combination is an elite stack for tournaments.
QB-RB-WR (FD): Andrew Luck – Frank Gore – T.Y. Hilton
Andrew Luck is tied with the highest projected floor of the slate among QBs at 12.3 points. He is facing an Oakland secondary that ranks 22nd in DVOA, and Luck just dominated a tougher Vikings secondary last week that ranks fifth against the pass. Luck is projected for five to eight and nine to 12 percent ownership on DK and FD, and he certainly has QB1 potential this week.
Gore is certainly not a sexy play despite the fact that he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaged an impressive +4.16 Plus/Minus over that time. Gore’s +5.73 Projected Plus/Minus mark on FD ranks second among RBs this week, and he’s projected for only zero to one percent ownership. He has a limited ceiling for tournaments, but this is an underrated spot.
Hilton flopped last week, scoring only 6.0 FD points on a 3-45-0 line. However, some context is needed: The game was basically over after the first quarter and the Colts ended up running the ball a whopping 40 times over the course of the game. Oakland has a slightly better offense than Minnesota, and this game has the highest Vegas total of the week at 53 points. Hilton has the fourth-highest projected FD ceiling among WRs at 24.1 points.
QB-RB-WR-WR (DK): Aaron Rodgers – Ty Montgomery – Jordy Nelson – Davante Adams
Rodgers and the Packers face the Vikings, who just got embarrassed by the Colts at home. The Packers are currently in a tight playoff race and this game is essentially a must-win for them. Rodgers has a poor DK Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.9, yet he’s still a top-five rated QB in the DK Levitan Model because of his high +3.22 Projected Plus/Minus and 92 percent Bargain Rating.
Montgomery exploded last week, scoring 33.3 DK points thanks to an impressive 16-162-2 line on the ground. He’s now listed as a running back on both sites, and he might actually be a good one: He averaged a whopping 10.1 yards per carry last week against the Bears. That said, this matchup is definitely a more difficult one, and he’s now $1,100 more expensive and is projected for high 17-20 percent ownership.
Both Adams and Nelson struggled with drops last week. Oh, the memories. Adams said after the game, “That’s what it was. It wasn’t me; it was the gloves.” He definitely struggled, catching only two of his six targets for 25 yards and no TDs. Things won’t get any easier this week against Terence Newman, Pro Football Focus’ ninth-ranked corner on the year with a stellar 86.6 coverage grade. That said, this is still an explosive offense, especially with Montgomery as the full-time back, and Adams is projected for only two to four percent ownership in GPPs.
The Rodgers-Nelson combo is rolling right along: Jordy has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging a +3.49 Plus/Minus during that time. He’s accumulated 22.25 fantasy points per game over his last four games. Nelson is first in the NFL in receiving TDs, although he’ll certainly have to earn them this week, as he’s currently projected to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes, PFF’s 40th-ranked CB on the year. Jordy has a fairly high ownership projection of 17-20 percent, but he’s hot right now and is always a threat to get into the end zone; he has seven touchdowns in his last eight games.
Good luck!
