The Week 16 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 16 Tight Ends
“Well, I woke up this morning, and I got myself a beer,
The future’s uncertain, and the end is always near.”
— Jim Morrison
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, Freedman got strip-sacked by Santa so I’m throwing the ball.
Antonio Gates ($4,400 DK, $5,400 FD) and Hunter Henry ($3,500 DK, $5,400 FD): The Cleveland Browns rank dead last in pass defense against TEs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and allow 18.8 DraftKings and 15.0 FanDuel points per game (PPG) to the position — the highest marks in the league.
Gates has been targeted just 3.75 times in the past four weeks but is currently the No. 2 TE in the Bales Player Model for FD. He additionally has the highest projected ceiling among TEs on DK. Meanwhile, Henry — working as Gates’ backup — has scored a touchdown in four of the last five weeks. Conveniently, the Browns have allowed the most TDs (12) to TEs this season.
Greg Olsen ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD): Olsen is the top TE in three of our four Pro Models for FD, where he is currently tied with Gates for the position’s highest projected ceiling. Olsen has been targeted at least seven times in six of his last seven games and has averaged 7.14 targets per game during that stretch. Olsen has been targeted 113 times this season — more than any other TE.
The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (891), third-most touchdowns (eight), and fifth-most DK PPG (16) and FD PPG (12.8) to TEs this season. Olsen shredded the Falcons for 21.6 DK/18.6 FD points in their first meeting this season.
Travis Kelce ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD): Kelce has scored at least 18.1 points on DK and at least 12.6 points on FD in four of his last five games. During that stretch he has been targeted less than eight times only once. In fact, Kelce has averaged 8.5 targets per game in his last eight games. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kelce has a ridiculous 30.51 percent target share for the Chiefs over the last four weeks — tops among TEs.
The Broncos have been stout against TEs this season, but Kelce was targeted 15 times and had eight catches for 101 yards against them in Denver earlier this season. He is projected to have zero to one percent ownership on both sites, and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year. As Freedman would say, “Shh.”
Kyle Rudolph ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD): Rudolph has double-digit DK points in four straight games and five of the last six. He leads the Vikings with a 22.76 percent target share over the last four games.
Zach Ertz ($5,300 DK, $5,800 FD): After a rough start to 2016, Ertz has continually crushed his salary-based expectations and delivered a chunky Plus/Minus since the beginning of November. Per our Trends tool:
Ertz has been a beast on both sites — thanks to his 9.7 targets per game over his last seven games — but he’s especially attractive on FD, where he has delivered with 100 percent Consistency and continues to have a 97 percent Bargain Rating. The Giants rank third in pass DVOA overall but have struggled against TEs, ranking 26th against the position.
Delanie Walker ($4,300 DK, $6,400 FD): Walker is relatively inexpensive on DK, where he’s the highest-rated TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models. Per our Trends tool, Walker has feasted upon the Jaguars like a Christmas goose since 2014: In five games against Jacksonville he has produced a +5.83 Plus/Minus on DK and a +5.04 Plus/Minus on FD. Walker is second on the Titans with a 22.86 percent target share over the last four games.
Eric Ebron ($3,600 DK, $5,700): How ’bout them Cowboys? Dallas is the third-worst team in pass DVOA against TEs. The Cowboys have given up the fourth-most receptions (85) and eighth-most touchdowns (six) to TEs this season. Ebron is currently the second- or third-rated DK TE in all four of our Pro Models. The last time he screwed us all played on a holiday (Thanksgiving) he gifted DFS players zero points on one target. Luckily, this game will be played on the Monday after Christmas.
Daniel Brown ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): No defense has shown more Christmas spirit toward TEs than the Redskins over the past five weeks:
The Redskins have allowed five TEs on FD and six TEs on DK to score at least 10 points in their last six games. In fact, they allowed TEs from the same team — Zach Ertz and Trey Burton — to score 10 FD points each and combine for 37.7 DK points in a single game. Brown is minimum priced and projected for zero to one percent ownership on both sites. Shh.
Charles Clay ($3,200 DK, $4,500 FD): The Miami Dolphins have allowed 11.74 DK points and a +6.90 Plus/Minus to the position over their past four games. Clay has at least 52 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks and scored a TD in his last game. Plus, #RevengeNarrative.
Tyler Eifert ($4,800 DK , $6,700 FD): Eifert is coming of a brutal game in which he caught only one pass for nine yards. That said, Eifert has averaged 14.21 DK points in his most recent seven games. The matchup isn’t great: The Texans have allowed only one TE to score more than 10.5 DK points in the last six weeks. Also, Houston is the top-ranked team in pass DVOA against TEs.
Martellus Bennett ($4,100 DK, $5,600): Bennett has scored just one TD since his three-TD explosion against Cleveland 10 games ago. That said, the Jets have allowed Dion Sims and Dwayne Allen to have career-best games against them this December. Seems like a Festivus miracle could be in the works for Martellus.
Jason Witten ($3,400 DK, $4,900 FD): Witten may be old but he plays all the snaps:
He’s been targeted a total of 17 times the past two games and has a date with Detroit, who is ranked 25th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Jimmy Graham ($4,500 DK, $6,200 FD): The Arizona Cardinals have held opposing TEs to 5.44 DK PPG over the past four weeks and are No.3 in pass DVOA against TEs. Graham has just two total receptions in his last two games. Looking for a silver lining? Graham has been much more effective at home, where he’s averaged 15.76 DK PPG and a +6.95 Plus/Minus this season.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,700 DK, $4,900 FD): Prior to missing last week’s game with a concussion, Fiedorowicz had been targeted 32 times in four games. The problem: Nobody knows how C.J. will play with new QB Tom Savage under center.
Jordan Reed ($5,500 , $7,000): Nobody knows.
Cameron Brate ($3,900 DK, $5,600 FD): Brate has quietly crept up on Mike Evans‘ stranglehold of Jameis Winston‘s affections and is now second on the Buccaneers with a 23.08 percent target share the last four games.
Brate has scored at least 15 DK points in four of his last seven games and is currently the the third-rated TE for both DK and FD in the Levitanimal Player Model. He’s facing the Saints, who are 25th in pass DVOA against TEs, and he’s projected to be straight chalk at 17-20 percent ownership.
Also worth noting: Brate went to Harvard, so he’s more than likely wicked smaaaht. It’s unlikely he gets ejected for punching someone’s helmet.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 16 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks: By Matthew Freedman
• Running Backs: By Ian Hartitz
• Wide Receivers: By Bryan Mears
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week and Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, and Happy Festivus for the rest of us!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
