NFL Trend of the Week
Whether you’re playing in a high-stakes guaranteed prize pool or a beginner cash game, it’s always valuable to find upside players in good matchups. With nearly a full season of 2016 data, we can easily find upside players using our Trends tool.
First, let’s look for DraftKings quarterbacks with a record of big production. Then, let’s narrow the field down to players who are in good situations for Week 16.
Projections > Proj Pts > 5 to 26.7
With a minimum number of projected points, we are focused on QBs expected to start. We also have established a DK Plus/Minus baseline of +1.89.
Fantasy Year Filters > Season Upside > 33 to 100
The Season Upside filter shows the percentage of games a player exceeds his salary-based expected output by at least one-half of a standard deviation. We’re aiming for players who have hit their upside in at least one-third of their games over the past 12 months. A 33% Upside hit rate may seem low, but it’s difficult to exceed expectations that spectacularly on a consistent basis. The majority of matches fail to hit 50 percent.
Trends > Opp +/- > 1 to 12
An easy way to find a good matchup is to use the Opponent Positional Plus/Minus filter. We’re aiming for QBs facing defenses that have allowed a minimum of +1.00 Plus/Minus.
Overall, the final result is a strong +2.32 Plus/Minus, and the ownership is a reasonable 6.6 percent.
Current Matches
Matthew Stafford looks like a bounceback candidate in Week 16 after one of his worst performances of the season last week. He has an 88 percent Bargain Rating and ridiculous upside, evidenced by a 99th percentile Upside Rating (per his FantasyLabs player card).
Drew Brees did Breesy things on the road last week against Arizona. Unlike Stafford, Brees has an extremely high floor projection (97th percentile) to go along with his Upside (99th percentile). He’s likely to keep rolling in Week 16 in a division game that has a Vegas over/under of 50 points.
Cam Newton has been average this season, but he’s also blown up in good spots. At home facing the Falcons, he’s in another good spot, as the Falcons allow the most DK points in the league to opposing QBs.
Good luck this week!
