The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of Sunday morning. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt, Last 12 Months: 7.73, Russell Wilson
It looked as if Wilson was back to his second-half ways, exceeding salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric) in three straight games, but in Week 12 Wilson put up only 12 FanDuel points on a 17-151-0 line with two interceptions. He’ll look to rebound in Week 13 against the Panthers, who rank a respectable 15th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) but also have a funnel defense that flows toward the passing game. This slate has a talented QB group: We have three QBs with elite ceilings in Wilson, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck. That should keep ownership down for each of them, although Wilson and Luck will likely be the highest-owned QBs because of their matchups. Wilson leads this tandem in just about every advanced metric, as well as completion rate and fantasy points per snap in the last month. Last week was possibly just a blip.
Projected Ceiling (FD): 27.6, Andrew Luck
Luck has by far the worst FD Opponent Plus/Minus at -3.90 despite playing an awful secondary: The Jets rank 29th in pass DVOA. However, if we look at the actual performances using our NFL Trends tool, we can see why Luck has such a poor mark this weekend:
While the Jets passing defense hasn’t been great, it’s held its own against the worst QBs it’s played: Kevin Hogan, Case Keenum, and the ‘elite’ Joe Flacco. Against good QBs, the Jets have allowed solid games. After missing the Thanksgiving game against the Steelers, Luck will look to keep things rolling: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games played. Like the Panthers, the Jets certainly funnel production toward the pass: They rank third in rush DVOA. This game could be close — the Colts are only one-point favorites currently — and Luck will likely have to throw the ball often for the Colts to win. He has the highest-projected ceiling on both DraftKings and FD among the four QBs.
Running Back
Rushing Market Share, Last Four Games: 67.31 percent, Matt Forte
While the QB group is strong, the RB cohort leaves a lot to be desired. Forte stands out, as he’ll face a Colts defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and 31st in rush DVOA. Of this group, Forte is the only RB to own 65 percent or more of his team’s rushes over the past four games (per the Market Share Report):
Forte will be highly owned, especially on FD, where his $6,900 salary comes with a +3.95 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a +0.8 Opponent Plus/Minus — all position-high marks.
Projected Ceiling (DK): 26.1, Jonathan Stewart
Stewart and Forte actually have the same ceiling projection (26.1 points), although Stewart’s median projection (11.1) is much lower than Forte’s. Given that Stewart has a tough matchup against the Seahawks while Forte faces the awful Colts defense, Stewart should see much lower ownership. He had a big game last week, scoring 21.6 DK points on a 17-96-2 line. Stewart actually got a whopping eight rushes in the red zone during that game — five inside the 10-yard line — compared to just one for Newton. With that type of red-zone work, along with his increased two-week rushing market share (66.7 and 68.0 percent), Stewart definitely has the potential to put up a big game, even against the Seahawks.
Wide Receiver
Projected Plus/Minus (FD): +4.35, Quincy Enunwa
In last week’s WR Breakdown, I looked at every receiver’s four-week target share and found which players were the most underpriced in that regard. Enunwa definitely stood out and does again this week: He has owned 20.63 percent of the Jets’ targets over the last four games and is still priced at only $4,700 FD. He’s coming off a big game against the Patriots in which he scored 19.4 FD points on a 5-109-1 line. He’s even cheaper now, and he’s facing the Colts, who have the third-worst pass DVOA in the league. He has the slate’s worst QB throwing the ball to him in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s hard to fade his volume and production at $4,700. He’ll likely be very chalky.
Yards Per Reception, Last Year: 16.0, TY Hilton
Speaking of chalky WRs: Luck’s No. 1 WR is going against the league’s fourth-worst pass defense in the Jets. Per our NFL Matchups tool, he will face Jets CB Buster Skrine, who is Pro Football Focus’ 87th-ranked corner with a poor 52.0 coverage grade. Via our NFL News feed: Hilton has posted a +6.61 Plus/Minus with 57.1 percent Consistency and has averaged 21.76 DK points during his seven games on the road with an implied team total over 24. Hilton leads all WRs in yards per reception over the past year (16.0), and he also boasts a position-high ceiling of 25.4 FD points.
Tight End
Opponent Plus/Minus (FD): +4.3, Jimmy Graham
The best TE in the slate has the best matchup: He’ll likely be chalky. The Panthers have been terrible against TEs in the last year, allowing 4.3 FD points above salary-based expectations to TEs — and no other slate TE has a positive Opponent Plus/Minus. Graham has been consistent, exceeding salary-based expectations over his last 10 games with a +3.87 FD Plus/Minus. He’s seen 19.51 percent of the Seahawks’ targets over the past four games and has three touchdowns in that time frame. He’s the highest-rated TE in the Bales Model for FD, where he has a +3.54 Projected Plus/Minus, a slate-high 11 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Target Share, Last Month: 20.77 percent, Greg Olsen
Compared to Graham, Olsen actually owns a higher percentage of his team’s targets over the last four games (20.77 percent). He’s missed value in four of his last five games, but the volume has been there: He’s gotten at least five targets in each of his last four. Seattle’s defense is great against both the run and the pass, but it’s mediocre against TEs, ranking 18th in pass DVOA against the position. Olsen’s ownership should be lower than Graham’s, as he’s only $200 FD cheaper yet has a far inferior matchup. That said, he leads all TEs with a +4.56 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where he boasts the position’s top median projection (11.7 points) and a 92 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
