The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Vikings at Jaguars
The Vikings are currently 3.5-point favorites for their Week 14 matchup against the Jaguars. Don’t expect a ton of scoring in this one, as the current Vegas total of 40 points is by far the lowest mark of the week. The Jaguars are currently implied to score 18.25 points and the Vikings are currently implied to score 21.75 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Bradford threw a season-high 45 passes last week but failed to surpass 250 passing yards. His 6.5 aDOT is more than a half a yard lower than Alex Smith‘s, which is just sad more than anything. Bradford has surpassed 20 DraftKings points once this season and shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option against a Jaguars defense that has allowed 3.5 DK points below salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months. Bradford is priced at $5,100 on DK and has a +0.86 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
Last week, McKinnon found the end zone for the first time since Week 4. He’s emerged as the team’s lead running back between the 20-yard lines, but the presence of Matt Asiata has capped McKinnon’s ceiling at around 15 touches. This amount of touches would be fine if McKinnon was doing anything with them. His averages of 0.54 fantasy points per opportunity and 3.4 yards per touch each rank outside of the top-70 among all RBs this season. Even at $3,600 on DK with a 96 percent Bargain Rating, McKinnon is a risky play with limited upside.
RB – Matt Asiata
Asiata has been more effective running the ball than McKinnon this season, but does it really matter when both RBs are averaging 3.3 yards or less per carry? Asiata has dominated goal-line work, at least, as he has 12 carries inside the opponent’s five-yard line compared to just two for McKinnon, per PFR. Still, his opportunities will be limited most weeks, as the Vikings rank among the bottom-10 teams in red-zone scoring attempts per game this season. Asiata is priced at $3,300 on DK with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and should be considered nothing more than a GPP punt play.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs was targeted at least 13 times from Week 8 to Week 10 but has averaged just 7.5 targets per game during the last two weeks. His upside is already limited due to his non-existent red-zone presence, as he’s been targeted just twice inside the 10-yard line this season. Diggs will be challenged this week by Jalen Ramsey, who has played an impressive 17 percent of his snaps in the slot this season despite often shadowing the opposition’s best wide receiver. Diggs is priced at $6,600 on FanDuel with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and will have to overcome a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs this season.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen’s nine targets last week were a season-high in games that Diggs also played in. Thielen has been consistently solid all season, but this hasn’t resulted in many big fantasy performances:
Thielen has averaged a strong +4.56 Plus/Minus on the season, but his salary has now risen by $900 this month and it will be tougher for him to surpass his salary-based expectation. He’s a risky play this week due to his volatile workload and likely matchup against Prince Amukamara, PFF’s 35th-highest graded cornerback this season. Thielen is priced at $4,700 on DK with a +2.32 Projected Plus/Minus and faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed 1.6 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson’s role in the offense has shrunk, as he’s been targeted a total of eight times during the Vikings’ last two games. He’s added a carry or two on the ground per game, but he’s simply not creating enough chunk plays to justify playing him with a limited workload. Overall, Patterson has averaged just 6.4 yards per target this season – the 122nd-highest mark among all WRs, per playerprofiler.com. He’s not a recommended fantasy option, as his -2.15 Projected Plus/Minus is the worst mark among all WRs priced over $3,500 on DK.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph was targeted a season-high 12 times last week, but he converted those into a disappointing 6-45-0 line. He hasn’t gained more than 70 yards in a game this season, but his usage is too high to ignore. Overall, Rudolph’s average of 7.5 targets per game ranks first among all tight ends this season. Unlike Diggs, those targets have included fantasy-friendly opportunities, as Rudolph’s 17 red-zone targets are tied for the second-most among all tight ends this season. He’s priced at $5,500 on FD with an 87 percent Bargain Rating, but he has a tough matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed 0.6 points below salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Despite the reality that Bortles isn’t a good quarterback, he’s been a pretty good fantasy quarterback since Week 8:
Per our Trends tool, Bortles has posted a +5.35 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and has averaged 20.58 DraftKings points during his last six games. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in every one of those games except for last week’s matchup against the Broncos. Unfortunately for Bortles, his bounce-back game may have to wait another week, as he’ll face a Vikings defense that ranks second in average fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. He’s minimum-priced on DraftKings with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has a 9.2-point projected floor.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Last week, Yeldon played in a featured role, although he’s had mixed results as the team’s lead back this season:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Yeldon has averaged 19 touches during his three games with Ivory sidelined this season, but it’s amounted to an average of just 13.3 PPR points per game. He’s struggled all season and will now face a Vikings defense that has done well against non-elite RBs this season. Only David Johnson, Jordan Howard, DeMarco Murray, and Ezekiel Elliott have surpassed 20 DK points against the Vikings this season, while everyone else has been held to 13.5 DK points or less. Yeldon is priced at $3,800 on DK with a +3.35 Projected Plus/Minus and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory (hamstring) is officially questionable for Week 14. He practiced on a limited basis all week and is expected to be a game-time decision.
Even if he’s ultimately able to suit up, there isn’t much reason to believe he’ll be able to produce against the Vikings. The first issue is Ivory himself, as his average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry ranks 52nd among all RBs this season, per PFF. Even if the Jaguars find their way into the red zone, Ivory will be tested by a front seven that has allowed just six rushing touchdowns this season – tied for the third-fewest in the league. He’s priced at $3,700 on DK with an 82 percent Bargain Rating and has a 2.1-point projected floor.
WR – Allen Robinson
Robinson has been dreadful over the past three weeks. He’s converted his 21 targets into an 8-73-1 line since Week 11 and will now have to deal with Xavier Rhodes, who has shut down some of the best wide receivers in the league this season. Rhodes held Odell Beckham Jr. to a 3-23-0 line earlier in the season and recently allowed zero catches to Kelvin Benjamin. Overall, quarterbacks are completing 46.2 percent of their passes in his direction and have a 35.2 quarterback rating against him, per PFF. Robinson is priced at $5,000 on DK with six Pro Trends and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurn (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 14 after missing last week with the same injury.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee has been targeted six-plus times in five straight games. Despite the nice volume, his 10.7 aDOT is the lowest mark among the team’s top-three WRs and this has resulted in minimal down-the-field opportunities for Lee. His upside takes an even bigger hit due to his likely matchup against Terence Newman, PFF’s eighth-highest graded cornerback this season. Lee is priced at $3,700 on DK and has a 2.6-point projected floor.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas (back) has been ruled out. In his place, Neal Sterling will continue to pretend to be a TE.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
