The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Bears at Lions
The Lions will host the Bears as 7.5-point favorites. The line has moved a good bit this week: The Lions opened as 9.5-point favorites. The Matt Barkley-led Bears aren’t expected to get much going on offense, as they’re currently implied to score a slate-low 18 points. The Lions are currently implied to score 25.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matt Barkley
Jay Cutler has been placed on the injured reserve list and his season is officially over. Barkley will be under center for the remainder of the season. He was unspectacular during the Bears’ Week 13 win over the 49ers, as he completed 11 of his 18 attempts for 192 yards and zero touchdowns. Still, the snowfall during the game limited the Bears offense and it was still encouraging to see Barkley continue to throw the ball down the field. Per PFF, his 10.6 aDOT over the past two weeks is tied for the eighth-highest mark among all quarterbacks. Barkley has a good matchup this week against a Lions defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass this season. He’s priced at $6,200 on FanDuel with a +2.91 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Jordan Howard
Last week, Howard became the latest running back to gash the 49ers defense, as he converted his 32 carries into 117 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been on an absolute tear over his past five games:
Per our Trends tool, Howard has posted a +8.52 Plus/Minus with 60 percent Consistency and has averaged 20.9 DraftKings points since Week 8. His success has largely come from his own ability to pick up yards after contact, as his average of 3.3 yards after contact per carry since Week 8 is the second-highest mark among all running backs with at least 50 carries over that span, per PFF. Howard is priced at $7,800 on FD with an 82 percent Bargain Rating, but he has a tough matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season, per fantasydata.com.
RB – Jeremy Langford
Langford has two touches over the past two weeks and won’t be a recommended fantasy option unless Howard is forced to miss some time.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Barkley threw only 18 passes last week due to the poor weather conditions, but Meredith managed to convert his four targets into a 3-67-0 line. With Alshon Jeffery out, the team hasn’t consistently relied on one featured wide receiver, so it’s tough to predict what Meredith’s role will be on a week-to-week basis. Still, he’s lined up in the slot on 41 percent of his snaps this season and will benefit from the absence of slot cornerback Quandre Diggs, who was placed on the IR earlier this week. Diggs will be replaced by newly-signed Asa Jackson, who has played just 18 games during his five-year career. Meredith is priced at $4,000 on DK with a +4.43 Projected Plus/Minus and has nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Marquess Wilson
Wilson strained his groin on one of the first plays of the game last week and was unable to continue. He’s officially questionable for Week 14 after limited practices on Thursday and Friday.
He’s historically played well when given a decent-sized role in the offense:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Wilson has averaged a 6.2-91.6-0.4 line during his five career games with more than five targets. He’s priced at $3,800 on DK with a +2.29 Projected Plus/Minus and has a 20.5-point projected ceiling. Of course, he’s a risky play because of his injury.
WR – Josh Bellamy
Bellamy was the best receiver on the field last week, as he converted his six targets into a 4-93-0 line. If Wilson is able to play, Bellamy could be pushed back into a smaller role as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver. Even if Bellamy ends up drawing the start, he could see a lot of Darius Slay, PFF’s fourth-highest graded cornerback this season. Bellamy is priced at $3,500 on DK and faces a Lions defense that has allowed 0.9 points below salary-based expectations to WRs over the past 12 months.
Bellamy (shoulder) is also dealing with his own injury issues. He had limited practices all week. He’s questionable but expected to play.
TE – Logan Paulsen
Paulsen was targeted just three times last week and there really isn’t any reason to expect that total to increase. Barkley has targeted his tight ends on 5.7 percent of his passes over the past 12 months – the third-lowest mark in the league. Even against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against tight ends, Paulsen is nothing more than a GPP dart throw at his minimum-priced salary.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford threw for 300 yards last week for the first time since Week 3. He’s the main reason why the Lions are leading the NFC North, but he hasn’t consistently racked up fantasy points this season, partially due to his reluctance to throw the ball down the field. Per PFF, Stafford’s 7.5 aDOT is tied for the third-lowest mark among all quarterbacks this season. He’ll look to overcome his lack of fantasy-friendly opportunities in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
Per our Trends tool, Stafford has averaged a +4.42 Plus/Minus with 68.8 percent Consistency and 21.46 DraftKings points during his 16 games as a home favorite over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $6,800 on DK with an 83 percent Bargain Rating, although he does face a Bears defense that has allowed 1.8 points below salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
RB – Theo Riddick
Last week was just the third time this season that Riddick did not lead the Lions in rush attempts. This is especially concerning moving forward because both Dwayne Washington and Zach Zenner received more carries than Riddick. Regardless of rush attempts, Riddick will always be the team’s receiving back, but he has a tough matchup this week against a Bears defense that has done a great job at limiting receiving backs this season:
Per our Trends tool, running backs that have averaged at least three receptions per game this season have posted a -1.70 Plus/Minus with 16.7 percent Consistency and have averaged just 5.3 DK points against the Bears this season. Riddick is priced at $6,300 on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating but faces a Bears defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest average fantasy points to running backs this season.
Riddick (wrist) is questionable but expected to play.
RB – Dwayne Washington and Zach Zenner
The whole ‘Riddick as a three-down RB’ experiment may be over. Last week, Washington and Zenner received seven and nine carries, respectively. Zenner has been the more effective back of the two, but both are averaging under 3.5 yards per carry this season. Neither back has any receiving upside and they aren’t recommended fantasy options this week.
WR – Golden Tate
Marvin Jones was surprisingly inactive last week, which set the stage for Tate’s best performance of the season. It continued a trend of Tate balling out when the Lions’ No. 1 outside receiver has been unable to play.
Per PFR, Tate has averaged an 8.0-123.5-0.75 line during his four games without either Calvin Johnson or Jones in the lineup over the past three seasons. Jones should currently be considered questionable for Sunday, but either way Tate will have a good matchup against a Bears secondary that doesn’t have a cornerback graded higher than 60th by PFF this season. He’s priced at $6,300 on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has five FD Pro Trends.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones (quad) was inactive last week and is officially questionable this week but expected to play.
His role in the offense has shrunk enough to make him a very risky play due to his chance at playing limited snaps. Overall, Jones has been targeted eight-plus times in a game just once since Week 3. He hasn’t managed to do much with the few targets he’s received, as his average of 0.23 fantasy points per opportunity is the 99th-highest mark among all WRs since Week 3. Jones is priced at $5,900 on FD with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and has a 2.8-point projected floor.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin was the team’s No. 2 WR for a dream matchup against the Saints last week, but he was targeted just six times and finished with a 4-40-0 line. He offers very little upside outside of the red zone due to his status as the team’s check-down receiver. Still, Boldin has excelled in the red zone this season, as his 11 red-zone receptions is tied for the second-highest mark among all WRs through 13 weeks. He does have a tough matchup this week against a Bears defense that has allowed touchdowns on just 51.28 percent of their opponent’s red-zone possessions – the eighth-best mark in the league, per teamrankings.com. Boldin is priced at $5,200 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron bounced back last week to an extent, converting his six targets into four receptions and 38 yards. He’s averaging over six targets per game on the season but hasn’t had very many fantasy-friendly opportunities. Ebron’s five red-zone targets this season rank fifth on the Lions and just 28th among all tight ends this season, per nflsavant.com. He’ll look to turn things around this week against a Bears defense that will still be without Jerrell Freeman, PFF’s second-highest graded linebacker in coverage this season. Ebron is priced at $3,800 on DK with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and leads all TEs with eight DK Pro Trends.
Ebron (knee) is questionable but expected to play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
