It’s Week 15! The season’s winding down, but there’s still some daily fantasy football to be played. Let’s look at some stacks using our Stacking tool. The following stacks are made using the Levitan Player Model.
QB-WR (DK): Andrew Luck-T.Y. Hilton
While Luck typically has a high ceiling projection, he doesn’t have that upside against the Vikings defense. He has the ninth-lowest DraftKings ceiling among all QBs, and with a depleted offensive line he could experience regular pressure. However, Luck has the third-highest median projection for all QBs at 20.2 points.
The Vikings secondary has been great this season — the Vikings are second against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average — but there are weaknesses to be exploited. Per our Matchups tool, Hilton is likely to run most of his routes in the slot against Captain Munnerlyn, who has the lowest Pro Football Focus coverage grade (77.9) of the the team’s three starting cornerbacks. With WR Donte Moncrief (hamstring) out, Hilton has the second-highest WR ceiling projection in the entire slate, and he leads all WRs with eight Pro Trends.
QB-TE (FD): Alex Smith-Travis Kelce
Smith has a low projected ceiling this (and every) week. Nevertheless, the former No. 1 draft pick isn’t unplayable. He’s dirt cheap and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among all FanDuel QBs at +2.89. Best of all, he’s facing the Titans, who over the last 16 games have given up an NFL-high +5.5 Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs.
Kelce has been rolling lately. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kelce is second in the NFL with 33.06 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games:
He has a position-high 11 Pro Trends and the highest TE at 19.2 points. He’s not scoring touchdowns, but otherwise he’s been everything anyone could want.
RB-D/ST (DK): LeSean McCoy-Buffalo D/ST
McCoy is a frustrating fantasy RB, but it’s not his fault. No. 2 running back Mike Gillislee has stolen touches from McCoy, scoring seven TDs this season, and there’s no sign of that changing. Regardless, McCoy is facing a miserable Browns defense that ranks dead last in rush DVOA. He could have a big game even if Gillislee does vulture a TD.
The Bills defense (per its FantasyLabs ownership projection) is expected to be fairly chalky, but the Bills are at home and facing a Browns team that’s 0-13 and starting Robert Griffin III at QB. They could cook up a lot of DST points with that recipe.
QB-RB-WR (FD): Matt Ryan-Devonta Freeman-Mohamed Sanu
All three players are currently No. 1 at their positions in the Levitan Model. Ryan and the Falcons have a slate-high 32.25-point Vegas total, which is more than five points higher than any other mark. Ryan is facing a 49ers defense that over the last year has allowed QBs to score a +2.2 Plus/Minus, the slate’s second-highest total.
Freeman was miserable last week. It’s hard to determine how Freeman and Tevin Coleman will split the backfield work, but luckily the 49ers are allowing RB units to score a league-high 30.0 FD points per game this year. Coleman is the No. 5 RB in the Levitan Model, so he’s a solid pivot play away from Freeman if he’s deemed too chalky.
Sanu is the top-rated DK and FD WR in the Levitan Model. He missed last week’s game with a groin injury, but he appears to be fully healthy and ready to roll. The 49ers give up the most fantasy points to WR1s, and that’s what Sanu will likely be in the absence of Julio Jones (toe):
Stats courtesy of Stephen Wildt of Pyromaniac.
Sanu has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any WR at +5.05.
QB-RB-WR-WR (DK): Colin Kaepernick-Carlos Hyde-Quinton Patton-Jeremy Kerley
Holy sh*t. There’s contrarianism — and then there’s contrarianism.
On the positive side, this stack takes up only $18,300 of cap space. On the negative side, you can’t take that money with you when you’re dead.
Kaepernick should throw the ball a lot in this game because the Falcons are likely to score a lot of points, and because of his running ability Kaep has the slate’s third-highest QB floor projection at 11.7 points.
Hyde has a great matchup, as the Falcons this season are allowing RB units to score 29.3 DK points per game, the league’s second-highest mark. Despite Hyde’s limited work in the passing game, he still returns value much more often than not, even though the 49ers are almost always trailing:
Hyde is an intriguing option at a projected ownership of just five to eight percent.
Kerley and Patton are intriguing tournament plays for two reasons:
- They’re both projected to be owned at zero to one percent.
- The 49ers will need to throw the ball constantly if they hope to remain competitive in this game.
Kerley and Patton both have top-five pts./salary marks (3.1 and 3.0), so they could provide value given their salaries — and they’ll also allow you to roster David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell.
Good luck, everyone!
