The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 15 Tight Ends
“When the music’s over . . .”
— Jim Morrison
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Jordan Reed ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD): Reed (shoulder) played only 10 snaps last Sunday, but he has a good matchup this Monday night against the Panthers, who are 18th in pass defense against TEs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA) and allow 16.9 DraftKings and 14.2 FanDuel points per game (PPG) to the position. Those are the fourth- and second-highest marks in the league. Monitor Reed’s status via the FantasyLabs News feed.
Jimmy Graham ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD): Graham was awful last week, turning four targets into one catch for 16 yards — but he’s still been one of the best TEs in the league. Discounting his Week 1 warm-up in which he played limited snaps, Jimmy has been a good player, finishing with positive Plus/Minus values a majority of the time and rarely punishing his teams with bad performances. Per our Trends tool:
That said, Graham isn’t an ideal option this week. His ownership might be inflated because he plays on Thursday, the Rams are holding TE units to 9.3 DK and 7.3 FD PPG — the fifth-lowest marks in the league — and over the last four games Graham has seen only 17.86 percent of the Seahawks’ targets (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report):
That quarterback Russell Wilson has targeted wide receiver Jermaine Kearse more than Graham over the last month is a f*cking travesty. Is it any surprise he’s thrown eight interceptions in four games with Kearse as his No. 2 receiver?
Garrett Celek ($2,700 DK, $4,500 FD): Ostensibly $35 million richer, Vance McDonald (shoulder) is on Injured Reserve and Celek is the TE1 for the 49ers. He’s projected to have zero to one percent ownership against the Falcons, who are allowing 15.8 DK and 12.5 FD PPG to the position. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
Eric Ebron ($3,700 DK, $5,800 FD): Ebron is cheap on DK, where he’s the highest-rated TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models. He’s facing the Giants, who are 28th in pass DVOA against TEs, and he’s projected for only two to four percent ownership. Shh.
Of course, I wrote pretty much that same blurb last week, and Ebron turned five targets into 32 yards, so just ignore me.
Charles Clay ($2,800 DK, $4,500 FD): Clay is averaging 5.25 targets per game on the season, and he’s facing the Browns, who are dead last in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing league-high totals of 18.7 DK and 14.9 FD PPG to the position. He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
This time I really mean it. Shh.
Greg Olsen ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): Olsen has scored only one touchdown since Week 5 — but he still leads the Panthers with 104 targets, 65 receptions, and 907 yards. He’s the highest-rated FD TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models, and he’s facing the Redskins, who are 26th against TEs in pass DVOA and allowing 18.1 DK and 13.5 FD PPG to the position.
Ladarius Green ($3,700 DK, $5,600 FD): Ladarius is still working his way back into the offense, but he’s third on the Steelers with 17.74 percent of the team’s targets over the last four games, and he’s facing the Bengals, who are allowing TEs to score 17.0 DK and 13.6 FD PPG — the third-highest marks in the league.
With last week’s disappointing performance, his ownership could be lower than it should be.
Will Tye ($2,900 DK, $4,500 FD): You’d think I’d stop talking about Tye after a while, but evidently I haven’t. Tye is getting all the TE snaps in New York . . .
. . . and he’s facing the Lions, who are 29th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing them to score 15.4 DK and 12.5 FD PPG — the sixth-highest marks in the league.
Since last season, the Lions have allowed TEs to score 21 TDs in 29 games.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD): Rudolph is the highest-rated TE in the Levitan Model on FD, where he’s projected for a chalky nine to 12 percent ownership. He’s facing the Colts, who are 30th in pass DVOA against TEs, allowing them to score 14.4 DK and 11.3 FD PPG.
Zach Ertz ($4,900 DK, $5,900 FD): Over the last six weeks, Ertz has emerged as a reliable contributor in the Eagles offense. Per RotoViz:
Any other week, Ertz would be a strong option — and we’re projecting him for nine to 12 percent ownership — but he’s facing the Ravens, who are third in pass DVOA against TEs and holding them to 9.9 DK and 7.6 FD PPG — the sixth-lowest totals in the league.
Travis Kelce ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD): Kelce leads the Chiefs with a studly 33.06 percent of the team’s targets over the last four weeks. He’s likely to lose market share (eventually) with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (groin) back — but for this week Kelce leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends on FD, where he’s projected for a slate-high 17-20 percent ownership.
Delanie Walker ($3,900 DK, $6,100 FD): I recommended caution last week, and I’m doing the same this week. Walker has 27.18 percent of the Titans’ targets over the last four games — but he’s facing the Chiefs, who are holding TEs to 8.5 DK and 6.8 FD PPG — the third-lowest totals in the league.
For a guy who isn’t cheap, he has a matchup that isn’t easy.
Cameron Brate ($3,800 DK, $5,700 FD): Brate is second only to wide receiver Mike Evans on the Buccaneers with 71 targets, 51 receptions, 575 yards, and six touchdowns — and he’s facing the Cowboys, who are 31st in pass DVOA against TEs. He’s projected for only two to four percent ownership.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,600 DK, $5,000 FD): CJF has at least five targets in 10 straight games and is a consistent contributor in the Texans offense:
That’s a lot of per-game yardage for a guy who three months ago was just some random blocker. CJF (concussion) left Week 14 early, and he’s out for Week 15. In his absence, Ryan Griffin ($2,500 DK, $4,500) might see a boost in targets.
Jermaine Gresham ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): It’s official. Gresham is a thing. WR Larry Fitzgerald isn’t catching TDs, Michael Floyd is no longer on the team, John Brown is seeing limited snaps because of complications with his sickle cell trait, and J.J. Nelson might end up being more of a niche player than full-time receiver. Gresham has a role in this offense. He’s third on the Cardinals with 15.92 percent of the team’s targets over the last month — and he has two TDs in that time.
He’s facing the Saints, who are 25th in pass DVOA against TEs, and he’s projected for five to eight percent ownership.
The Coda
If we discount his Week 7 warm-up in which he played limited snaps, Tyler Eifert ($5,600 DK, $7,200 FD) has basically been his old self since returning from injury:
With WR A.J. Green (hamstring) potentially missing the game and pass-catching running back Giovani Bernard (knee) on Injured Reserve, Eifert is likely to be heavily involved in the game plan.
He’s expensive — but he has five TDs in the last six games and four targets inside the 10-yard line over the past month.
He’s playing against the Steelers, who are allowing middle-of-the-road marks of 13.2 DK and 10.6 FD PPG to TEs. That’s good enough. Eifert is projected for 13-16 percent ownership.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 15 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
