The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of Sunday morning. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Projected Plus/Minus (DK): +4.23, Eli Manning
This week’s prime time slate is challenging. The two best QBs of the cohort, Tom Brady and Dak Prescott, are both facing top-eight defenses overall and against the pass. Meanwhile, volatile QBs Eli Manning and Joe Flacco face pass defenses ranked 25th or worse in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Eli has the easiest matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 27th defensively against the pass and have allowed a combined 696 passing yards over the past two weeks to Sam Bradford and Kirk Cousins. Eli is the cheapest option of the group, and he’s thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his last five games. The Eli-Odell Beckham stack will be a popular combination.
Projected Ceiling (FD): $8,600, Tom Brady
Brady is the most expensive option on the board despite facing the second-ranked Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank first against the run and fifth against the pass. While that might not seem like a funnel defense, it actually is because the Ravens are so far and away the best team in the league against the run. If the Patriots win this game — and they’re favored by 6.5 points — it’ll almost surely be because of Brady’s arm as opposed to LeGarrette Blount‘s legs. Brady has missed salary-based expectations in each of his last two games, although his volume and efficiency have been fine: He threw 46 and 50 times against the Rams and Jets. Blount has been taking a large percentage of the Patriots’ touchdowns, but that seems less likely to happen today. Brady is an elite option in guaranteed prize pools even in this matchup.
Running Back
Consistency, Last 12 Months: 91 percent, Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke is clearly the class of the RB group, and his ceiling projection of 30.5 DK points is nearly five points higher than that of any other RB. He has a tough matchup against a Giants defense that ranks fifth against the rush this year, but Zeke has been consistent no matter the matchup. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and averaged a whopping +7.13 Plus/Minus during that time. He had one of his worst games against these Giants earlier in the year, but he still managed to get into the end zone, and his work in the passing game has since increased: He’s been targeted 12 times over the past three weeks. He’ll be one of the chalkier plays in the slate, but for good reason.
Targets Per Game, Last 12 Months: 5, James White and Dion Lewis
If you believe that the Ravens rush defense is in a league of its own this year (and you probably should), then it makes sense to target Brady’s pass-catching backs instead of Blount. Lewis has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games and is the highest-rated Patriots back in the Bales Player Model for DK. He’s only $100 DK more expensive than White, and he leads the slate with a +3.97 Projected Plus/Minus and five Pro Trends. He has the second-highest median projection. White will be the less-owned option of the two, but he should still get quite a bit of work in the passing game: He has 20 targets in the past three games.
Wide Receiver
Points Per $1,000 Salary (FD): 2.0, Odell Beckham
Beckham is the most expensive WR in the slate by $700 FD, but he’s still the best ‘value,’ per our Player Models. He leads all WRs in points per $1,000 salary and has a high +2.75 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s been an absolute monster lately: Per the Market Share Report, he’s second in the NFL in target share over the past four games (30.82 percent), and he’s averaging a touchdown per game in his last eight games. He had 16 targets last week, and he’s facing a Dallas defense that is 27th in pass DVOA. Cornerback Brandon Carr has been solid this year — he grades as Pro Football Focus’ 27th-ranked CB — but Beckham will also see a bit of Anthony Brown, who has been much worse. Beckham has a massive 24.4-point projected FD ceiling.
Target Share of Receiving Touchdowns, Last 12 Months: 35.0 percent, Dez Bryant
Bryant has come on strong: He’s posted at least 16 FD points and a touchdown in three of his last four games. He’s faced some tough defenses lately and put up impressive lines of 4-84-1 against the Vikings and 6-80-2 against the Ravens. He’ll have another test this week — the Giants rank a stout seventh versus the pass — but Dez has the ability to have a big performance. A one-on-one matchup against Janoris Jenkins isn’t ideal, but it could lower his ownership in the small slate, especially since he’s only $700 FD cheaper than Odell. Bryant has a ton of touchdown equity in the Cowboys’ offense, and Dallas is currently implied for 24.75 points.
Tight End
Red-Zone Opportunities Per Game, Last 12 Months: 1.06, Jason Witten
Witten didn’t catch a pass last week against the Vikings. The last time that happened was November 2nd, 2008, against these very Giants. With the impressive 130-game streak over, the Cowboys will likely try to get Witten involved in the offense. It’s a great week to do so, as the Giants are rank 27th in pass DVOA against the position. Witten has a massive +4.3 Opponent Plus/Minus as well as ‘Narrative Street’ on his side. At only $3,100 DK, he seems like a worthwhile investment in tournaments.
Bargain Rating (FD): 89 percent, Dennis Pitta
Martellus Bennett will surely be popular without Rob Gronkowski playing, but Pitta is $700 FD cheaper and coming off his best game of the season, posting a ridiculous 9-90-2 line on 11 targets. The Patriots aren’t as bad as the Giants against TEs, but they rank 23rd against the position. The Ravens are currently 6.5-point dogs, so they might feature a pass-heavy offense as the game progresses. Pitta owns 16.23 percent of the Ravens’ targets over the past month and is an elite GPP pivot away from the likely chalkiness of Witten and Bennett.
Good luck!
