The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Chargers at Panthers
The Panthers are one-point home favorites over the Chargers in the game with the second-highest over/under of the week at 48 points. San Diego has an implied team total of 23.5 points; Carolina, 24.5 points.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
The narrative that Rivers lacks upside because of Melvin Gordon may be overblown, as he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in five straight weeks. Now he faces a Panthers funnel defense that is 18th against the pass and sixth against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Rivers is the QB8 in DraftKings salary, but he has the third-highest ceiling projection in our models and the No. 5 QB in our Tournament Player Model. Rivers has some potential as a contrarian tournament play at two to four percent projected ownership. Per our Trends tool, slight road underdog QBs with comparable salaries typically perform above salary-based expectations on DK (per our Plus/Minus metric):
RB – Melvin Gordon
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, over his last four games Gordon has 11 opportunities inside the 10-yard line, fourth-most in the NFL, and we know that opportunity is everything:
Unfortunately, this week’s matchup is against the Panthers’ stout run defense — although it will likely be less stout as Charles Johnson (hamstring) and Luke Kuechly (concussion) have both been ruled out. (Johnson is Pro Football Focus’ No. 11 edge defender against the run, and Kuechly is PFF’s No. 2 overall inside linebacker.) One positive is that, although the Panthers defense ranks sixth in rush DVOA, it’s also just 17th in pass DVOA against RBs. Gordon is the No. 8 FD RB in our Tournament Model with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and a nine to 12 percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million. He’s best as a tournament play because of the tough matchup, but even with that he has the position’s fifth-highest ceiling projection.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams (shoulder) is clearly limited by his injury, as he saw just four targets last week. Even so, Tyrell owns the eighth-highest target market share in the league over the past four games. He’s been one of the league’s best WRs over the last couple of months, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last six games and ranking ninth in yards after the catch this season. He carries more risk in cash games but currently is the No. 10 DK WR in our Tournament Model, as he has PFF’s 18th-most advantageous WR/CB matchup this week with Daryl Worley.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Benjamin has played sparingly since his Week 12 return, but he might more if Williams is limited by his shoulder injury. Per our Matchups tool, Benjamin does draw a tough matchup against outside CB James Bradberry, PFF’s No. 19 CB with a coverage grade of 82. He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
If Williams or Benjamin is limited, Inman could again be an unreal value at $5500 on FD, where he holds an 88 percent Bargain Rating. Expected to face CB Leonard Johnson, Inman PFF’s eighth-most advantageous WR/CB matchup. Quietly, Inman is top-30 in target share over the past four weeks. He has some sneaky upside at zero to one percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million.
TE – Antonio Gates
Gates put up a total goose egg two weeks ago, not even getting a target, and last week he dropped a 4-37 line on the Bucs. This week, his matchup is softer, as he’s facing a Panthers defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA against TEs and has allowed an awful +5.8 FD Opponent Plus/Minus to the position over the past 16 games. The Chargers could be motivated to get Gates the ball near the goal line, as he’s just three TDs shy of owning the all-time TE record outright. At just $5,200 FD, he’s the highest-rated TE in the Tournament Model and has the fourth-highest ceiling on the slate.
TE – Hunter Henry
Henry at $2,900 DK could be a leverage play on Gates. He is currently the second-highest rated TE in our Tournament Model on DK, where he owns a 99 percent Bargain Rating and is projected to be zero to one percent owned in the Millionaire Maker.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
A slight home favorite, Newton takes on a Chargers defense that has performed well recently. The Chargers have allowed just one QB to score 20-plus DK points and just one QB to throw for 300-plus yards since Week 5. They’ve moved up to eighth in pass DVOA. Newton on the other hand has been in a tailspin. He has thrown multiple TDs in just two of his last 10 games. He’s severely underperformed over that span:
He is the lowest-rated QB in the Levitan Model and has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
RB – Jonathan Stewart
This patchwork Panthers offensive line has made it difficult for Stewart to gain much on the ground. He is averaging just 58.8 yards since the Week 7 bye and has just three receptions over that span. A TD-or-bust RB, he has a 92 percent FD Bargain Rating but also a dangerous 3.5-point projected floor.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
After scoring four TDs in his first four games of the season, Benjamin has reached the end zone just once since then. He has had three or fewer receptions in his last three games. This week, he gets the unenviable task of taking on Casey Hayward, who just limited Mike Evans to a 3-38-0 stat line in shadow coverage. PFF’s No. 6 CB, Hayward is expected to shadow Benjamin. The Chargers have held opposing wide receivers to a -1.6 FD Plus/Minus.
WR – Ted Ginn Jr.
Ginn draws a significantly better matchup this week, as he’s expected to line up against Craig Mager on most of his routes. Mager has a terrible coverage PFF grade, ranking in the bottom 10 of the 123 qualifying corners. Ginn has six-plus targets in six of his last seven games and has scored a touchdown in three straight. He has seven FD Pro Trends.
WR – Devin Funchess and Philly Brown
Funchess has had more than two receptions just once in the past five games. He has double-digit DK points in only two games this season. Brown hasn’t had a reception in three straight games and has a floor projection of zero FD points. Cam’s recent struggles make both of them difficult to roster.
TE – Greg Olsen
Olsen has also seen a decline in productivity over the past few games and has cleared 50-plus receiving yards just once since Week 6. This could be a bounceback spot for Olsen, given the recent performances San Diego has allowed to the position. The Chargers allowed a 6-86-1 line to Cameron Brate last week and a combined 9-86-0 to Houston’s trio of tight ends in Week 12. Olsen has at least seven targets in four of his last five games and enters this week with a 24-point projected ceiling on DK with eight Pro Trends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
