Friday brings a nine-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is easily the most-expensive player in the slate at $12,800 DK and $12,700 FD, but the salaries are warranted: He’s exceeded value in each of his last 10 games, averaging a ridiculous +11.13 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He hasn’t been below 50 FD points in 11 games, and he gets a plus matchup tonight against the Rockets, who rank 22nd defensively on the year, allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions. This game has the highest Vegas total on the board at 224 points, and the Thunder are implied for a slate-high 112.5 points. Westbrook is projected for 36.4 minutes and a high 39.94 usage rate, and he leads the entire slate with a Projected Plus/Minus of +9.58 on FD, where he also has 14 Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating. It’s probably wise to find a way to fit him in your lineups.
Value
Goran Dragic remains affordable on FD, where his $7,300 price tag comes with a +4.79 Projected Plus/Minus, 14 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. This seems like a negative matchup on the surface — the Cavs are large 11-point favorites over the Heat — but Dragic’s huge +4.08 Opponent Plus/Minus tells a different story. Kyrie Irving is a lackadaisical regular-season defender, as shown by his poor -2.4 Defensive Real Plus/Minus. Dragic is projected for 35.8 minutes and a massive 30.94 usage rate, which is the fourth-highest mark among PGs tonight. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six games and makes for a fine cash-game option.
Leverage Play
Because of the minute distributions, it’s difficult to find great plays in the Suns-Lakers game despite it’s high total of 220.5. That said, Eric Bledsoe is an elite tournament option on DK, where his low $7,400 price tag comes with a +4.35 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. The Lakers are now tied for the worst defense in the league, allowing an embarrassing 109.1 points per 100 possessions. The Suns are implied for 109.5 points, and this game could easily shoot out, as the spread is only 1.5 points right now. Bledsoe has an elite +3.05 Opponent Plus/Minus and could absolutely dominate the Lakers, who are starting Marcelo Huertas at PG.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo have similar projected ceilings on FD, yet Giannis is $10,300 and $1,200 cheaper than Harden. Harden is always an option in tournaments — the Rockets are implied to score 111.5 points against the Thunder — but Giannis is projected for only 13-16 percent ownership. He put up 54.9 FD points in his last game on a 15-12-11 triple-double with two steals and four blocks. Tonight he faces the Hawks, who have been excellent defensively, allowing 100.3 points per 100 possessions — but they’ve been below-average against opposing SGs. Giannis has a +0.71 Opponent Plus/Minus and is generally an impossible matchup for all teams given his PG role and 6’11” frame. He remains a PG on DK.
Value
Lou Williams could be one of the chalkiest cash-game plays on the slate on FD, where his $6,000 price tag comes with a +7.60 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model and is projected to be owned a position-high 21-25 percent. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games and 45 FD points in two of his last three. He’s scored 24, 38, and 40 real points in his last three outings, and the Lakers are currently implied for 111 points — the third-highest total on the slate. He has an elite +3.28 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Norman Powell should get the start tonight for the resting DeMarre Carroll. Per the NBA On/Off tool, in his four games without Carroll, Powell has exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 12.9 DK points per game and has increased his usage rate by 2.5 percent:
He’s in play on both sites, but he particularly stands out on FD, where his minimum $3,500 salary comes with a +7.57 Projected Plus/Minus and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He has a negative matchup against Jae Crowder and the Boston Celtics, but a min-priced guy projected for nearly 30 minutes is tough to ignore.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games, scoring at least 44 FD points during that time frame. He faces his old team in the Heat, who are average defensively, allowing 103.0 points per 100 possessions. That said, they’ve struggled specifically against wings: LeBron has a +1.65 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight, and he should start opposite Rodney McGruder, an undrafted D-League journeyman playing in his first NBA season. LeBron is the most expensive option on both sites at $9,600 DK and $9,800 FD, but he’s still expected to exceed value by 2.15 DK and 4.12 FD points. If you can pay up for him in cash games, he’s a strong option.
Value
Nicolas Batum has been excellent recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last four games and posting at least 33 DK points during that time despite playing in tough matchups. He has another subpar one tonight against the Magic, who rank 11th defensively, allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions. That said, Batum is definitely in play on DK, where his $6,500 salary comes with a +3.65 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Backcourt mate Kemba Walker is also a great tournament option against the Orlando wings, but Batum will likely go underowned: He’s currently projected for only five to eight percent ownership on DK. He’s projected for 34.5 minutes and a 20.33 usage rate.
Leverage Play
With Derrick Rose ruled out Friday, Carmelo Anthony becomes an elite option in guaranteed prize pools. He’s currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $7,300 salary comes with a position-high +7.09 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for 35.7 minutes and a large 30.57 usage rate, which makes him viable in cash games, even with his recent volatility. He has the position’s second-highest projected floor and ceiling, and he costs $1,100 less than Paul George on FD. He struggled last time out against the Kings, putting up 26.3 FD points in 36.2 minutes of action, but it’s hard to ignore him with Rose out.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis remains too cheap on FD for the millionth game in a row: His $7,400 salary comes with a +5.85 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently the No. 2 FD PF in the Phan Model, and he’s projected for a position-high 17-20 percent ownership. He’s struggled a bit recently — he’s put up 18.6- and 23.5-point FD duds in two of his last five games — but those were against very tough matchups, the most recent coming against the Cavs. He had a 15-14 line just three games ago against these very Kings, who rank 21st defensively on the year, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions.
Value
Dwight Powell, like Lou Williams, is going to be very chalky tonight. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games and has averaged a +5.29 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10. He’s in play on both sites, but he’s an incredible value on FD, where his low $4,000 price tag comes with a position-high +6.78 Projected Plus/Minus, 98 percent Bargain Rating, and a massive +4.34 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s put up at least 25 FD points in each of his last three games, and he needs only 15.42 points to hit value tonight.
Leverage Play
Paul Millsap will play tonight, and he’s been excellent in his two games since returning to the Hawks’ lineup. He’s posted back-to-back games of 40-plus FD points and has seven steals and three blocks in that time. He’s the most expensive option on the slate at $7,500 DK and $8,000 FD, but he could likely go underowned because of the value in Powell, his price point relative to Kristaps’ salary, and the $6,000-range options in Julius Randle and Jabari Parker. The Bucks have been solid defensively this year, ranking eighth in efficiency, but that’s largely due to their wing players. They’ve been bad against big men: Millsap has a +1.99 Opponent Plus/Minus and Hawks center Dwight Howard has an elite +3.66 mark. The PF spot remains a tough DFS position, but Millsap has a high ceiling given his ability to fill up a box score and should carry low ownership.
Center
Stud
Speaking of Dwight Howard: He’s currently the No. 2 center in the Phan Model for DK, where his low $7,200 price tag comes with a +4.05 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He absolutely dominated last game against Hassan Whiteside, scoring 23 points and 17 rebounds — a 57.25-point DK outing — and he has an elite matchup tonight. He’ll start opposite John Henson, who has allowed a +3.7 Plus/Minus to opposing centers over the past year. Howard is projected for 32.1 minutes and has averaged 1.26 DK points per minute over the past year. His projected ceiling is comparable to that of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is $1,100 more expensive.
Value
Channing Frye has been ruled out tonight for the Cavaliers and Kevin Love is questionable with back spasms. Make sure to monitor the NBA News feed prior to lock, as Tristan Thompson will be an elite value play if Love is ruled out. The Cavs would likely start Richard Jefferson or Mike Dunleavy at the PF spot in that case, both of whom are stretch bigs who don’t grab many rebounds. Tristan would be a solid bet to reach the double-double bonus and would be a cash-game option at just $4,900 DK and especially $5,100 FD. The Cavs are currently 11-point favorites over the visiting Heat, who rank 22nd in rebound rate.
Leverage Play
It will be difficult to fit both Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins into the same lineup, which makes the latter an elite GPP option at projected lower ownership. He’s at 17-20 percent on FD compared to 36-40 percent for Westbrook. Boogie has been crushing lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games and scoring at least 50 FD points during that time frame. He’s currently the No. 3 center on DK and the No. 2 on FD in the Phan Model, and he comes with high Projected Plus/Minus values of +5.05 and +5.77. He boasts an elite matchup against a Knicks team that ranks 27th defensively, allowing 108.3 points per 100 possessions on the season.
Good luck!.
News Updates
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