Friday brings a 10-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyle Lowry is currently the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a position-high +6.08 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a massive +5.19 Opponent Plus/Minus. He has an elite matchup against a Hawks team that ranks sixth in defensive efficiency but has been slipping lately and struggles versus opposing PGs. Dennis Schroder has been awful on that end — he has a -2.29 Defensive Real Plus/Minus (78th out of 84 eligible PGs) — and the Hawks can’t even slide wing Kent Bazemore over to defend PGs as they did last year, because he’s been atrocious this season and will likely play only about 20 minutes off the bench. Lowry should bounce back tonight and makes for an excellent cash-game FD play.
Value
With Kemba Walker ruled out for the Charlotte Hornets, Ramon Sessions will get the start against the Celtics. Last season, when Sessions was projected for 25-plus minutes (a.k.a. starting for John Wall), he averaged an +11.75 DK Plus/Minus and 29.52 DK points. He hit salary-based expectations every time. In his last three starts — in April of 2016 — he exceeded 40 DK points in each outings. It’s safe to say that he’ll be the chalky option at PG today, especially on DK, where his low $3,700 salary comes with a +4.85 Projected Plus/Minus, a 90 percent Bargain Rating, and a high +2.46 Opponent Plus/Minus versus the Celtics.
Leverage Play
The top PGs currently in the FD Phan Model are Isaiah Thomas and John Wall, who are both entirely too cheap at $7,000 and $8,900. Thomas is returning to the lineup after missing the last four games with a pulled groin, and he’s projected for his usual high 32.1 minutes and 31.85 usage rate. The Hornets have been an elite matchup for PGs this season — Thomas has a massive +3.27 Opponent Plus/Minus — and that likely undersells it against a 30-year-old Sessions instead of Walker. Wall is playable in all contest formats as well on DK, where he comes with a +7.45 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s exceeded value in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +9.57 Plus/Minus during that time.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the class of the high-priced studs: Of all players priced above $9,000 on FD — Harden, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Wall, Chris Paul, and Hassan Whiteside — only Harden and Brow have positive Opponent Plus/Minus values. The Rockets have been one of the best teams in the league this year: Their starting lineup with Patrick Beverley back has posted a massive +25.7 net rating in their eight December games. They are destroying teams lately, and they’re currently 12-point favorites implied to score a slate-high 116 points tonight against the Pelicans. Harden is currently the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his $11,800 salary comes with a +4.64 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, an 86 percent Bargain Rating, and a +2.43 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will play tonight and he’s currently projected for his usual high 34.0 minutes against the Wizards. Per our NBA News feed, KCP has taken the biggest hit with the return of PG Reggie Jackson: His usage rate has dropped by 7.6 percentage points when sharing the court with Jackson. He’s exceeded value in only half of his last 10 games. That said, his time with Reggie is a fairly small sample, and he’s too cheap regardless. He’s currently the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for DK, where his $4,600 salary comes with a +3.05 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. It is difficult to find an affordable starter at SG today, and KCP is at least that.
Also, I really like Evan Fournier tonight. That’s all.
Leverage Play
Giannis Antetokounmpo is an elite tournament pivot down from Harden tonight. He’s facing the Bulls on a weird same-team back-to-back that the NBA has liked to do this year, and he put up 57.3 FD points thanks to 30 points and 14 rebounds just last night in the same matchup. He is $1,900 cheaper than Harden on FD yet his projected ceiling is only 5.3 points lower. He’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership on FD compared to 26-30 percent for Harden, and they both have triple-double upside. Giannis has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +6.02 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s currently the No. 2 SG in the FD Phan Model behind Harden, and he has a position-high +8.08 Projected Plus/Minus and 12 Pro Trends.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler is a risky play — he had 31.1 FD points last night against these same Bucks, missing value by 6.27 points — but he’s still better than the rest of the SFs. As such, he’s the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $9,000 salary comes with a position-high +6.33 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He does have a +2.61 Opponent Plus/Minus, but that’s misleading since he’ll like be defended by the 6’11” Giannis instead of the Bucks’ ‘SF’ in Tony Snell. But, again, there’s no such thing as a safe SF in this slate, and Butler’s 29-point projected FD floor is nearly eight points higher than that of any other player. He’s projected for 26-30 ownership for good reason.
Value
According to our News feed, Markieff Morris is a game-time decision for tonight’s contest: “He was an extremely late scratch from Wednesday’s game due to a sore left foot, and he didn’t do much during Thursday’s practice.” If Kieff is ruled out, Kelly Oubre becomes a nice value play at only $4,000 on FD, where he has a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He played 40 minutes on Wednesday in Kieff’s absence and exceeded value by 11.72 FD points. He’s been coming on recently, which is good news for a Wizards team that has one of the worst benches in the league. He has an awful -4.71 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pistons, but that stat is based off of his current 85-15 percent split at SF and PF, and with Kieff out he will probably skew toward the four more than the three. In an ugly position, he’s viable in cash games if Kieff is ruled out and he projects to play 30-plus minutes again.
Leverage Play
We discussed Aaron Gordon in depth in today’s NBA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, as he’s a difficult player to analyze in this slate. He had easily his best performance of his season last game, dominating the fourth-ranked Clippers defense to the tune of 41.4 FD points, 33 real points, four 3-pointers, and seven rebounds. He dunked all over the place and gave even more ammunition to the NBA DFS community as to why he should be playing as the four in this offense and getting to the basket. He’s a risky play today mostly because there’s absolutely no guarantee that the Magic will ever play him that way again and also because the Clippers mostly defended him with a smaller CP3. That said, today’s matchup is as good as it gets: He’ll face a Brooklyn team that ranks third-worst in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions.
Power Forward
Stud
If you can afford only one of Harden and Anthony Davis, the former is much safer in cash games. That said, Brow’s 73-point projected FD ceiling is a whopping 18 points higher than that of any other PF in the slate, and his floor of 35.2 points is 11.2 points higher. He’s projected for (comparably) low FD ownership of 21-25 percent, which makes sense given his high $11,800 price tag. That said, he’s an elite tournament option and is a top-five PF in both the DK and FD Phan Models. He has a nice +1.75 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Rockets, who have been better defensively on the wing with Beverley back but still own the league’s 18th-ranked defense on the year, allowing 104.8 points per 100 possessions. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he will start opposite Ryan Anderson, who has a poor -0.5 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year.
Value
Jabari Parker has taken a leap this year and been particularly excellent lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +5.51 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He dropped 42.5 FD points in 35.1 minutes last game thanks to 28 real points against these very Bulls. They have struggled against opposing PFs this year, as highlighted by Jabari’s +1.76 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s an excellent cash-game option on FD, where his low $6,300 price tag comes with a +3.78 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Paul Millsap didn’t get into the ‘Stud’ section because of Davis’ inclusion in the slate, but he’s perhaps the best cash-game option alongside Jabari at PF tonight. He’s crushed value in each of his last four games since returning to the Hawks’ lineup, scoring at least 39 FD points in each contest and going for 55.8 just two games ago against the Bucks. Tonight he gets a Toronto team that ranks 19th defensively, allowing 105.0 points per 100 possessions. Toronto currently boasts the league’s best offense — in fact, it’s the most efficient offense in the history of the NBA with 115.3 points per 100 possessions — and the Hawks are currently 7.5-point dogs on the road. If they want to keep this game close, they’ll have to score early and often, and Millsap is the best bet on the roster to make that happen.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond is currently the No. 3 center in the Phan Model for DK, where his $7,600 salary comes with a +2.25 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He has an elite matchup against a Wizards squad that ranks bottom-10 in rebound rate, grabbing only 49.4 percent of the available boards on the year. They’ve been particularly generous to opposing centers: Drummond has a massive +5.24 Opponent Plus/Minus. He struggled in his last game, scoring only 22.25 DK points in 26.9 minutes against the slow-paced Mavericks, but he had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his prior seven games and has averaged a +5.38 Plus/Minus during that nine-game sample. He’s averaging 1.31 DK points per minute over the past year — the best mark in the slate among center-only players.
Value
This entire slate hinges on the upcoming news of whether Philly big man Joel Embiid will play tonight versus the Lakers. He’s been downgraded from probable to questionable after suffering a left knee contusion during practice on Thursday. If he’s unable to play — and that’s looking likely to be the case — then Jahlil Okafor moves into cash-lock territory. He’ll likely get the start in that situation without any minute restrictions, and that is quite the bargain at $5,100 on FD, where he comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating. The 76ers are facing the Lakers, who own the league’s worst defense, allowing an embarrassing 109.7 points per 100 possessions. His slate-high +6.17 Opponent Plus/Minus is difficult to fade.
Leverage Play
On DK, there are several elite mid-tier tournament options, such as Al Horford, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, and DeAndre Jordan. The first two are particularly intriguing, but we’ll focus on Horford, who is currently the No. 1 center in the DK Phan Model. This is mostly due to pricing, as his $6,300 salary is way too low and comes with a position-high +4.75 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He struggled last game against the Spurs but had been above 33 DK points in each of his last four games prior to that. He needs only 29.15 DK points to hit value tonight at that salary, and he has a nice matchup against stretch four Marvin Williams, who has been dealing with a troublesome left knee lately. Horford has a high ceiling — he dropped 55.1 FD points against the Kings a couple weeks ago — and is an excellent value at his currently salary.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
