Tuesday brings a six-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
John Wall had eight points and seven assists in the first quarter last night and finished with 25 and 13 on the game in 35.8 minutes of play — a 51.8-point DraftKings outing. He remains cheaper on DK than FanDuel: His $8,700 DK salary comes with a position-high +5.45 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the clear stud of the PG cohort: Goran Dragic has the second-highest salary at $7,300 DK. Wall faces an Orlando defense that has turned a corner lately: The Magic have moved up to third in defensive efficiency on the season, allowing a stingy 100.8 points per 100 possessions. As a result, this game has a low Vegas total of 199 points, with the Wizards implied to score 101 points as three-point favorites. Wall is in cash-game territory on DK because of his low price, but he’s a tournament-only play on FD because of this matchup.
Value
Jerryd Bayless has been ruled out again for tonight’s matchup against the Grizzlies, so Sergio Rodriguez will start. Rodriguez currently leads all FD PGs in Projected Plus/Minus (+7.44), and his low $4,600 price tag comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, scoring at least 22 FD points in each contest. He’s been even better in the short term, going for 33 FD points in 30-plus minutes in each of his last two. He’s projected for 30.2 minutes against a Memphis team that is excellent defensively, allowing 101.0 points per 100 possessions. He’s a fine cash-game option on both sites, but he’s a potential fade in guaranteed prize pools given the 76ers’ slate-low 93-point implied total.
Leverage Play
Rajon Rondo returns from his one-game suspension tonight to face the Pistons. This is a difficult matchup to analyze, as Reggie Jackson returned to Detroit’s lineup last game but played only 22.9 minutes. Rondo will likely see a bit of Jackson as well as Ish Smith, and each is a mixed bag defensively: They both posted top-10 Defensive Real Plus/Minus marks back in 2013-14, but they haven’t been positive defenders since that time. Rondo struggled in his last game, scoring only 4.4 FD points in 23.9 minutes against his former team in the Mavericks. His Opponent Plus/Minus today isn’t much better — he has a -1.04 mark on FD — but he’s more than viable in GPPs given his low salary of $6,200. He’s behind only Rodriguez in Projected Plus/Minus (+5.52), and he leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The shooting guard position is brutal today. The four highest-priced FD options in Bradley Beal ($7,100), Dwyane Wade ($7,000), Zach LaVine ($6,000), and Devin Booker ($5,900) all have negative matchups against the Magic, Pistons, Spurs, and Jazz — teams with top-12 defenses. Beal has been the hottest of the group, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +9.95 Plus/Minus in that time frame. He has played huge minutes and is projected for 35.7 and a large 28.37 usage rate. Along with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, he’s projected to be the highest-owned SG at 21-25 percent, which is warranted: His projected floor of 20.6 FD points is nearly five points higher than any other SG’s mark.
Value
Speaking of Caldwell-Pope: He’s been excellent of late, also exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games and averaging a +8.47 FD Plus/Minus in that time frame. He’s racked up fantasy points in a variety of ways, posting games of at least four assists in three of his last four and grabbing at least seven rebounds in all those contests. He has a nice matchup against Chicago, which is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and allowed 112 points to the Trail Blazers last night. Of the five highest-priced SGs, KCP has the highest FD Opponent Plus/Minus at +0.66. He leads all FD SGs with 10 Pro Trends and is projected to outproduce his salary-implied expectation by 4.11 points.
Leverage Play
Troy Daniels is currently the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $4,200 salary comes with a +4.60 Projected Plus/Minus, five Pro Trends, and a position-high 95 percent Bargain Rating. The undrafted wing has been excellent in his last four games without the injured Mike Conley: He’s coming off games of 31.0 and 43.4 FD points against the Pelicans and Lakers. He played heavy minutes in those two (43.5 and 34.4) and he’s currently projected for 32.4 minutes and a 21.51 usage rate. He has one of the slate’s best matchups against a Philly team that ranks 25th on defense and allows a poor 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Additionally, the 76ers will be without their best wing defender in Robert Covington. Daniels should get plenty of time against Nik Stauskas, who is by far the worst SG defender in the league in DRPM.
Small Forward
Stud
Gordon Hayward has been one of the best daily fantasy assets in the league over the last eight games, exceeding salary-based expectations and scoring 33-plus FD points in each contest. He’s dominated the offense with George Hill out of the lineup: Per our NBA On/Off tool, with Hill out Hayward leads the team in usage rate (29.0 percent) and DK points (36.9) and has averaged a +2.6 Plus/Minus. Hayward has a dream matchup against a Phoenix team that plays at the fastest pace in the league (104.3 pace factor) and owns the 21st-ranked defense. Among all SFs, he trails only teammate Joe Johnson with his +3.55 FD Opponent Plus/Minus. Hayward is the premier cash-game option on FD, where his low $8,100 salary comes with a position-high +4.38 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating. That said, he’s projected for 41-plus percent ownership.
Value
Otto Porter has been nearly as impressive as Hayward lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +5.36 FD Plus/Minus during that time against a touch schedule, as he’s faced the Magic, Spurs (twice), and Thunder in his last six games. He’s facing Orlando again tonight: He had 19 points and seven rebounds in 33.6 minutes against the Magic last time. Like most of the Wizards starters, he’s projected for high minutes (35.6). He’s a better value on FD, where his $6,300 salary comes with a +4.38 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Outside of Hayward, Carmelo Anthony is the only SF among the high-ceiling GPP options with a positive FD Opponent Plus/Minus (+1.23). The Miami Heat own the 11th-ranked defense, allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions, but they’ve been mediocre against opposing SFs. Melo has lacked consistency lately:
In cash games there’s no reason to pivot down from Hayward to Melo, but in GPPs Melo is projected for much lower ownership (21-25 percent). He’s flashed a 60-plus point ceiling recently and is an elite leverage play off the chalky Hayward.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +6.20 Plus/Minus during that time. He’s gotten over 35 minutes in each of his last five games and is projected for 35.6 along with a high 25.35 usage rate. Porzingis is the highest-priced PF option ($7,600) on FD by $1,100, which says a lot about the PF position. That said, he’s been underpriced for quite a while and remains so today: He has a +3.07 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. The Heat have been tough against PFs this year, but Porzingis still has a +1.55 FD Opponent Plus/Minus because he’s played 39 percent of his minutes at center this year. Play him with confidence in all formats.
Value
Because of the mass injury/rest situation in Philly, all three of Richaun Holmes (+9.57), Dario Saric (+6.74), and Ersan Ilyasova (+8.84) lead the FD PF position in Projected Plus/Minus. Ilyasova is the most expensive at $4,600 and projected to play the most minutes at 35.4. Saric is cheaper at $4,100 and projected to have the highest usage rate at 24.65 percent. Holmes is a tough fade at the minimum $3,500, but he has an awful -5.27 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight against the Grizzlies. He’s listed as a PF in DFS, but he’s actually played 96 percent of his minutes at center this year, which means he should draw Marc Gasol, who has limited opposing centers to an awful -6.1 Plus/Minus over the past year. All three players are certainly viable in cash games, but Holmes might be the best fade candidate in GPPs given his matchup and projected ownership of 21-25 percent.
Leverage Play
Despite the high Projected Plus/Minus values of the three Philly PFs, Tobias Harris is actually the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $5,600 salary comes with a +5.75 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He struggled last game against the Magic, but he posted four straight games of 30-plus FD points prior to that outing. He’s projected for 35.1 minutes and a 20.83 usage rate against the Bulls, who currently rank 14th defensively, allowing 102.8 points per 100 possessions on the year. Priced between Porzingis and the 76ers value guys, he could be overlooked in GPPs.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside is clearly the stud of this slate: He’s the No. 1 C in the Phan Model for FD, where his $9,100 price tag comes with a +5.89 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He has the best matchup in the slate against the Knicks, who own the league’s fourth-worst defense, allowing a miserable 107.1 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been particularly awful against centers — Whiteside has a position-high +4.76 Opponent Plus/Minus — and they rank second-worst in the league with a 73.7 percent defensive rebound rate. Whiteside has 20-20 upside.
Value
Since receiving a bump to 30-plus minutes five games ago, Bismack Biyombo has exceeded salary-based expectations in each game. He’s projected to play 32.8 minutes and he’s only $4,300 on FD, where he boasts a +5.56 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. His matchup isn’t as good as Whiteside’s, but it’s still excellent: Washington ranks 19th defensively, and Biyombo has a +3.14 Opponent Plus/Minus. Biyombo is perhaps the biggest reason the Magic have surged to third in defensive efficiency, and Magic head coach Frank Vogel is likely to continue to give him heavy minutes.
Leverage Play
While Biyombo is playable on DK at $4,700, his frontcourt teammate in Nikola Vucevic is actually the highest-rated center in the Phan Model for DK, where his $6,100 salary comes with a position-high +4.65 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been awesome off the bench for the Magic lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games by an average of +8.94 DK Plus/Minus. He’s projected for only 27.9 minutes, but he has a high 26.93 usage rate off the bench and has easily hit value lately with abbreviated minutes. He’s fourth among centers — behind the three high-priced guys — in fantasy points per minute (1.22). He’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership on DK and makes for an excellent pivot play in tournaments.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
