Week 14 projects to be one of the lowest-scoring weeks of the entire season. There’s only one game (TB vs. NO) with an implied Vegas total of over 50. Using our Stacking Tool, we’ll identify a few stacks that carry significant upside. The following stacks are made with the Levitan Player Model.
QB-WR (DK): Eli Manning-Odell Beckham
Manning has a slate-high 98 percent Bargain Rating and is facing a Dallas defense ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Manning has failed to surpass 200 passing yards four times this season, but he has a plethora of weapons and is an intriguing option in guaranteed prize pools given his relatively low FantasyLabs ownership projection.
Cheaper than Mike Evans and Antonio Brown, Beckham might be a popular pivot play, especially since he’s earned the reputation of Mr. December, scoring 11 touchdowns through eight December games since joining the NFL. Per our Trends tool, OBJ has scored an unbelievable 14.13 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations during the month of December:
Also, as Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman highlighted in the WR Breakdown, Beckham plays big as a home underdog, averaging 27.43 DK points with 87.5 percent Consistency.
QB-TE (FD): Cam Newton-Greg Olsen
This is a GPP-only option. Both Newton and Olsen have been miserable lately. Newton has completed only 14 passes in three straight games. Still, Newton is inordinately cheap at $7,800 with a slate-high 12.5-point floor projection, and his game’s 49-point over/under is one of the highest of the week. Newton is projected to be in few GPP lineups, and he always has the potential to run for a TD as well.
Olsen has surpassed 50 receiving yards just once over his last six games. It’s nearly impossible to trust him in cash, but he’s still a top-three fantasy TE, and the Chargers are allowing 10.2 FD points per game to the position.
RB-D/ST (DK): DeMarco Murray-Titans D/ST
Murray has slowed down a bit since his torrid start to the season, but his price just keeps dropping. He’s down to $7,000, and he should be fresh coming off a bye week. The Broncos have a funnel defense that might push production toward the running game: It’s first in pass DVOA but 26th in rush DVOA. Murray could do some unexpected damage if he approaches his average of 22.8 touches per game.
The Titans have been horrible on defense this year, scoring only 5.33 points per game, but they recently cut their primary liability, Perrish Cox, who has a horrible Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 35.6. The Titans haven’t scored a defensive or special teams touchdown this season, so their upside is likely limited, but at least their facing a Broncos offense that has allowed defenses a +1.52 Plus/Minus over the last two months.
QB-RB-WR (FD): Andrew Luck-Frank Gore-T.Y. Hilton
The Houston Texans defense is average (13th in DVOA), and the only reason they can even be considered average is because of A.J. Bouye, PFF’s No. 3 CB. Per our Matchups tool, he’s likely to cover Donte Moncrief for much of the game, leaving Hilton to run most of his routes in the slot against Kareem Jackson, who has a below-average PFF grade of 63.7 and allows an obscene 0.41 fantasy points per route.
The Colts have the third-highest implied Vegas total of the week at 26.75 points, so this stack has serious upside at a relatively low cost. Over the last two weeks, Luck has thrown a season-low 28 attempts in each game, but he’s likely to come closer to his season average of 36.6 attempts in Week 14.
Gore is about as unsexy as a GPP play gets, but he seven TDs — three of which are receiving scores –and he’s averaging 79.4 scrimmage yards per game. He’s touched the ball 19.75 times per game over the last four games.
QB-RB-WR-WR (DK): Trevor Siemian-Devontae Booker-Emmanuel Sanders-Demaryius Thomas
The Titans defense is 27th in DVOA and over the last two months has allowed QBs to score 26.39 DK points per game on 100 percent Consistency. They’re middle of the pack against the run — ranking 14th in rush DVOA — but Booker should see significant action with Kapri Bibbs now on Injured Reserve.
After missing last game’s week, Siemian (foot) is fully expected to this week. He is extremely cheap and warrants consideration in tournaments given the matchup and his projected ownership.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Thomas and Sanders are tied for third in the NFL with 30 percent of their team’s target market share over the last four games. Both of them have the potential to put up big games against a defense allowing WRs to score 43.7 DK points per game — the highest mark in the NFL.
Good luck, everyone!
