Thursday brings a six-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall dropped 52 real points in his last game (70.8 total FD points) and now gets a matchup with the Nuggets, who are by far the worst team in the league at defending PGs this season. Wall has a slate-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.36 on FD, where he’s projected to outpace his salary-based expectation by 7.12 points. He’s currently the No. 1 player among all positions in the DK Phan Model, and he’s just behind Joel Embiid on FD. He comes with high price tags of $9,500 DK and $9,800 FD, but he’s clearly one of the premier cash-game options in this slate. The Wizards are currently implied for a slate-high 111.75 points.
Value
If looking to punt one of the PG spots tonight, Shelvin Mack is in line for nearly 30 minutes tonight with George Hill, Rodney Hood, and Gordon Hayward ruled out for the Jazz. They have a tough matchup against the Warriors, and this game is a difficult one to analyze until we get further news on who will play. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said he might rest players tonight after their game against the Clippers last night, and that’s looking like a prudent move with all the Jazz injuries. Regardless, Mack is in play because of his price on FD: His low $3,700 salary comes with a +5.89 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Outside of a poor game against the Miami Heat, Damian Lillard has been excellent lately, scoring at least 49 DK points in four of his last six. He’s flashed a huge ceiling recently, notably dropping 68.25 DK points a week ago against the Cavaliers. He has a large pricing discrepancy between the sites and is a much better play on DK, where his low $8,300 salary comes with a +4.15 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s in a weird price range, as he sits $100 less than Stephen Curry — if he plays, he’ll get Utah minus their three best wing defenders — and $100 more than Kyle Lowry, who gets a superior matchup in the Wolves. As such, Dame could see reduced ownership in tournaments: He’s currently projected at 17-20 percent, which is lower than the higher-priced studs.
Shooting Guard
Stud
CJ McCollum has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games, taking at least 15 shots per game during that time frame. He’s projected for 32.2 minutes and a high 29.16 usage rate tonight against a Grizzlies team that has surprisingly been below average against SGs this season: McCollum boasts a +1.72 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Blazers opened as 2.5-point dogs on the road, but they’ve since moved all the way to 1.5-point favorites — a massive four-point swing. McCollum is the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for DK, where his $6,600 price tag comes with a +3.45 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s in play in all formats there, while his higher $7,400 salary on FD makes him more of a tournament play.
Value
Will Barton is the cash-game chalk again tonight on FD, as his salary just won’t budge. He’s exceeded value in each of his four games since returning to the lineup and has played at least 33 minutes per game during that time frame. For some reason, his price actually dropped since last game to $5,700 on FD. He leads the position there with a massive +7.21 Projected Plus/Minus, and he also comes with seven Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He has an average matchup against the Wizards — he owns a mediocre +0.03 Opponent Plus/Minus — but that doesn’t really matter given his price. He’s the No. 1 SG in the FD Phan Model and is projected for 41-plus percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Bradley Beal will likely be popular tonight, but his ownership levels will definitely be less than those of his backcourt mate in Wall, who is projected for 26-30 percent ownership on DK. If people elect not to stack the Wizards backcourt, there’s an easy pivot available in this slate, as McCollum is only $100 more expensive than Beal. Beal actually has the superior matchup — he boasts a +2.07 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Nuggets — and higher Projected Plus/Minus at +4.75. While Beal is projected for less usage (26.97 percent) than McCollum, he is projected to play 36.7 minutes. Beal is the No. 2 SG in both the DK and FD Phan Models and is an elite GPP play on both sites.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler is the most difficult player to analyze in this slate. He’s in the worst matchup possible for a SF, as he’ll face Spurs stud defensive wing Kawhi Leonard. That said, DK is pricing players according to their matchups more often this year, and Butler’s $8,000 salary is down $900 from last game and nearly $1,500 from just a week ago. Butler has an awful -2.44 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight, but he’s worth considering in GPPs solely because of that reduced salary. He’s currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for DK, where he comes with a +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. It’s terrifying to test Kawhi — and perhaps you shouldn’t in cash games — but that $8,000 price tag is worth some exposure in tournaments.
Value
Otto Porter is coming off perhaps his worst game of the year, scoring only 9.6 FD points in 27.2 minutes against the revamped Magic defense. Prior to that game, he had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games, scoring at least 25 FD during that time frame. This is a nice bounce-back spot for Porter: His salary has dipped to $6,000 FD and he’s facing a Nuggets team that ranks 25th on defense this year, allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions. He’s the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with a position-high +6.20 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Joe Johnson is 35 years old and averaging a poor 0.67 FD points per minute over the past year. That said, the Jazz are missing their entire starting backcourt, which means that JJ should approach 30 minutes tonight against the Warriors. As such, it’s hard to fade his near-minimum $3,600 price tag on FD, where he comes with a +5.03 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. This isn’t a great matchup — the Warriors have jumped up to the ninth-best defense in the league, allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions — but, again, Kerr could rest his starters. At his price point, JJ needs only 13.67 FD points to hit value.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is $12,100 on FD, and he’s still projected to exceed his salary-based expectations by a silly 7.12 fantasy points. Despite the high price tags, he’s the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for both sites, largely because of an elite matchup against the 76ers. They remain a bottom-10 team defensively this year, allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions. They have been better when Joel Embiid has played, but Davis typically plays the four alongside Omer Asik. That means he’ll likely start opposite Ersan Ilyasova, who is awful defensively. Ilyasova owns a -0.73 Defensive Real Plus/Minus this year, which is 85th out of 92 eligible PFs. The guy ranked last? That would be Dario Saric, who is also slated to receive minutes opposite Brow. Davis is pricey, but he should eat tonight.
Value
It’s scary to trust so many Jazz bench players in this slate, but they are all worth a look because of their near-minimum price tags. Boris Diaw is currently the No. 3 PF in the Phan Model for DK, where his $3,400 salary comes with a +4.05 Projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership of 21-25 percent. He makes some sense alongside Brow — especially on FD, where you have to roster two PFs — as a punt play at the position. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games, scoring at least 17.5 DK points during that time. He played 33 minutes last game, and he’s currently projected for 25.6 minutes and a 20.42 usage rate tonight against the Warriors. He’s risky in cash games given his 6.3-point projected floor, but he needs only 14.65 DK points to hit value at his low salary.
Leverage Play
If Draymond Green plays tonight, he’s an elite GPP option down from Davis. He’s only $7,300 on DK, where he comes with a +4.15 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently the No. 2 PF in the DK Phan Model, and his -4.65 Opponent Plus/Minus likely isn’t representative of this matchup given that the Jazz are missing four of their five starters. Draymond has seen abbreviated minutes lately — mostly due to blowouts — but he’s still averaged a +1.21 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Monitor this situation as lock approaches, as the Warriors starters will certainly dictate slate value.
Center
Stud
It’s another night in which Joel Embiid will be the chalky cash-game option on FD. He’s absolutely crushed value lately — he’s averaged a +4.62 Plus/Minus over the last 10 games — and is still only $6,600. He’s currently the No. 1 C option by a mile in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with a +6.86 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Matchups aren’t too important for Embiid’s DFS outlook, but he does get a nice one tonight against the Pelicans: He owns a +3.06 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Pelicans have been the third-worst rebounding team in the league this year, posting a poor 47.5 percent rebound rate. Embiid is a solid bet for a double-double yet again.
Value
It’s almost impossible to justify playing Marcin Gortat at $6,300 FD in cash games when Embiid is only $300 more. That said, Gortat is still a nice value tonight and gets a positive matchup against a Nuggets team that ranks 25th defensively, allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions. Gortat is a top-five option in both the DK and FD Phan Models tonight, although he’s a better bargain on DK (almost all centers are), as his $5,800 price tag comes with a +3.05 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. Embiid is $7,500 there, which makes Gortat much more interesting, although it will negatively affect his ownership levels. Gortat is a GPP play in a high-total game and could be a bit sneaky.
Leverage Play
With Embiid on the slate, the GPP move might be to pay up for Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns is in a great spot tonight against a Raptors team that ranks only 15th defensively on the year, allowing 104.2 points per 100 possessions. Further, since Bismack Biyombo‘s departure over the summer, Toronto has been very poor against centers: KAT owns a +2.06 Opponent Plus/Minus on DK. He’s currently the No. 2 center in the Phan Model there, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends. He’s projected for 34.1 minutes and a 27.98 usage rate tonight, and he owns a massive 62.2-point projected ceiling.
Good luck!.
News Updates
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