The Week 16 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 16 Wide Receivers
As you may have noticed, I am not Matthew Freedman. I am also not Santa. But even though I don’t have anything near the majestic beards those two gents possess, I will still do my best to shower you with joyful GIFs during this wonderful season.
I like the structure Matt uses in his pieces, so we’re going to stick with the general guideline: Player Model favorites and then quick hits about the rest of the pool.
The Super Models
We have four Pro Models — the Bales, Levitan, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek models — and they’re mostly in consensus about the top players for this week. I took a look at the 10 highest-rated WRs in all four models for both sites and compiled the players who popped up multiple times. Here they are, in descending order of DK salary:
• Antonio Brown: $8,200 DK, $8,300 FD
• Brandin Cooks: $6,800 DK, $7,100 FD
• Golden Tate: $6,600 DK, $6,000 FD
• Michael Crabtree: $6,100 DK, $6,200 FD
• Michael Thomas: $6,000 DK, $6,900 FD
• Willie Snead: $5,500 DK, $6,000 FD
• Anquan Boldin: $4,100 DK, $5,300 FD
The Prodigal Son
The Steelers have been on the road four of their last five games and six of their last nine. If you’ve read literally anything on fantasylabs dot com, you probably know that the Steelers, particularly QB Ben Roethlisberger, suck on the road. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App:
Unfortunately, Brown, despite being probably the best WR in the entire world, is not immune to Big Ben’s road suckiness:
Those touchdown numbers are especially concerning: Brown has averaged over a half TD per game less on the road than he does at home. Thankfully, the prodigal sons return to Pittsburgh this week to take on the divisional rival Baltimore Ravens, who boast an elite defense: They rank third overall, sixth versus the pass, and first against the rush. That said, they have something of a funnel defense, because the are so superior against the run.
Looking at Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), I took each team’s overall, pass, and rush DVOA and set each on a 1-100 scale. And then for the purpose of our Baltimore discussion, I created a “RunFunnel” rating system, which indicates how much better a team’s run defense is than their pass defense and how much they might potentially funnel production toward that part of the offense.
Even though the Ravens have the sixth-best pass defense in the NFL, their run defense is so good that they should conceivably still funnel production toward the pass at the fourth-highest rate.
Per our Matchups tool, Brown has a positive matchup against CB Shareece Wright, who is Pro Football Focus’ 57th-ranked CB on the year with an average coverage grade of 74.7. We’re expecting Antonio to bounce back in a big way this week: He’s currently the No. 1 DK WR in the Bales, Levitan, and Sports Geek models, and he leads all WRs with a median projection of 22.0 points. He’s projected for only zero to one percent ownership because of his recent play and the matchup against the Ravens.
The Coors Field of Daily Fantasy Football
Such is the problem with rostering Drew Brees and one of his pass-catchers in a guaranteed prize pool stack. Which one of the talented trio is going to go off? Per the Market Share Report:
Over the Saints’ last four games, Snead, Cooks, and Thomas have all held similar target shares, and they’ve essentially rotated as the WR1 each week. In Week 15, it was Cooks with 34.1 FD points on a 7-186-2 line against the Cardinals. The week before, Snead had a nice game, and three weeks ago Thomas exploded for 27.3 FD points on a 9-108-2 line. They’re all viable, but they’re probably not all cumulatively viable. That makes this DFS situation both exciting and tough for contests this week.
If we’re comparing and contrasting the three, Snead has the highest target share over the past month, but Thomas has owned 15.06 percent during that time despite missing the first Bucs game two weeks ago. Thomas in particular has an elite matchup: Per PFF, he has the 12th-most advantageous WR/CB matchup of Week 16. He’ll run routes primarily against Vernon Hargreaves, who is PFF’s 80th-ranked corner on the year with a below-average 68.2 coverage grade. And that perhaps undersells the matchup: Via Adam Levitan via Mike Clay of ESPN, Hargreaves has allowed the most catches, receiving yards, and fantasy points this season.
Via @MikeClayNFL, Hargreaves has allowed the most catches, receiving yards and fantasy points this season. https://t.co/bFItNYmjAl
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 22, 2016
A succinct interpretation:
Freedman loves that GIF.
Cooks should be very popular this week too, partly because of the great matchup at home but also because of massive performance at low ownership last week. Recency bias and missing out on that huge performance will likely make him uber chalky. Here’s the projected ownership distribution of this trio:
Hello, Snead. He makes for an elite GPP option this week at the Superdome, as he’s currently projected for minuscule ownership on DK — and he leads the Saints in targets over the last month! He’s received 19 targets over the past two weeks and leads the trio with a 50 percent TD rate in the red zone. Considering that the Saints are currently implied for 27.5 points — the third-highest mark in the slate — there’s a decent chance that they could get in the red zone in Week 16. All three of these guys have two targets inside the 10-yard line over the last month, and Snead also has a beatable matchup against CB Javien Elliott.
Brees really struggled against the Bucs two weeks ago on the road, completing only 25 of his 41 passes for 257 yards and three interceptions. The Bucs have certainly played better against the pass recently — they rank seventh versus the pass on the year and a poor 23rd against the run — but there’s a solid chance that the Saints won’t be funneled: They rank fourth in the league with a 63.7 pass play percentage, and that number jumps up slightly to 64.38 at home. Brees has thrown at least 40 passes in four of his last five games, and (per the funnel graphic above) the Bucs’ No. 7 ranking against the pass oversells their dominance. Brees’ three three stud WRs have massive upside.
The New Bash Bro(s)
The first time I wrote this piece, during Week 12 of the season, Crabtree and Amari Cooper stood out in most of our Pro Models. I called them the “New Bash Bros” and even bestowed upon them the honor of this GIF:
This week, he’s rated highly in several of our Pro Models — he’s the No. 3 WR in the DraftKings Levitanimal Model and No. 1 on FD. It’s not just the soft pricing on FanDuel: He’s likely underpriced on both sites relative to his situation and recent offensive workload. He’s a full $1,000 cheaper than Cooper on FD despite dominating his team’s target share over the last month.
He’s in an elite spot as well: The Raiders are at home and implied to score 28.25 points against a Colts defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. Crabtree certainly has a beatable matchup, as we’re expecting him to face CB Rashaan Melvin, PFF’s 65th-ranked corner on the year with a mediocre 73.4 coverage grade.
Crabtree has historically been better on the road versus at home:
However, that might be unrepresentative of his situation: The Raiders haven’t been implied to score that many points at home in any of Crabtree’s games. He balls out on the road and oftentimes as a dog, but being a home favorite isn’t so bad against the Colts in a possible shootout.
That said, let’s not overlook Cooper in GPPs. Per PFF, he has the week’s fourth-most advantageous WR/CB matchup going against Vontae Davis, who has been awful this season, ranking 109th out of 120 eligible CBs with a 44.8 coverage grade. Cooper has been disappointing lately, but he still leads the Raiders on the season with 1,038 receiving yards on 117 targets — Crabtree has 866 yards on 127 targets — and Cooper has caught 62.3 percent of the balls thrown his way. He’s probably overpriced relative to his recent production, but the matchup is nice and he’s projected for less ownership than Crabtree on both DK and FD. Just as Dean Portman returned in the last game of D3, Cooper could absolutely retake his WR1 throne in Oakland.
The Monday Night Hammers
On the one hand, the Detroit Lions are coming off of a disappointing 17-6 loss versus the Giants and are 7.5-point Vegas dogs implied for only 18.5 points against the 12-2 Dallas Cowboys. On the other hand, the Cowboys rank 20th and 22nd in overall and pass DVOA. They’ve been somewhat stingy versus fantasy WRS — Boldin and Tate own a +0.3 DK Opponent Plus/Minus — but that has mostly been because of their slow pace: Per Football Outsiders, they rank 31st in average seconds per play.
Of the two, Tate has a better matchup against outside CB Anthony Brown, who is PFF’s 51st-ranked corner on the year with a 76.0 coverage grade. That’s not a bad mark by any means, but it’s not quite as good as Orlando Scandrick‘s. He’s currently PFF’s 27th-ranked CB with a good 80.1 grade this season. Boldin will match up primarily against Scandrick in the slot and will likely have to get into the end zone to hit value. He’s had only 10 targets over the past two games, turning those into six receptions and 62 yards. He has five TDs over his last nine games and owns an impressive 32.0 percent of the Lions’ TDs over the past year, but his value is almost completely tied to his ability to score.
Tate provides more safety because of his volume: He’s owned a team-high 27.33 percent of the Lions’ targets over the past month and has gotten double-digit opportunities in three straight weeks. He’s gone over 100 yards in two of his last three games and is still only $6,000 on FD. He’s currently the No. 3 FD WR in the Levitan Player Model, and he comes with a high +4.20 Projected Plus/Minus, five Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. If you’re looking for that Monday Night Hammer, Tate will likely come with low ownership.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go . . .
Last time I wrote this article, I made a ‘Target Bargain Rating’ metric that (I hope) illuminated some pricing inefficiencies with certain WRs. The idea is simple: If DraftKings and FanDuel priced WRs solely by their past-month target share, what’s should their salaries be? — and what’s the difference between that and their actual salaries? — and which players have the biggest differences?
Rishard Matthews ($4,900 DK, $5,700 FD): Matthews has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging a +4.51 FD Plus/Minus during that time frame. He had 10 targets last week against the Chiefs and now leads the Titans with a massive 31.43 percent target share over the last four games. That is the third-highest mark in the NFL, above WR1s like Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman, and the Denver duo. Matthews gets the unfortunate task of running routes against stud rookie CB Jalen Ramsey — he has a solid 74.2 coverage grade this season, per PFF — but he’s probably underpriced given his current offensive role.
Corey Coleman ($3,900 DK, $5,100 FD): Coleman has seen volatile weekly target totals, getting four, 11, seven, and 12 over his last four games. That’s to be expected with Robert Griffin III at QB, but Coleman is likely underpriced relative to his offensive potential. San Diego owns a top-10 pass defense, but the Chargers have nothing to play for and the Browns are ‘only’ 5.5-point dogs. Coleman is projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Odell Beckham ($8,600 DK, $8,800 FD): For as much as people want to scream about Beckham saving fantasy days by taking a slant to the house, the dude has been incredibly consistent. He’s had under nine targets only once since Week 1 and currently owns a massive, league-high 36.07 percent of his team’s targets over the past month. To put that in perspective: Jordy Nelson is second in the NFL during that time frame with 31.71 percent of his team’s targets. The Giants are 2.5-point favorites implied to score a mediocre 22.25 points against the Eagles, who own the league’s second-ranked pass defense. That said, a date with PFF’s 105th-ranked corner in Nolan Carroll is likely to make OBJ smile. Odell has the position’s third-highest FD ceiling projection.
Mike Evans ($8,500 DK, $8,900 FD): Evans is the highest-salaried player in the main slate (by a lot if Julio Jones can’t play), which seemingly isn’t too attractive considering he’s scored 7.9, 6.2, and 7.3 FD points over his last three games. Wait, Evans is at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, right? Never mind — the slate-high 26.2-point ceiling projection and 17-20 percent ownership projection feel about right.
T.Y. Hilton ($7,800 DK, $7,600 FD) and Donte Moncrief ($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD): Per the NFL News feed, Moncrief is now practicing in full and will play in the Colts’ Saturday game versus the Raiders. That’s not a complete disaster for Hilton, but he does have fewer fantasy points, targets, and TDs with Moncrief in the lineup than without him:
However, there could be plenty of presents to go around this week: The Colts are 3.5-point dogs currently implied to score 24.75 fantasy points against the Raiders, who rank 21st against the pass. Minnesota ranks fifth against the pass, and Andrew Luck and company went on the road last week and completely dismantled the Vikings 34-6. Hilton finished with a poor 3-45-0 line, but that was mostly because the game was over after the first quarter and the Colts proceeded to run the ball 40 times. Hilton is the No. 3 WR in the FD Levitan Model for the main slate, and he owns a +3.20 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Ted Ginn ($4,500 DK, $4,500 FD): If I had told you before the season, or even after Week 1 in which Kelvin Benjamin dominated the league’s best secondary in Denver, that Ginn would be Carolina’s WR1 in Week 16 . . . I don’t know what you’d think. You’d probably be happy that I saved you from rostering Benjamin throughout the year. Anyway, here we are: Ginn own’s a team-high 22.95 percent of Carolina’s targets over the last month and will face a Falcons secondary that ranks 26th in pass DVOA. He’s only $300 above min price on FD, and he’s projected for zero to one percent ownership in GPPs.
Julian Edelman ($6,900 DK, $6,700 FD): The Patriots are massive 16.5-point favorites implied to score a slate-high 30 points against a Jets team that just got rocked by Matt Moore and a poor Dolphins offense. Edelman is fifth in the NFL with 30.49 percent of his team’s targets over the past month, and he owns the position’s fourth-highest floor on DK, where his +3.95 Projected Plus/Minus and 99 percent Bargain Rating firmly place him in cash-game territory. The Jets are literally the worst pass defense in the league, but that huge spread is a bit concerning.
Jordy Nelson ($7,000 DK, $7,800 FD) and Davante Adams ($5,400 DK, $6,600 FD): Jordy leads the NFL in touchdowns, is second in target share over the past month, and hasn’t been below 10 FD points since October 20th. The matchup against a stout Vikings secondary isn’t ideal, but the Colts were able to dominate them last week on the road, and Jordy is certainly capable of doing the same at home. Adams has been volatile lately — he’s had 25, 104, 17, and 113 yards in his last four games — and he will line up opposite stud CB Terence Newman. Still, two to four percent ownership seems low.
The Coda
I know: Allen Robinson ($4,600 DK, $5,600 FD) can’t be this bad, right?
Honestly, it probably doesn’t matter in a Blake Bortles-led offense. Sorry, Allen.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 16 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks: By Matthew Freedman
• Running Backs: By Ian Hartitz
• Tight Ends: By Kelly McCann
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
