The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Falcons at Rams
Vegas currently has this game with a projected total of 45 points. The visiting Falcons are 6.5-point road favorites implied to score 25.75 points. The Rams are currently implied for 19.25 points playing at home.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
The Rams pass defense has held quarterbacks to a -0.2 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus. Say what you will about Jeff Fisher, but he and Gregg Williams have formed a dominant defensive unit that has stifled opposing QBs at home over the past two seasons:
The Rams have allowed just five passing touchdowns to opposing QBs at home versus 15 on the road. The Rams will be getting back a healthy Robert Quinn (concussion), Ryan might be without his left tackle, Jake Matthews (knee). Ryan is priced as the fourth-highest FD quarterback.
RB – Devonta Freeman
Things look a little better for the running game against LA, which has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and ranks in the bottom 12 in DraftKings points allowed. Freeman has averaged just 17.2 touches per game over his last five games but he’s scored six times over that span. The Rams just gave up an 18-88-1 rushing line to LeGarrette Blount last week and a combined 29-197-1 to Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower the week before that. Our Player Models have Freeman with a 26.3-point ceiling projection on DK.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Mohamed Sanu has been declared out for Week 14, and Julio Jones isn’t certain to play. If Ryan is limited in his receivers this week, he may look in Coleman’s direction. Coleman’s had some big receiving games this season — 5-95-0 in Week 1, 4-132-1 in Week 4 — and with his speed he’s a threat to score anytime he touches the ball. He has seven TDs in the nine games he’s played.
WR – Julio Jones
Julio (toe) missed practice this week and is officially questionable. He’s reportedly a game-time decision and is likely to be a decoy if he does play. Monitor the FantasyLabs News feed for updates.
Per our Matchups tool, if Julio plays he’s expected to face Trumaine Johnson, and while that isn’t necessarily a negative it will likely leave Julio unable to line up against the vulnerable E.J. Gaines, PFF’s fourth-lowest graded corner. Given his exorbitant price tag in a game in which the Falcons likely won’t need to target him, Julio’s a risky option.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu (groin) is out. Justin Hardy is a possible option to take over slot duties.
WR – Taylor Gabriel
Gabriel could see an uptick in volume out of necessity this week, and we saw just a few weeks ago that he’s a threat to score anytime he gets the ball in space. Expected to run most of his routes against Gaines — who allows the third-most fantasy points per route — Gabriel has at least five targets in four straight games.
TE – Austin Hooper
The Rams rank 18th in pass DVOA against opposing TEs. They have allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to the position, and only one TE has scored against them since Week 3. Despite the extra targets he might get as a result of the WR injuries, Hooper isn’t in a great spot. He was held catchless last week.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Jared Goff
Goff has an elite matchup this week, facing a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA — and he still has the position’s second-lowest projected floor at 8.1 FD points. He’s not an option in cash games, and in the best situation possible for a starting QB — at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football — he had three touchdowns but also only 214 passing yards on 20 completions. Those 17.6 FD points aren’t winning guarantees prize pools.
RB – Todd Gurley
Is this the week to roll out Gurley? He’s all the way down to $5,000 on DK, where he has a high +4.15 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He has an elite +3.7 Opponent Plus/Minus against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 27th against the rush. Gurley is currently the No. 3 DK RB in the Bales Model. He saw a decrease in touches the last two weeks, getting only 11 and 13 rushes against the Patriots and the Saints, but those are both teams that strongly funnel production toward the passing game. The Falcons are the opposite. Gurley still owns a respectable 70.7 percent of the team’s targets over the past month. If not in Week 14, when?
RB – Benny Cunningham
Cunningham has 9.8 and 6.6 percent of the team’s rushes and targets over the past month. The ‘receiving back’ has gotten fewer receiving opportunities than Gurley.
As it is, Cunningham (neck) is doubtful to play in Week 14.
WR – Kenny Britt
That Britt has put up these numbers with Goff and Case Keenum as his QBs and Jeff Fisher his head coach is darn impressive. Look at his last seven games:
Per the Market Share Report, Britt leads the team with a whopping 27.1 percent of the targets over the past month; second is TE Lance Kendricks with 17.2 percent. Britt’s clearly the WR1 in LA, and he’s only $5,200 DK against an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA. Britt’s currently the No. 2 WR in the Bales Model for DK, where he comes with a +3.18 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 73 percent Bargain Rating. Further, he’s expected to face CB Robert Alford, who is PFF’s No. 72 CB with a below-average 69.1 coverage grade.
WR – Brian Quick
Quick is third on the team behind Britt and Kendricks with 16.4 percent of the team’s targets over the past month. He has a limited ceiling: He hasn’t been over 48 yards in the past five weeks and hasn’t gotten into the end zone since Week 4. He’s expected to draw coverage against the Falcons’ best CB in Jalen Collins, who has been excellent this year: He’s PFF’s 16th-ranked corner with a coverage grade of 83.3. Quick has a low projected floor of 2.1 DK points.
WR – Tavon Austin
It’s been five weeks since Tavon had more than four receptions in a game. He owns only 10.7 percent of the Rams’ targets over the past month, although he did miss last week’s game with a chest injury. He should return this week but will line up opposite slot corner Brian Poole, PFF’s 41st-ranked corner on the year with a 77.2 coverage grade.
TE – Lance Kendricks
Kendricks is currently the No. 3 TE in the Bales Model for DK, where his low $2,800 salary comes with a massive +5.15 Projected Plus/Minus, 69 percent Bargain Rating, and a 5.2 Opponent Plus/Minus. He has an elite matchup against the Falcons, who have been the fourth-worst team in the league against fantasy TEs over the past year. Kendricks’ projected floor of 3.0 DK points is likely too low for cash games, but he’s a viable punt play in large-field GPPs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
