The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Week 15 Quarterbacks
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.”
— George W. Bush
Regardless of whatever you think about Dubya, we can all agree that he didn’t throw six interceptions over his last two games. I mean . . .
. . . how could someone do poorly when tutored by Jeff Garcia? — the personal QB coach for JaMarcus Russell??? Anyway . . .
If last week you rostered the guy who used to be the QB1 on the season, you got fooled twice.
In the words of the poet, “You can’t get fooled again.”
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown (and many pieces before that), QB salaries (in general) are inflated on FanDuel and deflated on DraftKings (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 80 percent. On DK, nine QBs have higher Bargain Ratings. Four of the 12 FD players with the highest salaries in the slate are QBs. On DK, only one QB has a top-12 salary. If you want to pay up for QBs, know that it’s easier to acquire top-tier QB Plus/Minus on FD than DK. Arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big Two
For several weeks in the middle of the season, we had the same group of QBs forming a consensus tier atop the DK and FD salary scales. This group was sometimes the Big Five and occasionally the Big Seven.
Over the past few weeks, though, consensus has been limited. In Weeks 13-14, we had the Big One Who Must Not Be Named . . .
. . . and this week we have the Big Two. Although they are the slate’s most expensive passers and top-four QBs in DK and FD points per game (PPG) on the season, neither guy leads the slate in ceiling projections. It’s that kind of week for the position.
If you want to roster either player, you probably won’t be making a bad investment. Per our Trends tool:
Among QBs who have started more than just a few games, the Big Two have been some of the most consistent passers on the season, and they have matchups that are no worse than average. DFS players who pay up for QBs this week will likely roster one of the Big Two:
• Matt Ryan: $7,300 DK, $8,500 FD
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,100 DK, $8,000 FD
Let’s dissect.
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
Ryan has more than a few factors in his favor. He has the highest median projection at the position, and he’s about the same price he was eight games ago (+$100 DK, -$200 FD). Even though he’s the slate’s QB1 by salary, he’s not priced exorbitantly — especially given his matchup.
The Falcons are 14-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 32.5 points . . . and they’re hosting the 49ers, who are 29th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The 49ers are allowing QBs to score 19.8 DK and 18.9 FD PPG — the sixth- and fifth-highest marks in the league.
When the 49ers have played outside of the division this year, they’ve been exploited by QBs:
In terms of overall production and advanced efficiency, Ryan is undoubtedly a top QB. Per Player Profiler:
All of that is great . . .
. . . Now let’s get to the six reasons why Ryan is problematic this week:
First, the Falcons are home favorites. With Kyle Shanahan at offensive coordinator, Ryan has been underproductive as a home favorite, especially against teams out of the division:
And that leads to the second point: As bad as the 49ers are against the pass, they are even worse against the run.
The 49ers allow by far the most fantasy points in the league to opposing running back units. It’s possible (read: probable) that the RB duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will destroy the 49ers, rendering Ryan and the passing game unnecessary for most of the contest.
Through no fault of his own, Ryan might get Gandalfed:
Thirdly, Ryan will be without stud wide receiver Julio Jones and his injured toe (per the FantasyLabs News feed). Last week’s performance notwithstanding — because not every QB can play every week against Jeff Fisher on the precipice of getting fired and/or setting the NFL record for coaching losses — Ryan is better with a healthy Julio than without him.
Since Julio entered the league, Ryan has been better when he’s given his No. 1 WR at least eight targets in a game than when he hasn’t. Per RotoViz:
Ryan throws more touchdowns and fewer interceptions with eight-target Julio — but the big difference is in his yardage: Without a target-heavy Julio, Ryan tends not to accumulate the yardage he needs to be a top performer. Even last week, when he threw three TDs against the Fisher-‘led’ Rams, Ryan still passed for only 237 yards . . .
. . . which brings us to the fourth point: Ryan has 300-plus passing yards in a game only once in the past two months. He’s still been good in that time, but the drop-off in his performance is apparent:
Fewer TDs, more INTs, fewer yards, fewer fantasy points: That’s not the recent performance you want to see out of the slate’s most expensive QB.
Fifth, it’s almost impossible to build a lineup with Ryan if the priority is to roster one of the slate’s stud RBs or WRs. If Ryan and Arizona RB David Johnson are rostered, only $4,657 DK and $5,957 FD remain with which to complete lineups — and those lineups don’t look great.
Finally, even though no QB in this slate is expected to be super chalky, Ryan does have top-three FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent for guaranteed prize pools. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.) Given the potential problems he has, it’s probably not wise to roster Ryan when he’s expensive and expected to be highly owned.
The Best Offense Is a Good Defense No Running Back
Despite battling with injuries for the past few weeks, Rodgers (calf/hamstring) is playing better than perhaps any other QB. He leads the NFL with 32 TDs passing, and he leads the Packers with three TDs rushing.
If A-Rod were an overhyped popstar . . .
. . . he’d definitely have comb over bangs, heavy eye makeup, and explosions in the background.
Over the last eight games, Rodgers has thrown multiple TDs in each contest. Not coincidentally, those are the games in which RB Eddie Lacy has been on the Injured Reserve. As you can see . . .
. . . Rodgers has been dominant ever since the Packers decided that running the ball was for losers.
But, like Ryan, Rodgers has issues.
For one, Rodgers has been Cody Kessler-esque this season with his ‘efficiency’: He’s averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt. That’s not a huge problem as long as Rodgers throws the ball 44.7 times per game, as he did in Weeks 7-12 — but when Rodgers has only 26.5 attempts per game, as he did in Weeks 13-14, that’s a big problem: No one likes QBs who average 227.5 yards per game.
The Packers are 6.5-point road favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Bears. A lot of that seems good — but Rodgers has notable career home/road splits . . .
. . . and the Bears, though 3-10, are not total trash. They’re 15th in the NFL with 22.3 PPG allowed. They’re holding QBs to 17.8 DK and 16.9 FD PPG — the 11th-lowest marks in the league. Defensively, they’re 14th in pass DVOA. This isn’t an especially fantasy-friendly matchup.
Also, there’s the weather. The temperature in Chicago is forecast for eight degrees Fahrenheit, and the Windy City will live up to its name with winds of 12 miles per hour. Rodgers is used to playing in suboptimal elements — but none of that is good.
Finally, Rodgers is projected to be chalky with nine to 12 percent DK ownership — and 17-20 percent FD ownership.
It’s theoretically hard to fade Rodgers — he’s first and sixth in the league with 95 and 63 red-zone and 20-yard pass attempts on the season — but Rodgers’ advanced efficiency doesn’t match up with his fantasy production. Per Player Profiler:
If you’re the type of person who doesn’t like to pay up for a QB when he’s . . .
- Injured
- Driven more by volume and situation and less by efficiency
- Facing a defense that actually isn’t bad
- Playing in cold windy weather
- Expected to be chalky
. . . you’re not alone.
The Forbidden Five
This slate is the stone-cold f*cking WOAT for elite QBs. Five of the season’s top-eight QBs in PPG have horrible matchups. On the one hand, it might be myopic to fade these QBs entirely, given their seasonal performances to date:
On the other hand, their matchups really are tough — and they’re all on the road:
• Tom Brady at Denver: $6,700 DK, $8,100 FD
• Drew Brees at Arizona: $6,600 DK, $8,200 FD
• Ben Roethlisberger at Cincinnati: $6,600 DK, $8,000 FD
• Andrew Luck at Minnesota: $6,400 DK, $8,100 FD
• Marcus Mariota at Kansas City: $6,500 DK, $7,700 FD
Looking . . . looking . . . still looking . . . found it!
Let’s break down these losers.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
Last week, Tomth Brader got back in the MVP discussion by completing 65.8 percent of his 38 pass attempts for 406 yards and three TDs against the Ravens, who at the time were fifth in pass DVOA.
This week, the Patriots are on the road against the Broncos, who defensively are No. 1 in DVOA. On top of that, they have a run-friendly funnel defense that is first in pass DVOA and 25th in rush DVOA. The Broncos are holding QBs to league-low marks with 244 completions, 2,595 yards, 10 TDs, and 13.5 DK and 13.0 FD PPG. Basically, the less Brady throws the ball, the better.
Then again, the Patriots are three-point favorites implied to score 23.5 points, and last year Brady was respectable on the road against defensive coordinator Wade Phillips’ unit:
So there’s hope for Brady, who is (after all) a top-two fantasy QB on the season with 24.64 DK and 22.98 FD PPG.
But do you really want to pay the fourth-highest QB salary for a guy you hope can hit his player-vs.-team average of 290 yards and two TDs? — especially when his team might feature a run-heavy game plan?
Home is Where the Points Are
The One Who Must Not Be Named isn’t playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football this week. Instead he’s on the road facing the Cardinals, who defensively are fourth in pass DVOA and holding QBs to 15.8 DK and 15.3 FD PPG — the fourth-lowest marks in the NFL.
It’s no secret that Brees is worse on the road than at home:
And on the road he’s at his worst as an underdog:
The Saints are 2.5-point underdogs implied to score 24 points.
Amazingly, Brees leads the slate with seven Pro Trends on DK, where he’s projected for two to four percent ownership.
As the saying goes, better your lineup than mine.
Rubberneck, Track No. 6
This week, Big Ben is away . . .
. . . where he has been astoundingly mediocre even with Antonio Brown as his primary WR.
Over the last three years, Brown has been perhaps the best WR in the NFL — and not even his awesomeness has kept Ben afloat as a road favorite:
The Steelers are three-point road favorites against the Bengals, who are 17th in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 19.7 DK and 18.4 FD PPG — the 10th-highest marks in the league. So it’s not a horrible matchup for Roethlisberger . . . except that he hasn’t done all that well against Marvin Lewis’ Bengals ever since he entered the league:
One final thought: The Steelers were road favorites last week. Roethlisberger had salary-implied expectations of 18.58 DK and 17.82 FD points. He finished with 5.6 fantasy points — in a game the Steelers won 27-20. Was there snow in that game? Sure.
How else were the football gawds to tell you not to play Roethlisberger as a road favorite?
There’s No Such Thing as Luck
The Colts are four-point road underdogs implied to score only 20.75 points against the Vikings, who are holding QBs to only 14.7 DK and 14.4 FD PPG — the third-lowest marks in the league. Additionally, they have a run-flowing funnel defense that is second in pass DVOA and 14th in rush DVOA.
In Luck’s 12 career games as a road underdog against non-division opponents, he’s been far from his best:
Over the last three years he’s been especially unimpressive as a non-division road dog:
And Luck will be without TD magnet Donte Moncrief (hamstring).
[Insert here a pithy quotation about luck, opportunity, etc.]Is This Really a Bad Spot?
The Titans are five-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points against the Chiefs, who are eighth in pass DVOA. All of that seems bad for Mariota . . .
. . . and yet the Chiefs are allowing a bearable 19.3 DK and 18.2 FD PPG to QBs, and the Maserati has been good as a road underdog throughout his short career, especially against non-division opponents:
If we remove the first month of the season — when the Titans coaching staff and some DFS players pretended that Tajae Sharpe was a WR1 worthy of seeing eight targets per game in his first four NFL contests — then we see that Mariota is a top-four fantasy QB . . .
. . . and he’s priced as the DK QB7 and the FD QB14. He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
If one of the Forbidden Five should be rostered in guaranteed prize pools . . .
. . . maybe it’s Mariota?
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Jared Goff ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD): More than five straight seasons of sub-.500 football couldn’t derail Jeff Fisher’s record-bound train, which this season in particular charged toward loss No. 166 like a runaway locomotive — but four straight career-opening Goff losses killed the coach that time forgot.
Goff is this week’s lowest-rated DK and FD QB in the Bales Model. He’s probably the worst QB in all the other Pro Models too, but I don’t want to take the time to verify that assumption. Goff has zero Pro Trends on both sites.
The Fisher-less Rams are 16-point road dogs implied to score 11.25 points against the Seahawks, who are holding all non-Goff QBs to 16.7 DK and 15.9 FD PPG.
By the way, the Rams’ 11.25-point team total . . .
. . . is the new low for our database. Even without Fisher, the team is still setting ignominious records.
If you’re looking for some Thursday Thunder, look elsewhere.
Matt Moore ($5,100 DK, $6,000 FD): Moore hasn’t really been an NFL QB since 2012. Then again, neither has Ryan Tannehill.
(Good luck with the knee, Ryan. The NFL’s not the same without you.)
Amazingly, the Dolphins are two-point road favorites — but they’re implied to score only 20 points. At least they’re playing against the Jets, who have a pass-friendly funnel defense that’s dead last in pass DVOA and sixth in rush DVOA.
Just maybe, Saturday night’s alright for fighting.
Alex Smith ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD): The Chiefs are playing against the Titans. The Titans are allowing QBs to score 20.6 DK and 19.3 FD PPG — the third-highest marks in the league. Technically, the Utahn water walker is a QB.
I swear, no one can turn chicken salad into chicken sh*t the way Smith can. That’s one of his miracles.
Brock Osweiler ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD): I won’t talk about Oz. You can’t make me.
Derek Carr ($6,300 DK, $7,900 FD): The Raiders are three-point road favorites implied to score 26 points against the Chargers. I don’t want to undersell a QB with a high team total or reduce him to one trend — but the Chargers are ninth in pass DVOA, and Carr has been horrible throughout his career in divisional road games:
He’s not especially chalky, but we are projecting him for five to eight percent ownership.
Jameis Winston ($6,100 DK, $7,800 FD): The Buccaneers are seven-point road underdogs implied to score 19.75 points against the Cowboys, who are 24th in pass DVOA. For all 14 road games of his career, he’s been a dog. If I were a poet, that would be a metaphor.
Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DK, $7,800 FD): Even without a dislocated middle finger . . .
. . . Stafford is a douche risky play. Add in the fact that . . .
- The Lions are four-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points against the Giants;
- The Giants are fifth in pass DVOA and holding QBs to 14.7 DK and 13.8 FD PPG — the second-lowest marks in the league;
- The forecast currently calls for a 75 percent chance of cold precipitation;
- He looks like a douche . . .
. . . and it’s clear that he should be avoided like a genital staph infection.
Joe Flacco ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD): The Ravens are 5.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Eagles. Flacco has been the No. 1 fantasy QB over the last two weeks . . .
. . . and even though the Eagles are third in pass DVOA they’ve allowed QBs to benefit from tremendous home/away splits against them:
If not for that 54 percent chance of precipitation . . .
Russell Wilson ($6,300 DK, $7,600 FD): Ordinarily we might expect Wilson to have elevated ownership since he’s playing on Thursday — but he’s coming off a five-INT Richie Tenenbaum-esque meltdown, so his ownership might be reasonable.
The Seahawks are 16-point home favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the Fisher-less Rams. On the one hand, that spread is so big that Wilson might be called upon to throw the ball only occasionally as the game progresses. On the other hand, the Seahawks have the third-highest team total of the slate.
The largest spread we have in our three-year database is 16.5 points. If we look at all QBs whose teams have been double-digit favorites implied to score 24.25 to 30.25 points . . .
. . . we’ll see a cohort of QBs who killed DFS players. Look at that ownership.
Eli Manning ($5,600 DK, $7,700 FD): On the positive side, he has zero to one percent projected ownership and is playing as a home favorite against the Lions, who are 30th in pass DVOA. On the negative side, there’s a 75 percent chance of precipitation, and he has a 46.2 percent Consistency Rating this year. I mean, he’s Eli F*cking Manning.
Eli Manning Sam Bradford ($5,600 $5,000 DK, $7,700 $6,700 FD): On the positive side, he has zero to one percent projected ownership and is playing as a home favorite against the Lions Colts, who are 30th 26th in pass DVOA. On the negative side, there’s a 75 percent chance of precipitation, and he has a 46.2 percent Consistency Rating this year. I mean, he’s not even Eli F*cking Manning.
Carson Palmer ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD): The Cardinals are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.5 points against the Saints, who are 28th in pass DVOA. Palmer’s disappointed this season, but he’s been on his game as a home favorite, especially against non-division opponents:
This trend probably isn’t a fluke, as Palmer has thrived in this situation ever since arriving in Arizona:
He’s projected for two to four and five to eight percent DK and FD ownership.
Trevor Siemian ($5,200 DK, $6,600 FD): The Broncos are three-point home underdogs implied to score only 20.5 points against the Pats.
I know that Siemian sucks, the Pats are looking for #NarrativeStreet revenge, and New England head coach Bill Belichick is a master at scheming against inexperienced QBs.
But Siemian has done relatively well this year against teams in the bottom half of the league in pass DVOA . . .
. . . and the Pats are 27th in pass DVOA
Siemian’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Philip Rivers ($6,200 DK, $7,800 FD): The Chargers are three-point home underdogs implied to score 23 points against the divisional rival Raiders. Rivers has been subpar his entire career as a home dog, and that hasn’t changed since Mike McCoy became his head coach in 2013:
And as a divisional home dog . . .
. . . over the last three years Rivers has been less dog and more dog sh*t.
Dak Prescott ($6,200 DK, $7,900 FD): The Cowboys are seven-point home favorites implied to score 26.75 points against the Bucs, who have a run-friendly funnel defense that’s sixth in pass DVOA and 21st in rush DVOA. On the surface, this game might set up better for RB Ezekiel Elliott, especially since, uh . . .
. . . Dak has . . .
. . . struggled . . .
. . . over the past two weeks.
At the same time, Dak has been good at home, as a favorite, and when those two factors are combined:
As long as the Bucs don’t wear Giants jerseys on Sunday night, Dak has a chance.
Cam Newton ($6,400 DK, $7,700 FD): The Panthers are 6.5-point road underdogs. When the line opened, they were implied to score 23.25 points. Now they’re implied to score 22. It’s not an ideal situation for Newton (shoulder), who’s dealing with an injury but expected to play.
At the same time, Newton has actually been productive in his career as a road underdog:
Newton has top-three floor projections for DK and FD.
The Super Models
As I write this, there are four QBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Kirk Cousins: $6,800 DK, $7,500 FD
• Colin Kaepernick: $5,800 DK, $7,600 FD
• Tyrod Taylor: $5,700 DK, $7,500 FD
• Robert Griffin III: $5,000 DK, $6,100 FD
Get your freak on.
“You Like That?! You Like That?!”
Cousins is the highest-rated FD QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models: D*mn straight.
It sucks that Cousins isn’t in the main slate. There’s this perception that he’s underwhelmed over the last two games, but he actually hit value in Weeks 13-14, he’s the QB6 on the season with 21.41 DK and 19.87 FD PPG, and he leads all starting QBs with his 84.6 percent seasonal Consistency.
And let’s examine his last two games: He was on the road against the Cardinals and then the Eagles. Those teams are third and fourth in pass DVOA. They’re third and fifth defensively in total DVOA. The Redskins averaged 25 PPG. And Cousins still did fairly well:
Since becoming the weekly starter last season, Cousins has thrived as a home favorite:
The Redskins are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.5 points against the Panthers, who have a QB-flowing funnel defense ranked eighth in rush DVOA and 16th in pass DVOA. They’re allowing QBs to score 19.9 DK and 18.6 FD PPG.
Cousins is ridiculously underpriced on FD. By salary he’s the DK QB3 but the FD QB19. Because of the pricing divergence, he has a slate-high 80 percent FD Bargain Rating.
Cousins has the highest DK and FD ceiling projections in the slate.
Konami Code Colin
We got spoiled during Kaep’s first six weeks as a starter:
It was naïve to believe that Kaep’s roll would never slow. He was always bound to have some bad weeks — because he’s not a good QB.
But he’s in a ‘good’ spot this week: The 49ers are 14-point road underdogs implied to score 18.75 points. All of that seems awful, but running QBs minimize the effects of negative home/road dynamics and Vegas lines, and Kaep has still been able to manage 19.45 DK and 18.45 FD PPG even though the 49ers have scored only 17.5 PPG in his eight starts.
It’s hard to ignore a starting QB averaging 52 rushing yards per game. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kaep leads all QBs with 20.35 percent of his team’s rushes through the last four weeks:
As was discussed on this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Kaep is one of the few mid-tier QBs you can reasonably play in cash games this week if you’re also wanting to roster DJ and/or RB Le’Veon Bell. He might seem like a risky play, but Kaep has top-five DK and FD floor projections.
He’s currently the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales and Levitan Models, and he’s facing the Falcons, who are allowing NFL-high totals of 21.3 DK and 20.5 FD PPG to QBs.
In TyGod We Trust
Taylor is the highest-rated QB in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models for DK, where he’s been consistently productive since Week 3, when the Bills parted ways with former offensive coordinator Greg Roman:
The Bills are 10.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Browns, who are 31st in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 21.2 DK and 20.2 FD PPG — the second-highest marks in the NFL. In his 13 starts at home over the last two years, Taylor has a +4.42 DK Plus/Minus with 84.6 percent Consistency.
Tyrod has been supported by his strong rushing production this year, as he’s averaged 44.18 yards and 0.55 TDs on the ground per game since Week 3.
He has the highest floor projection on DK as well as a slate-high 13-16 percent ownership projection.
A GIF You Recognize
When Levitanimal saw that RG3 was the highest-rated FD QB in the Levitan Model, I was glad that I live about 1,000 miles away:
We’re projecting Griffin for zero to one percent ownership.
The Coda
NEWS ALERT: Blake Bortles ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD) is a road underdog. It might seem horrible for Bortles that the Jaguars are six-point road dogs implied to score only 16.75 points against the Texans — but all of that is actually good.
Since breaking out last year, he’s a GOAT as a road underdog . . .
. . . and his numbers improve slightly when he’s playing within the division:
Playing Bortles in cash games is just asking to be nut-punched — but in GPPs at zero to one percent projected ownership???
I love that GIF.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 15 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
