The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Cowboys at Giants
The Cowboys are 3.5-point road favorites for their Sunday Night Football matchup with the Giants. The Cowboys are implied to score 25.25 points — the sixth-highest total on the slate. Meanwhile, the Giants are implied to score 21.75 points at home in this battle atop the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Prescott failed to score at least 20.5 DraftKings points for the first time in seven games last week: He has averaged 22.59 DK points during that time. The Giants are currently ranked seventh against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Per our Trends tool, New York has held QBs to a -1.05 DK Opponent Plus/Minus this season. That said, Prescott lit up the Ravens — ranked fifth in pass DVOA — for 301 yards, three touchdowns, and 28.6 DK points just three weeks ago. Dak is currently the No. 1 QB in the CSURAM88 Player Model for DK, where he has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent in the Millionaire Maker. Dak could be a Sunday night hammer.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
He’s really good. You should play him. The end.
Dallas’ offensive line is the No. 2 unit in adjusted line yards this season, and Elliott leads the NFL in rushing (1,285) by more than 200 yards. Zeke has also been targeted 14 times in his past four games, turning those targets into 12 catches for 140 yards receiving. The Giants are tough on the run, ranking fifth in rush DVOA, but Elliott has been matchup-proof, averaging 20.3 FanDuel points per game and an imposing +7.14 Plus/Minus against the top-10 rush DVOA units in 2016. Elliott has a 99 percent FD Bargain Rating and is currently the No. 1 FD RB in five of our six Pro Models.
RB – Alfred Morris
Morris has eight carries in the past four games. No, thank you.
WR – Dez Bryant
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Bryant leads the Cowboys with a 27.52 percent target share over the past four weeks. Dez has averaged 7.5 targets, 88 receiving yards, and 17.43 FD points per game during that stretch. Per our Matchups tool, Bryant will be locked up for most of the game with Janoris Jenkins, Pro Football Focus’ No. 15 cover cornerback. Despite the matchup, Bryant should be a fairly popular stacking partner with Dak. We’re projecting him for nine to 12 percent ownership in the Sunday Million.
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley’s role has diminished in the offense as the season has progressed: After averaging 15.12 DK points during the first six games of the season, Beasley has averaged just 11.17 in his last six. Cole has been targeted 25 times (22.94 percent target share) over the past four weeks but has failed to score double-digit DK points in two of those four games. That said, with ownership projections of less than one percent on both sites, Beasley is an intriguing play in guaranteed prize pools.
WR – Terrance Williams
Williams has had fewer than 15 yards receiving in four straight games and has not had more than 25 receiving yards in six weeks. There are bigger and more important mouths to feed in Dallas.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten has missed just four of a possible 244 offensive snaps for the Cowboys over the past four weeks. He has the third-highest target share among Cowboys (16.51 percent) during that time. The Giants have struggled defending tight ends this season, ranking 27th in pass DVOA against the position and allowing a +6.38 Plus/Minus to TEs over the last five games. Witten rates highly in nearly all our Pro Models, including the Bales Model, where he is a top-five TE for both DK and FD.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
This year Manning has produced a +3.74 Plus/Minus and 20.92 DK points per game at home, compared to a -2.56 Plus/Minus with 14.62 DK points per game on the road. Those are some serious home/road splits:
At home, perhaps the good Eli will come out to play this weekend? The Cowboys are ranked 27th in pass DVOA and have allowed some enormous games to opposing QBs lately, giving up 21.62 DK points per game to QBs over the last five games. Eli is a volatile GPP option worth considering.
RB – Rashad Jennings
The Giants RB situation is uncertain. After averaging 17 carries per game and dominating touches for three straight weeks, Jennings was out-carried last week by Paul Perkins by a count of seven to six. The Cowboys are much better against the run (sixth in rush DVOA) than the pass, allowing only one RB — Le’Veon Bell — to score more than 14.4 FD points this season. With unpredictable and erratic usage, Jennings is suitable for play in large field GPPs only.
RB – Paul Perkins
At best, Perkins is in a timeshare with Jennings. At worst, he’s the backup. Either way, he’s not getting a lot of opportunity, and opportunity is everything for RBs. Maybe in the prime time slate Perkins could be used to differentiate a GPP lineup — but in the main slate he’s exceptionally risky.
RB – Shane Vereen
Vereen (triceps) has been activated off Injured Reserve and is expected to be active for Week 14. His role against the Cowboys is uncertain, as he hasn’t played since Week 3.
WR – Odell Beckham
Beckham has been targeted a gargantuan 55 times in his past five games. During that time he has averaged 21.3 DK points per game and scored less than 20.6 DK points on only one occasion. Over the past four weeks, the Cowboys have allowed a +7.75 Plus/Minus to WRs priced no lower than $6,000 DK. Beckham is currently the No. 1 DK WR and No. 2 FD WR in the Bales Model.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard has now scored in the past four games in which he has been targeted. Running most of his routes from the slot, Shepard will spend the majority of Sunday night locking horns with Cowboys slot CB Orlando Scandrick, whose 79.9 PFF coverage grade ranks 27th at the position. If you’re feeling antifragile or want to learn more about Bobby Fischer, stack Shepard with Eli and Beckham and hope for a Giants passing explosion.
WR – Victor Cruz
Salsa is best served with chips. Cruz went without a single target last week and now has been targeted just seven times in the past three games. Cruz was actually out-snapped by rookie Roger Lewis last week and is not a safe play at this point.
TE – Will Tye
Tye has been targeted an average of 4.75 times per game over the past four contests. During that time he has made more than two receptions and eclipsed 22 receiving yards only once. Tye has an 83 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where he is priced at the stone minimum — but Tye might be more cheap than inexpensive. In his favor is that the Cowboys are 30th in pass DVOA against TEs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
