Monday brings an 11-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook is $12,600 on FanDuel. Per our NBA Trends tool, there are only 13 instances of a player being at least $12,600 FD in our database. All 13 were Westbrook. While Westbrook is expensive, we should judge him as his own, unique daily fantasy entity. Despite his high salaries, he’s been crushing lately:
Westbrook has exceeded value (per our Plus/Minus metric) in each of his last nine games by an average of 11.26 FD points. He’s facing the league’s second-best defense today — the Hawks allow a stingy 100.5 points per 100 possessions — but we’re still projecting him to exceed value by a position-high 6.12 FD points. Note that the Hawks’ weakest defensive spot is at point guard: Westbrook has a nice +4.02 Opponent Plus/Minus. He hasn’t been below 50 FD points in 10 games.
Value
Other than Westbrook, the players with the two highest FD Projected Plus/Minus values are Jerian Grant (+6.67) and Sergio Rodriguez (+5.84). Grant will start for Rajon Rondo, who has been suspended by the Bulls for tonight’s game. Grant is risky at $3,500, as he put up only 8.7 FD points in 25.5 minutes last game. That said, his best game this season came against today’s opponent, the Blazers, against whom he scored 34.6 FD points in 30.5 minutes. The Blazers have the worst defense in the league, allowing a miserable 109.6 points per 100 possessions. Sergio’s also likely to be popular tonight, as he faces a Denver team that has been the worst in the league at defending PGs: He has a position-high +6.22 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s dished out at least seven assists in his last four games and is projected for 27.9 minutes and a 19.82 usage rate.
Leverage Play
Many DFS players will pay down for Grant, Rodriguez, or Dennis Schroder, which makes John Wall intriguing in tournaments at only nine to 12 percent projected ownership on DraftKings, where he’s only $8,900 and comes with a +4.05 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and an excellent +3.10 Opponent Plus/Minus. He faces the Nets, who own the second-worst defense in the league, allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions. Further, they play at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game, which is a big reason for Washington’s slate-high implied Vegas team total of 112.5 points. In a normal slate, Wall would be an excellent cash-game option. In this slate, he’ll go underowned.
Shooting Guard
Stud
With Rondo out, Dwyane Wade is expected to see a bump in usage rate: He’s projected for 34.3 minutes along with a high 28.5 usage. He’s very cheap on DK, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Projected Plus/Minus of +4.85, nine Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. Like Grant, he’s facing a Portland team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency. The Trail Blazers could be a bit better moving forward if Al-Farouq Aminu returns, but they’ve been a below-average defensive team even with him. Wade has scored at least 32 DK points in each of his last five games, and he leads all SGs $7,000 or under in projected DK ceiling at 50.4 points.
Value
Will Barton is the cash-game option of the slate: Since returning to the lineup, he’s posted back-to-back 34-plus DK outings, and he’s only $5,100 DK and $5,200 FD tonight. He had his best game of the season last game, scoring 34 FD points on a brutal road back-to-back against the Utah Jazz. He’s played 33 minutes in each of the last two games and he’s projected for 33.7 minutes and a 20.89 usage rate. He’s facing a Philadelphia team that ranks 24th on defense, allowing a poor 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Barton leads all SGs in Projected Plus/Minus on both DK (+5.35) and FD (+5.81).
Leverage Play
Bradley Beal is $7,000 DK — $500 more than Wade. As a result, we’re projecting Beal for lower ownership, even though he’s projected to play 35.7 minutes against an awful Nets team. He struggled last game on the road against the Spurs, scoring only 24.5 DK points in 30.4 minutes. However, today’s matchup is much easier: He has a position-high +2.95 DK Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s using a high number of possessions this season, and he’s currently projected for a high 28.04 usage rate. Prior to the Spurs game, he posted three straight games of 42-plus DK outings, scoring 31, 31, and 25 real points in that time. He could have a bounceback game at reduced ownership.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is too cheap on FD, where his $9,400 price tag comes with a +6.37 Projected Plus/Minus, slate-high 14 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been playing huge minutes lately — he’s been above 40 in two of his last four — and he’s projected for 37.7 minutes and a high 28.51 usage rate. The Cavs face the Raptors, one of their strongest opponents in the Eastern Conference. They last played each other on 11/15, and the game popped off: The Cavs won 121-117, and LeBron went for 28 points and 14 assists. This game has a high 216 total today, and the Cavs are implied for 108.5 points — the slate’s fourth-highest mark. LeBron is an elite FD play in all contest formats.
Value
Jae Crowder has been a cash-game option for a while, and he is again today: His (still) low $5,200 FD price tag comes with a +4.21 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. With all of that and his solid +2.25 Opponent Plus/Minus, and it’s no wonder that he’s currently the No. 1 FD SF in the Phan Model. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six games, and he’s played 30-plus minutes in each of his last four. He’s projected for 34.5 minutes and offers a lot of safety at his price. He’s projected for nine to 12 percent ownership in FD tournaments.
Leverage Play
Jimmy Butler is an elite play on DK, where his $8,500 price tag comes with a +4.05 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. Bulls teammates Grant and Wade have already been highlighted, but it’s hard to fade guys against an awful Portland defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions. Butler has flashed his impressive ceiling lately, putting up 54-plus DK points in three of his last six games. He’s projected for a whopping 39.7 minutes and a 25.57 usage rate: He should dominate the offense along with Wade in Rondo’s absence. Per our Matchups tool, much of the game he’ll face Portland wing Moe Harkless, who has a poor -0.7 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year.
Power Forward
Stud
Because of the other elite options like Westbrook, it may not make sense to pay up for Anthony Davis. That said, his projected FD ceiling of 74.6 points is 22.3 points higher than that of Kevin Love, who has the position’s second-highest salary. Brow is coming off a huge game in which he dropped 67 FD points against a top-10 Thunder defense. He’s projected for 39.9 minutes and a sky-high 32.12 usage rate — but he’s always risky given his injury history. Brow might be suited more for cash than tournaments, although he’s projected for 36-40 percent ownership on FD. He’s more reasonable on DK, where his $11,000 price tag comes with a +5.05 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
JaMychal Green certainly isn’t a household name, but he’s been excellent as a DFS asset lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging an +8.18 FD Plus/Minus in that time frame. He dropped 39.1 FD points last game in 34.2 minutes against the Lakers, and he’s projected for 31.4 minutes against a Pelicans team that is the league’s third-worst rebounding unit. Green leads all PFs with a +5.59 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where his low $5,000 price tag also comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. The Pelicans average a whopping 5.2 more possessions per game than the Grizzlies: The enhanced pace should make Green’s 31.4 minutes worth more than they normally are.
Leverage Play
Another Bulls player. The PF position is tough on both sites, and Taj Gibson has an elite matchup at only $5,600 DK and $5,900 FD. The Blazers are (again) the worst defensive team in the league, and they’re also terrible rebounding the ball, with the sixth-worst rebound rate at 48.3 percent. Taj struggled last game against the slow-paced Mavericks, but he dropped 44.7 FD points against the Cavaliers in the game prior, and he double-doubled in his first meeting with the Blazers this year. He’s projected for 32.5 minutes, which should allow him to approach double-double territory again.
Center
Stud
At this rate, Joel Embiid will no longer be an FD value around April. He’s moved up to $6,400 today, which means that he has a Projected Plus/Minus of ‘only’ +9.84 — easily the highest mark of any player at any position. He’s dropped 40-plus FD points in each of his last two games against solid defenses in the Magic and Cavaliers, and his currently salary gives him an implied total of 25.96 points, which seems attainable. He faces a Denver team that plays at the fifth-fastest pace and has struggled defending centers: Embiid has a +1.55 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s a chalky cash-game play yet again.
Value
On DK, Marcin Gortat is only $5,900 and has a humongous +6.14 Opponent Plus/Minus. He dropped 55 DK points last game against the Spurs thanks to 21 points, 18 rebounds, two steals, and two blocks. He faces a Brooklyn team that ranks second-worst in rebound rate, and he should be able to dominate the boards against Brook Lopez. Gortat is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on DK, largely because Embiid is still a value there. Gortat flashed an impressive ceiling last game, which he could certainly reach again in his 34.6 projected minutes.
Leverage Play
Speaking of high ceilings: Al Horford dropped 58 DK points two games ago against the Sacramento Kings. He struggled last game against the 76ers, but he has an opportunity to bounce back against a Houston team that currently ranks 27th defensively, allowing 107.2 points per 100 possessions. Horford remains underpriced on DK, where his $6,700 salary comes with a +3.85 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for only nine to 12 percent DK ownership, which is quite a bit lower than Embiid’s. This game could shoot out, as it has the second-highest over/under at 218 points.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
