The Week 16 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 16 Quarterbacks
“Samuel, you are such an idiot. You are the worst assistant ever, and you’re disgusting, Dwigt.”
— Agent Michael Scarn
Thanks to Ian Hartitz, Bryan Mears, and Kelly McCann for doing this week’s running back, wide receiver, and tight end breakdowns. Those guys are the best non-idiot non-disgusting non-assistants ever.
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s QB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 11:41.
Moving on . . .
QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown (and many pieces before that), QB salaries (in general) are inflated on FanDuel and deflated on DraftKings (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 75 percent. On DK, 11 QBs have higher Bargain Ratings. On FD, the most expensive QB has the slate’s third-highest salary; on DK, 10th. It’s easier to acquire QB Plus/Minus on DK than FD. Arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big One
For several weeks in the middle of the season, we had the same group of QBs forming a consensus tier atop the DK and FD salary scales. This group was sometimes the Big Five and occasionally the Big Seven.
Over the past several weeks, though, consensus has been limited. In Weeks 13-14, we had the Big One (Who Must Not Be Named). Last week we had the Big Two (neither one of whom finished as a top-five fantasy QB). And this week we have the (NEW) Big One.
It’s been four weeks since we had a larger consensus top tier because DK and FD each week have had notable pricing differences for a few top-eight QBs.
For instance, this week . . .
• The FD QB2 is the DK QB9.
• The DK QB3 is the FD QB7.
• The DK QB7 is the FD QB14
With DK and FD both pricing down top-three QBs on the other platform, we’re left with a Week 16 top tier of one.
You know who he is.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
Tom Brady ($7,700 DK, $9,000 FD) is having a great season . . .
. . . but (per our Trends tool) he’s ‘only’ the QB4 in points per game (PPG), and he leads the position in guaranteed prize pool ownership (which isn’t ideal). We’ve projected Tomth Brader once again to have significant ownership at nine to 12 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
Brady probably deserves his projected ownership. The Patriots are 16.5-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 30 points . . . and they’re hosting the Jets, who are dead last against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and have an extreme funnel defense that is third in rush DVOA and flows toward the passing game like . . .
In this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Brady was the chalky QB whom guest Jake Ciely said he was comfortable using in cash games. Adam Levitan and Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) both talked about Brady as someone to play. People who are smart are on Brady this week.
That said, Brady should be approached with (extreme?) caution.
Everyone know that the Jets are horrible. Last week they allowed Dolphins backup QB Matt Moore — in his first start in almost five years — to submit a QB2 performance on the road with 24.4 fantasy points on only 18 pass attempts. I’m not saying that Brady’s ownership will exceed our projections, but it definitely won’t fall short of them. He’ll be popular, just as he’s been all season.
On top of that, Brady throughout his entire career hasn’t been his best in division games (per RotoViz) . . .
. . . and he’s consistently been #notgood against divisional opponents in the last month of the season:
Over the last three years, the extent to which Brady struggles in the division as the season progresses has been apparent on DK and FD:
Once November rolls around — once he’s in the second half of the season — the elder Brady has been an enormous liability against the AFC East:
Why is that the case?
Maybe it’s because Brady is older and his body breaks down more than it did when he was younger. Over the last five years he’s experienced a marked second-half decline:
Before that, though, Brady’s second-half decline (though existent) wasn’t drastic. It was just the late-season downturn that lots of QBs experience:
The attrition of the season has impacted Brady more as he’s aged.
But here’s a wrinkle: Over the last three years Brady hasn’t sucked against the non-division teams he’s played in the second half:
In all fairness, Brady’s not alone in his second-half divisional suckage. The rest of the league is right there with him:
But note that Brady is far below average in both raw production and Plus/Minus in this situation. In the second half of the season, Brady isn’t subpar against his division by just his standards. He’s subpar by any standards.
Brady’s enhanced tendency to wear down later in the season might contribute to his divisional underperformance, but it’s not the cause of his struggles. Familiarity is the likely cause. Brady simply isn’t that good against teams who play him regularly, especially when they’ve played him recently (within the past few months).
Finally, it’s possible that Brady struggles in divisional games late in the season because of the colder weather. Brady isn’t one of the (mythical) NFL QBs who crush in cold weather. (He’s been horrible in freezing weather since at least 2014.) Right now, the forecast calls for a temperature of 40 degrees Fahrenheit for the Jets-Pats game. If the weather gets any colder, Brady could be in trouble. He’s struggled over the last three years with a maximum temperature of 40 degrees:
And let’s not even explore the fact that the game currently has a slate-high 71 percent chance of precipitation.
All of these factors suggest that Brady is a very suboptimal option in Week 16 — but almost no one is talking about any of this data as a cause for concern. Instead, if people talk negatively about Brady, they mention the large spread: If the Patriots jump out to a big lead, then Brady might throw the ball less as the team runs the ball more. In other words, some people are concerned about Brady because the Pats are too good in comparison to the Jets.
This concern is valid in a macro sense, as QBs favored by double digits tend to underperform:
For more on this topic, see Kelly McCann’s study of QBs, Vegas data, and GPP ownership.
For Brady, however, winning within a 15-point window of the team’s 16.5-point spread has never precluded personal production. In his 75 career games in which the Pats have won by nine to 24 points, Brady has done better than he has in other situations:
And what about the last half decade?
He’s done better. Brady probably won’t throw the ball as much as he usually would, but nothing in his production history suggests that Brady will suffer just because the Pats are massive favorites, so that’s great if you want to start Brady . . .
. . . but all of that other data should scare the sh*t out of you.
Brady’s the QB1 by salary — and he doesn’t even have a top-12 rating in any of our Pro Models.
By the way, why am I spending so much time writing about a guy I’m suggesting you fade? Strong inference.
In the words of George Banks, “Drive carefully, and don’t forget to fasten your condom.”
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
By the way, it’s Christmas. No one has time to read 5,000 words on QBs (even though more than 5,000 words’ worth of research went into this). So instead of throwing the pigskin deep . . .
. . . I’ll be chucking like so:
I hope you have the Stickum handy.
Carson Wentz ($5,000 DK, $6,700 FD): Am I the only one disappointed that we haven’t seen any “Wince” puns yet? Anyone?
Can you hear me?
Aaron Rodgers ($6,700 DK, $8,600 FD): A-Rod is the 2016 QB2/1 with 23.68 DK and 22.54 FD PPG. Despite being tied for ‘only’ the seventh-most pass attempts at 533, he’s tied for the league lead with 95 red-zone attempts and 25 red-zone touchdowns passing. The 8-6 Packers have won four straight games, are competing for a playoff spot, and have a 25-point implied total as seven-point home favorites. Unsurprisingly, Rodgers has always been on top of his game as a home favorite:
At the same time, Rodgers is playing against the Vikings, who are fifth in pass DVOA and holding QBs to 15.0 DK and 14.7 FD PPG — the third-lowest totals in the league. In Week 2, they held Rodgers to 19.4 DK and 18.4 FD points. And — quelle surprise! — Rodgers tends to be less effective against divisional opponents in the second half of the season:
Rodgers is priced as the QB2 on FD but the QB9 on DK, where he has a slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projection of 13-16 percent.
Kirk Cousins ($6,800 DK, $7,800 FD): Cousins is one of the week’s few non-divisional QBs, and he has the slate’s second-highest FD Bargain Rating at 69 percent. He’s been almost as good as Rodgers on the road over the last three years . . .
. . . and the Redskins are 3.5-point road favorites implied to score 25.25 points — and both of those numbers have increased since the Vegas lines opened.
Still, the Bears are 14th in pass DVOA and allowing only 17.4 DK and 16.6 FD PPG to QBs. If Cousins goes off it will have more to do with him and the play-calling than the matchup.
He’s priced as the DK QB7 but the FD QB14.
Cam Newton ($6,600 DK, $7,900 FD): Get ready for the most Cam stats ever: He’s one of the rare QBs with positive division/non-division splits . . .
. . . and he’s just as good against the NFC South in the second half of the season as he is all year long:
The 6-8 Panthers are 2.5-point home underdogs implied to score 24.5 points. Being a home dog has had virtually no effect on Newton’s production throughout his career . . .
. . . and he’s facing the Falcons, who are allowing the most fantasy points in the league to QBs at 21.1 DK and 20.2 FD PPG.
That blinking pink light GIFs me every time.
Trevor Siemian ($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD): There’s contrarianism, and then there’s something else. The Broncos are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 17 points. Road dog QBs have struggled against the Chiefs this year:
And yet . . . Siemian has bizarrely been at his best this season as a road dog:
And Siemian has already torched the Chiefs this season with a 368-yard, three-touchdown performance for 32.0 DK and 29.0 FD points — and that game was with Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (knee) on the field: He had three sacks and 10 tackles in that game.
At zero to one percent projected ownership, Siemian might be a non-catastrophic contrarian play, especially given that the temperature in Kansas City this weekend is forecast for a tropical-ish 51 degrees.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,700 DK, $7,600 FD): Kaep sucks as passer — he has a completion rate of only 55.5 percent this year — but he’s managed to have only one awful fantasy performance this year, and that was an excusable performance in the snow. On the whole, Konami Code Colin has been a reliable DFS starter this year, especially in cash games:
It’s hard to ignore a starting QB averaging 48.46 rushing yards per game. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kaep leads all QBs with 20.75 percent of his team’s rushes through the last four weeks:
The 49ers are four-point road underdogs implied to score 18 points. All of that seems awful, but running QBs minimize the effects of negative home/road dynamics and Vegas lines, and Kaep has still produced even though the 49ers have scored only 17 PPG in his eight starts.
Kaepernick has a top-five ceiling projection on FD, where he has zero to one percent projected ownership.
Eli Manning ($5,800 DK, $7,700 FD): When Vegas released the lines for this game, the Giants were three-point road favorites implied to score 22.5 points. Now they’re 1.5-point favorites implied for 21.75 points — even though 81 percent of the betting public is on them. This reverse line movement suggests that the big (smart) money is going against the Giants.
Eli is facing an Eagles defense whose secondary sucks (according to Pro Football Focus coverage grades) — but the defense is still second in pass DVOA and allowing only 17.7 DK and 16.8 FD PPG to QBs.
Over the last 10 weeks, Odell Beckham Jr. has been the league’s most productive fantasy WR. Over that exact same time frame, Eli has literally scored fewer fantasy points than a QB whose surname rhymes with “Chortles”:
Thank the fantasy gawds that Eli plays on Thursday night. Otherwise, you might be tempted to start him.
Bryce Petty ($5,000 DK, $6,000 FD): The Jets are on the receiving end of a crushing 16.5-point spread, and they’re implied to score a slate-low 13.5 points against the Patriots, who are 25th in pass DVOA but still know how to destroy pretend QBs.
In his three starts . . .
. . . Petty has made Jets fans yearn for Chad Pennington. If we could project him for less than zero percent ownership, we would.
Jared Goff ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD): The Rams are four-point home favorites implied to score 22 points against the 49ers, who are 29th in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 19.8 DK and 19.0 FD PPG — the fifth- and third-highest marks in the league.
If not now, when?
Matt Barkley ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): The Bears are 3.5-point home underdogs implied to score 21.75 points against the Redskins, who are 24th in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 19.9 DK and 18.3 FD PPG — the fourth- and sixth-highest totals in the league.
With Barkley as the starting QB, the Bears offense is much improved . . .
. . . and the wannabe eyewear model hasn’t been the worst QB ever:
The over/under has moved up two points since the line opened, with both teams experiencing an increase in their implied totals. This game could be a shootout.
Barkley throws interceptions like hot moms hand out Halloween candy Jay Cutler — but he’s still a viable option.
Philip Rivers ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD): The Chargers are 5.5-point road favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the 0-14 Browns, who are 31st in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 20.8 DK and 19.9 FD PPG — the second-highest totals in the league.
Over the last four years with Mike McCoy as his head coach, Rivers has done well outside of divisional play . . .
. . . and he’s one of the few non-horrid QBs this week playing in a non-divisional matchup.
Man, that was such a great sh*tty movie.
Andrew Luck ($7,000 DK, $8,300 FD): The Colts are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 24.75 points against the Raiders, who are 21st in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 19.4 DK and 18.1 FD PPG. This game is expected to be a shootout with a 53-point over/under.
In Luck’s 13 career games as a road underdog against non-division opponents, he’s been far from his best:
Of course, I wrote basically the same blurb last week — and Luck finished with a 250-2 effort that easily could’ve been 300-3 if not for the Colts winning 34-6.
Derek Carr ($6,800 DK, $8,100 FD): The Raiders are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Colts, who are 27th in pass DVOA. Ever since breaking out last year, as a home favorite Carr has been . . . ‘automatic’ . . . get it? CARR???
Mic check? Hello???
Oh, sure, when I start talking about football, then you can hear me. Real cool, guys.
Dak Prescott ($5,900 DK, $7,800 FD): The Cowboys are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Lions, whose QB-friendly funnel defense is 30th in pass DVOA. Dak has been great as a home favorite:
In a week offering almost no slates with the Monday game, Dak is a theoretical candidate to the proverbial velvet hammer.
Russell Wilson ($6,300 DK, $7,700 FD): The Seahawks are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the division rival Cardinals. Throughout his career, Wilson has had negative division/non-division splits . . .
. . . and the Cardinals — despite a horrible performance last week — are still fourth in pass DVOA. Wilson’s probably worth his two to four percent projected ownership — but Wilson has thrown multiple TDs only four times this year. He’s exceeded 300 yards passing only twice. And he’s a running QB with only one TD on the ground.
Would you believe me if I told you that Wilson’s ceiling projection is jealous of Kaepernick’s?
Jameis Winston ($6,500 DK, $8,000 FD): The Buccaneers are three-point road underdogs implied to score 24.5 points against the Saints, who are 28th in pass DVOA and allowing 19.8 DK and 18.1 FD PPG to opposing QBs. For all 15 road games of his career, Winston’s been a dog. If I were a poet, that would be a metaphor.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700 DK, $7,900 FD): Since WR Antonio Brown became a 150-target beast in 2013, Ben has had extreme home/road splits:
Against division opponents, however, he’s been just average even at home:
The Steelers are five-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the division rival Ravens, who are sixth in pass DVOA and allowing opponent teams to score only 18.8 PPG.
Ben has done adequately at home against the Ravens ever since John Harbaugh became their head coach in 2008 . . .
. . . and he’ll likely get a slight bump in production if No. 1 cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle) is unable to play.
Ben always has the potential to go off at home. In fact, he’s destroyed the Ravens in Pittsburgh ever since LB Ray Lewis retired after the 2012 season . . .
. . . but we shouldn’t get excited about a two-game sample or expect the typical Roethlisberger-at-home production because of the matchup.
That said, Ben’s DK and FD ownership projections of just zero to one percent are exploitable.
The Super Models
As I write this, three QBs are atop our Pro Models:
• Matt Ryan: $7,200 DK, $8,100 FD
• Tyrod Taylor: $5,400 DK, $7,500 FD
• Blake Bortles: $5,000 DK, $6,200 FD
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
Even though Ryan entered the season with limited expectations (which he’s crushed as the QB3 with 23.01 DK and 21.79 FD PPG), his price hasn’t increased all that much since Week 1 (+$100 DK, +$500 FD). Ryan’s been rosterable for much of the season at a substantial discount, as he has the league’s highest FD Plus/Minus of any regular starting QB at +3.53. (His +4.40 DK Plus/Minus is the second-highest mark.) Ryan is once again available at a discount this week, as he’s priced as QB3 on DK but the QB7 on FD, where he has a slate-high 75 percent Bargain Rating and is the highest-rated QB in the Sports Geek Model.
The Falcons are 2.5-point road favorites implied to score 27 points against the Panthers, who are allowing opponent teams to score the eighth-most points in the league at 25.1 PPG. The Falcons lead the NFL with 33.5 PPG scored. The matchup isn’t especially great for Ryan, but it’s good enough: QBs are scoring 19.5 DK and 18.0 FD PPG against the Panthers, who have something of a funnel defense that ranks eighth against the rush and 15th against the pass.
In terms of overall production and advanced efficiency, Ryan is undoubtedly a top QB. Per Player Profiler:
Throughout his career Ryan hasn’t had division/non-division splits . . .
. . . but his production has always dipped in the second half against divisional opponents:
Nevertheless, with Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator Ryan has had positive division/non-division splits over the last two years . . .
. . . and he’s been adequate in divisional play in the second half of the season:
Ryan has the position’s second-highest ceiling projections.
All of that said, Ryan might be without stud wide receiver Julio Jones (toe) for a third straight game. (Monitor Julio’s status with the FantasyLabs News feed.) Even if Julio plays this week, he might not be a featured part of the passing game.
Since Julio entered the league, Ryan has been better when he’s given his No. 1 WR at least eight targets in a game than when he hasn’t. Per RotoViz:
Ryan throws more touchdowns and fewer interceptions with eight-target Julio — but the big difference is in his yardage: Without a target-heavy Julio, Ryan tends not to accumulate the yardage he needs to be a top performer. Even with relatively big games over the last two weeks, Ryan has still averaged only 261.5 yards per game, which highlights a disturbing recent trend: Ryan has 300-plus passing yards in a game only once in his past eight games.
He’s still been good in that time, but the drop-off in his performance is apparent:
Fewer TDs, more INTs, fewer yards, fewer fantasy points: That’s not the recent performance you want to see.
Ryan probably won’t have a lineup-destroying performance, and he’s projected for only five to eight and nine to 12 percent DK and FD ownership — but, in general, if you start a road QB in a divisional matchup in the second half of the season, you earn what’s coming to you.
In TyGod We Trust
This week, Taylor ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated DK QB in all of our Pro Models: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek. On FD, Tyrod has been adequate since Week 3, when the Bills parted ways with former offensive coordinator Greg Roman:
But on DK, where Tyrod has a slate-high 96 percent Bargain Rating, he’s been consistently productive without Roman:
The Bills are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 22.5 points against the Dolphins, who are allowing 19.3 DK and 18.4 FD PPG to QBs. In his 13 starts at home over the last two years, Taylor has a +4.13 DK Plus/Minus with 85.7 percent Consistency.
Tyrod has been supported all year by his strong rushing production, as he’s averaged 44.58 yards and 0.5 TDs on the ground per game since Week 3.
He has the third-highest floor projection on DK as well as a two to four percent ownership projection.
Blaine Gabbert, Part II — But Not Quite as Awful?
For some reason, it actually matters where Bortles plays when he’s an underdog. Since breaking out last year, he’s a GOAT as a road underdog . . .
. . . but he’s the WOAT when he’s a home dog:
Needless to say, a Consistency Rating of 33.3 percent isn’t good.
The Jaguars are 4.5-point home underdogs implied to score only 19.5 points against the Titans.
What Bortles really has going for him (besides his price) is the matchup: The Titans are allowing QBs to score 20.1 DK and 18.8 FD PPG — the third- and fourth-highest totals in the league. That combination of price and matchup has gifted Bortles a slate-high +3.51 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where he’s the highest-rated QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models.
At two to four percent projected ownership, Bortles isn’t the worstles — although that pun definitely wastles.
The Coda
Week 16 marks the last week of the season in which Drew Brees ($7,400 DK, $8,500 FD) will play at home. R.I.P.
He’s the QB1/2 with 24.37 DK and 22.16 FD PPG on the season, and the Saints are three-point home favorites implied to score 27.5 points against the Buccaneers. Even though the Bucs are seventh in pass DVOA and just two weeks removed from holding Brees to a year-low 7.50 fantasy points, Brees is in play: He’s at home.
The Mercedes Superdome is to Brees what the local pool is to Wendy Peffercorn. When he’s at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football . . .
. . . Brees is rubbing on that oil. This year Brees has the following finishes at home:
• Week 1 (OAK): QB2
• Week 3 (ATL): QB4 DK, QB3 FD
• Week 6 (CAR): QB1
• Week 8 (SEA): QB11 DK, QB10 FD
• Week 10 (DEN): QB5 DK, QB8 FD
• Week 12 (LA): QB2
• Week 13 (DET): QB22 DK, QB24 FD
Just ignore what Brees did in Week 13. Occasionally . . .
. . . people blow it when they shouldn’t.
Ever since arriving in New Orleans more than a decade ago, Brees has beasted Breested as a home favorite:
Head Coach and offensive mastermind Sean Payton has fielded a sub-.500 and near-defenseless team for three straight seasons. There’s an underappreciated chance that Payton’s not with New Orleans in 2017.
In other words, this game against the Bucs might be Brees’ last ‘true’ Coors contest ever.
He leads the slate in DK and FD Pro Trends and is projected for 13-16 percent ownership. He has the slate’s highest median and ceiling projections.
He leads the NFL with 589 pass attempts, 419 completions, 4,559 yards, 34 TDs, 45 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line, and 21 TDs from inside the 10.
If you’re using multiple GPP lineups and not stacking Brees and a receiver in at least one of them, you have a heart of stone.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 16 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs: By Ian Hartitz
• Wide Receivers: By Bryan Mears
• Tight Ends: By Kelly McCann
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
