Wednesday brings an eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has scored 67.7 and 73.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He has a projected floor of 39.3 points, which is higher than the median projection of all but two PGs in this slate. Westbrook is the ‘Stud’ to own tonight, and he has a nice matchup against a Pelicans team that has allowed a mediocre 104.2 points per 100 possessions on the season. He has a +2.96 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where his slate-high $12,500 salary comes with a +4.96 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently the No. 1 PG in the FD Phan Model and is projected for 17-20 percent ownership.
Value
Patrick Beverley has been excellent this year for the Rockets, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +6.95 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s currently the No. 4 PG in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $5,600 salary comes with a position-high +5.15 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating. The Rockets have an elite matchup against the Suns, who play at the league’s second-fastest pace and have the 23rd-ranked defense, allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions. This game has easily the highest Vegas total of the slate at 226.5 points (the second-highest total belongs to Wolves-Hawks at 213.0), and the Rockets are implied for a slate-high 116.5 points. Bev profiles more as a cash-game option because of his high floor and low ceiling, but he’s an excellent one in this slate.
Leverage Play
Ricky Rubio has the slate’s best matchup in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus (+5.08 on FD), and he’s the same price as Beverley, who could be highly owned because of the Rockets’ high team total. Rubio is an exceptional tournament play for that reason, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s crushed value lately and has played between 34 and 40 minutes in each of his last three games. The Hawks have been the most generous non-Nuggets team versus PGs this year, and Rubio is too cheap on FD, where his $5,600 salary comes with a +3.75 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for only nine to 12 percent FD ownership — he’s at five to eight percent on DraftKings because of his price point — and he has a projected ceiling of 39.2 points.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is in an elite spot: He’s facing the Suns, who average a whopping 103.5 possessions per game and have defended at a bottom-10 rate this year. He’s been very consistent lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games, scoring fewer than 50 FD points just once during that time frame. The issue for Harden is his price: He’s $12,000 on both sites, which gives him salaried-based expectations of 57.65 DK and 50.54 FD points. That’s not inconceivable for Harden in this matchup, but he’s only $600 and $500 less than Westbrook. He’s more of a tournament play as a result, but he’s an elite one: He owns a massive 69.5-point projected DK ceiling and has triple-double upside.
Value
It seems silly to recommend two players from the same position and team, but the Rockets are currently projected to score 6.5 more points than any other team, and this slate isn’t loaded with SG value. As a result, Eric Gordon is the No. 2 SG in the DK Phan Model and No. 3 on FD. He’s playable in all contest formats given the team total and his recent play: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a high +4.99 DK Plus/Minus during that time. He has a +1.15 Opponent Plus/Minus and the position’s second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at +3.85. He’s projected for 32 minutes and a 24.43 usage rate, and he offers relative safety at a position lacking it tonight.
Leverage Play
If LeBron James is ruled out for the Cavs, Giannis Antetokounmpo might be a better play overall than Harden. The Cavs would likely put either Iman Shumpert or Richard Jefferson on him without LeBron. One of those guys is six inches shorter than Giannis, and the other is 14 years older. Giannis is a fine play even with LeBron in the lineup: They played against each other just last game, and Giannis scored 51.6 FD points in 43.8 minutes of action. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games and averaged a +4.71 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s currently the No. 2 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his $10,200 salary comes with a +4.56 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a +1.62 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is questionable to play but a solid option if he suits up: He ended up with 60.9 FD points in a whopping 47.5 minutes just last game against the Bucks. As mentioned above, he’s literally the only player on the Cavaliers who can defend Giannis. If LeBron doesn’t play, consider Jimmy Butler. He’s been a bit up and down lately . . .
Those recent games are a bit misleading, however: They mostly came in blowouts, and the Bulls are only four-point favorites over the Wizards tonight. He’s projected for 36.7 minutes and a 27.04 usage rate, and he currently leads the position with a chalky 21-25 percent ownership projection. He’s the No. 3 option on FD currently, and his $8,400 salary comes with a +5.66 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Kent Bazemore is the best value in the whole slate: He’s the No. 1 overall player among all positions on FD, where his low $4,400 salary comes with a massive +7.02 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s crushed value in each of his last two games, scoring 31.0 and 29.3 FD points at around this same $4,000 salary. He got 40.2 minutes last outing versus the Thunder, and he’s projected to play 32.2 minutes and use 21.34 percent of the team’s possessions while on the floor versus the Wolves. He has a poor -1.89 Opponent Plus/Minus, but that’s mitigated by his low price. He’s likely to be be chalky tonight, especially in cash games.
Leverage Play
Andrew Wiggins has been playing huge minutes with head coach Tom Thibodeau — he’s been above 38 in each of his last four games — and he’s projected for 38.7 minutes and a 25.49 usage rate tonight against the Hawks. He’s historically not a consistent DFS asset, but he has been recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaging a +5.58 FD Plus/Minus during that time. The Hawks have the 10th-ranked defense, allowing 103.0 points per 100 possessions on the year, but they’ve had a bottom-five unit during the last couple of weeks. Wiggins has a lot of upside, as shown by his 49.1-point projected DK ceiling. He’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership in tournaments.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is coming off of a 59.0-point DK outing against the scrappy 76ers and faces the 11th-ranked Oklahoma City defense tonight. That said, Brow put up 70.75 DK points against the Thunder just two weeks ago, thanks to 37 real points and 15 rebounds. He’s currently the No. 2 PF in the Phan Model for DK, where his $10,900 salary comes with a +3.95 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 55 percent Bargain Rating. Because of the matchup, he’s not as strong of a cash-game play as Westbrook and Harden, but he’s an elite pivot down from those guys in tournaments. He owns a massive 75.8-point projected DK ceiling and is set for 36.2 minutes and a huge 32.16 usage rate tonight. He’s projected for 21-25 percent ownership.
Value
Montrezl Harrell is projected for only 23.1 minutes and a 15.07 usage rate versus the Suns, but he’s still the No. 3 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his minimum $3,500 salary comes with a +4.27 Projected Plus/Minus, 95 percent Bargain Rating, and a +1.77 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s averaged an impressive 0.90 fantasy points per minute over the past year, and his recent per-36 minute numbers are stout. He carries risk with his low minute projection, but he has an elite matchup against a fast-paced Suns team that allows 106.7 points per 100 possessions. You have to find value somewhere if you want to pay for Westbrook or Harden.
Leverage Play
Jabari Parker has quietly been consistent for the Bucks lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging an impressive +6.58 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s currently the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $6,400 salary comes with a +5.64 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He had 45.75 DK points last game against the Cavs, and he could get a bump in value if LeBron and Kevin Love are ruled out, as someone like Jefferson would likely be on him for most of the game. He’s currently projected for a chalky 26-30 percent ownership and is playable in all contest formats.
Center
Stud
Center is the toughest position of the day. If you’re paying up for one, Karl-Anthony Towns could be the best option: He’s excelled in tough matchups (he’s against Dwight Howard and the Hawks tonight), and he’s scored 55.25 and 68.25 DK points in his last two games. Like the other Wolves’ starters, he’s playing massive minutes lately and is projected for 36.1 and a 27.36 usage rate tonight. He’s a fine play on both sites and leads the position on DK with a +4.85 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership, but that could dip if people go heavy on the elite guys like Westbrook and Harden in great matchups. Towns has the position’s second-highest projected ceiling on FD, just behind DeMarcus Cousins, who had 75.1 FD points and 55 real points last night but is playing on a brutal back-to-back in Utah.
Value
If Love or LeBron is ruled out tonight, Tristan Thompson will get a boost in value. There aren’t many options today at center, but Tristan will likely be chalky if either of the Cavs big men rests. He’s $4,800 on FD, where he has an 81 percent Bargain Rating and a +2.76 Opponent Plus/Minus, one of the few positive Opponent Plus/Minus values among centers. Both Steven Adams and Nene are solid ‘Value’ plays — the latter could especially be popular at the minimum price on both sites — but Tristan is the superior play without Love or LeBron. Monitor the NBA News feed prior to lock for more information.
Leverage Play
Rudy Gobert has been crushing lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a massive +8.36 DK Plus/Minus during that time. He’s a value on DK, where his $7,000 salary comes with a +3.05 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Of the top-six most expensive center-only players — including Cousins, KAT, Marc Gasol, Andre Drummond, and Dwight Howard — only Dwight and he have positive Opponent Plus/Minus values, and Dwight is questionable to play. Gobert has grabbed double-digit rebounds in each of his last 14 games, and he’s going against a Kings team on the second leg of a back-to-back that just allowed 27 points and 13 rebounds to Mason (Freaking) Plumlee just last night.
Good luck!
News Updates
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