Tuesday brings a six-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Despite being priced at historic DFS salaries, Russell Westbrook has still managed to exceed salary-based expectations:
He’s exceeded value in eight of his last nine games, averaging a ridiculous +8.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus during that time. Today he should be as chalky as he’ll be all year: He’s facing the Portland Trail Blazers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 109.9 points per 100 possessions on the season. Damian Lillard has been one of the worst PG defenders since entering the league: He ranks 75th out of 85 qualified PGs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (-2.08) on the season. Per our NBA Trends tool, Westbrook has averaged 61.5 DraftKings points and a massive +10.24 Plus/Minus in his last six games against Lillard and the Blazers. You should probably play him.
Value
According to this year’s Opponent Plus/Minus data, Knicks PG Derrick Rose has the most DFS-friendly matchup. He’s facing the Suns, who play at the league’s second-fastest pace (103.9 possessions per game) yet have the seventh-worst defense, allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been especially generous to PGs: Rose has a +4.38 Opponent Plus/Minus on DK, where his manageable $6,300 salary comes with a +2.25 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. The Knicks are currently implied to score 110.75 points on the road — the second-highest mark of the slate.
Leverage Play
Tonight sets up for a PG duel between Westbrook and Damian Lillard. The Thunder are good defensively — they rank sixth in defensive efficiency, allowing 101.5 points per 100 possessions — but they’ve been awful against PGs. Lillard has a high +2.44 Opponent Plus/Minus on DK, where he’s the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model currently. His salary is oddly low: He’s only $8,300, and he has a +5.95 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. If you’re looking to play multiple lineups in guaranteed prize pools, you can use our Groups function in Player Models to lock Lillard and Westbrook into your core.
Shooting Guard
Stud
No shooting guard is priced above $7,600 FD, so Dwyane Wade ($6,600 DK, $7,300 FD) is the ‘Stud’ for this slate. Wade has been incredible lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games and averaging a +6.69 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of his last six games, and he’s currently projected for 34.3 minutes and a massive 30.63 usage rate. He has a negative matchup against the Wolves — his -3.02 Opponent Plus/Minus is the worst mark of the slate — but he’s in play because of his low price. He needs only 30 DK points to hit value tonight, a mark he’s far exceeded in each of his last nine games. He’s the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for DK, where he has a position-high +5.85 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Wade leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, but trailing him is Klay Thompson, who is coming off a 43.5-point DK outing against the Wolves. He took 21 shots in that game, and he’s had fewer than 14 shots only once in his last 15 games. He’s projected for 33.8 minutes and a 24.29 usage rate against the Pelicans, who are defensively average, allowing 104.0 points per 100 possessions. They’ve struggled specifically against SGs, and Klay has a +1.0 DK Opponent Plus/Minus. He’ll match up against rookie Buddy Hield, who has a poor -2.6 Defensive Real Plus/Minus and doesn’t have the defensive prowess to hang with Klay. Shooting guard is fairly tough today, and Klay provides a safe floor of minutes and high upside if he gets hot shooting the ball.
Leverage Play
At $7,100 DK and $7,600, CJ McCollum is the priciest guy on both sites (excluding Jimmy Butler, who is SF-only eligible on FD). McCollum’s projected for only nine to 12 and 13-16 percent DK and FD ownership, which is far lower than the 17-20 percent projected ownership of his backcourt mate in Lillard. While Lillard is certainly a better play in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus, McCollum still has a lot of upside: The Blazers are currently one-point favorites implied for 109.5 points — the third-highest mark in the slate. He dropped 53 DK points just two games ago and is projected for 33.2 minutes and a 28.91 usage rate tonight. He’s a better deal on DK, where he has 10 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is currently the No. 1 SF option in both the DK and FD Phan Models. The Cavs opened as 13-point favorites over the Grizzlies and have since moved to 15.5-point favorites implied to score 107.75 points. That’s a scary spread, especially if you want to roster LeBron in cash, but note that Kevin Durant and the Warriors are also double-digit favorites over the Pelicans. LBJ has been excellent lately and is coming off a mammoth performance, dropping 72.8 FD points on 44 real points, nine rebounds, and 10 assists. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, and he’s projected to exceed it by 6.54 FD tonight — the highest mark among all SFs. He’s projected for a position-high 26-30 percent FD ownership and should be quite chalky at just $10,000.
Value
The four highest-priced SF options — LeBron, Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Jimmy Butler — firmly sit in a tier of their own in regards to value and safety. They should probably constitute a majority of your SF exposure tonight. That said, Andre Roberson is a punt option at only $4,000 on FD, where he has a +3.18 Projected Plus/Minus (the third-highest value behind LBJ and Melo’s marks), six Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s a low usage player — he’s projected to use only 10.4 percent of his team’s possessions tonight — but he’s projected for 35.4 minutes and has exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 2.90 FD points in his last nine games.
Leverage Play
Carmelo Anthony is currently the No. 2 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $7,800 salary comes with a +3.70 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 68 percent Bargain Rating. Anthony, Durant, and Butler are all elite pivot options off the chalky LeBron. That said, Melo is the cheapest of the bunch and he has the best matchup against the Suns, as shown by his position-high +2.92 Opponent Plus/Minus. This Knicks-Suns game has the slate’s second-highest over/under (219), and the Knicks are currently implied for 110.75 points. Melo is far too volatile for cash games, but he has a high 51.0-point projected FD ceiling in this matchup. He’s an excellent GPP option.
Power Forward
Stud
According to Opponent Plus/Minus, Anthony Davis has a below-average matchup against the Warriors, as highlighted by his +0.35 mark. At the same time, Davis has historically had success against the Warriors:
That ain’t too shabby: Over his last 11 games against the Warriors, Brow has averaged 55.57 DK points and a +5.63 Plus/Minus, exceeding value in 81.8 percent of the contests. He’s easily the No. 1 PF option in the Phan Model for DK, where his $11,300 salary comes with a position-high +5.95 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for a high 36-40 percent ownership, and he’s just about the only reason that Westbrook won’t see 50-plus percent ownership in this slate. Davis has struggled lately, but he has a massive 80.9-point projected ceiling.
Value
Finding value PFs is difficult in this slate, but Serge Ibaka is likely underpriced at $6,200 on FD, where he comes with a +2.92 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. Of all the PF options on FD, only seven are currently projected for 30-plus minutes. Ibaka will start and is projected to play 31.3 minutes and use 18.71 percent of his team’s possessions. He has a matchup that seems negative — the Hawks are second in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.5 points per 100 possessions — but his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03 suggests they’ve been fairly generous to opposing PFs on the season. He’s coming off a 36.8-point FD outing against the Nuggets and has posted four blocks in three of his last five games.
Leverage Play
Davis has historically crushed against the Warriors, but it hasn’t been at the expense of Draymond Green. In Green’s last 13 games against the Pelicans, he’s averaged 41.87 DK points and a massive +9.03 Plus/Minus, exceeding value in 84.6 percent of his contests:
Draymond’s usage and DFS value have been volatile this season — which is to be expected since he plays with Klay, Durant, and Stephen Curry — but there’s no denying his upside in this matchup: He’s second among FD PFs with a 48.3-point projected ceiling. He’s currently the No. 2 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a +2.70 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a +2.75 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Center
Stud
Neither of the high-priced centers — Karl-Anthony Towns versus Chicago and Dwight Howard versus Orlando — have plus matchups today, but Howard is cheaper at $6,900 DK and $7,600 FD and at least has some rebounding upside. While the Bulls rank second in the league with a 53.0 percent rebound rate, the Magic sit 23rd, grabbing only 48.8 percent of their available boards. Howard struggled in his last game, scoring only 25.4 FD points in 28.3 minutes versus the Bucks, but the game before that he dominated the Heat, putting up a massive 23-17 line. He’s currently the No. 1 center-only option in the Phan Model for DK, where he has a +1.55 Projected Plus/Minus, five Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Robin Lopez is currently the No. 2 center in the Phan Model for FD (behind Steven Adams), where his $5,100 salary comes with a +2.45 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a high +3.77 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Tom Thibodeau-led young Wolves team has struggled to pick up his complicated defense: They currently rank 27th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 109.2 points per 100 possessions. The center position is ugly in this slate, but Lopez has actually played well recently: He’s averaged a respectable +4.23 FD Plus/Minus in his last nine games, exceeding value in 66.7 percent of those contests.
Leverage Play
Even though Karl-Anthony Towns has a negative matchup against a Bulls team that ranks ninth in defensive efficiency and second in rebound rate, he’s easily the most talented player at center tonight. He’s not a great value at $8,600 DK and $8,800 FD, but he leads all options with a projected ceiling of 51 FD points. He hasn’t played this exact version of the Bulls, but he’s put up 51.5 DK points and a silly +16.85 Plus/Minus in his two career games against them. That sample might be unrepresentative of tonight’s matchup, but he still has 10 FD Pro Trends and a 27.4 projected usage rate that easily leads the position. Sometimes, the best move in GPPs is just to roster the best player.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
