Friday brings a nine-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
There’s quite a bit of value among PGs today, which makes paying up interesting in GPPs. Of the high-priced guys, John Wall and Kyle Lowry stand out, especially given their price points of only $8,400 and $8,100 on DK. Of the two, Lowry has the better matchup against a Lakers team that currently ranks third-worst in the league on defense, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. Wall faces the tough Spurs defense, although it is important to note that their weak spot is at point guard versus Tony Parker: Wall has a solid +1.05 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight. Both are more valuable on DK and have Bargain Ratings of 86 and 90 percent. Of PGs in this slate, they’re projected for the most minutes tonight at 37.5 and 36.6; they’re very safe options if choosing to pay up.
Value
Rajon Rondo is easily the highest-rated PG in the FD Phan Model tonight, and it’s because he’s just way too cheap still at only $5,900. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, scoring at least 30 FD points in each contest. Tonight he has a really nice matchup against a Cleveland defense that has struggled against PGs this year: Rondo has a high +3.55 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD. He leads all PGs on that site with a +5.94 Projected Plus/Minus, although that also comes with a position-high 26-30 percent projected ownership. He’s been very consistent lately and is an easy cash-game option on FD, where he comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Another guy that could’ve been in the ‘Value’ section is Sergio Rodriguez, who will start and play close to 30 minutes for the 76ers tonight with Jerryd Bayless ruled out. This matchup isn’t ideal — he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of only -0.08 on FD and the Magic are up to sixth on defense this year, allowing a stingy 101.4 points per 100 possessions — but it’s hard to ignore the savings Sergio provides on DK. He’s only $4,500 there and comes with a +4.45 Projected Plus/Minus — tops among all PGs — and is projected for 5.5 points per $1,000 salary. He should be chalky — he’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership on DK — but he warrants it: He’s scored 28.3 and 29.0 DK points in his last two games against tough defenses. He needs only 20.15 DK points to hit value.
Shooting Guard
Stud
I’m going to mention James Harden here, but I’ll be clear right away: I much prefer Harden in tournaments than cash games. He’s coming off a game last night in which he played 45.8 minutes in double overtime against the elite Warriors — he had 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 13 assists, if that shows you just how involved he was in those heavy minutes — and now has to travel to high altitude tonight to play against the Nuggets. It’s about the worst situation possible for a DFS player. And it’s a shame, too: Harden has an elite matchup, as shown by his slate-high +7.39 Opponent Plus/Minus mark on FD. This is a terrifying spot to fade Harden — which is why you should still have tournament exposure to him — but there is definite downside here at $11,900 DK and $11,500 FD.
Value
Jordan Clarkson has been crushing value lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games by an average of 5.42 FD points. Tonight he has an interesting matchup against a Toronto team that has been poor on defense this year — they rank 22nd in the league, allowing 106.0 points per 100 possessions — but stingy against SGs. I’ve given my hypothesis on this before: DeMar DeRozan is such a force on offense that opposing SGs tend to underperform given the defensive duties required for that game. And if that’s the case, then Clarkson should be fine: DeRozan will likely be guarded by some combination of Brandon Ingram, Luol Deng, and Lou Williams. We’re projecting Clarkson to come off the bench, so even if they do oppose each other, it could be for limited minutes. Clarkson is definitely in cash-game territory on FD, where he has a position-high +5.09 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Norman Powell has definitely struggled this year: He’s been at 12.5 FD points or below in each of his last five games. Even in the games he’s started, he’s performed poorly. That said, those games were against the Clippers, Cavs, and Knicks. Against the non-elite defense (Knicks), he put up 30.0 FD points in 29.1 minutes of action. If DeMarre Carroll is ruled out tonight, Powell will get the start again against a Lakers defense that ranks third-worst in the league this season. This is a significant pace-up game for Toronto, as the Lakers average 4.7 more possessions on the year. Powell will likely start opposite Luol Deng, who has allowed opposing players to score 1.1 DK points above salary-based expectations in the past year. At only $3,200 DK and $3,500 FD, Powell is definitely worth some exposure in tournaments.
Small Forward
Stud
Of the high-priced SF options, Jimmy Butler has the best combination of price ($8,800 FD), projected floor (26.6 points), and matchup (+1.38 Opponent Plus/Minus). He’s been excellent lately, hitting salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games by an average of 8.52 FD points. Butler has been playing a ton of minutes lately — he topped 40 last game against the Lakers — and is projected for a position-high 38.7 minutes and a solid 25.8 usage rate tonight. He boasts a Projected Plus/Minus of +4.41 on FD, where he comes with 12 Pro Trends. He’s a fine second SF if paying up at the position.
Value
The elite SF option tonight is Jae Crowder, who is easily the highest-rated SF in the FD Phan Model. He has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last four games, scoring 30-plus FD points in each of his last three. He finally got up to high minutes last game, playing 35.9 against the Pistons, and is projected for 33.5 and a 19.12 usage rate tonight. He easily leads all SFs with a +6.87 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where his low $5,300 salary comes with eight Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s an easy cash-game play in this slate.
Leverage Play
Andrew Wiggins is an elite GPP play: In his last 10 games, he’s been below 20 FD points in four games but above 50 FD points twice. He’s incredibly volatile and has a nice projected ceiling tonight of 42.1 points against a Knicks team that currently is third-worst in the league defensively this year, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. He’s way too cheap on FD, where his $6,000 salary comes with eight Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. The Wolves’ starters have been playing huge minutes lately: Wiggins is currently projected for 38.7 minutes tonight and a high 27.48 usage rate. At those marks, he’s almost in cash-game territory even with his extreme volatility. He’s projected to be owned in 13-16 percent of lineups.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is incredibly expensive at $11,700 DK and $12,300 FD, but his massive 77.6-point projected ceiling on FD is hard to ignore, especially if you fade Harden given his tough back-to-back spot. A 77.6-point ceiling might seem ridiculous, but Brow dropped 75.7 points on the Lakers just last game, thanks to 41 real points, 16 rebounds, three assists, four steals, and two blocks. The dude is a monster and is projected for a silly-high 40.9 minutes tonight along with a 31.54 usage rate. This matchup isn’t ideal: He’s facing the Clippers, who boast the second-best defense in the league this season, allowing a stingy 98.9 points per 100 possessions. That said, Brow has dominated just about every team he’s come across this year. If you can fit him in, he’s viable in all contest formats.
Value
Kristaps Porzingis has been a pretty easy cash-game play for a couple weeks now, and he remains one today. He’s the highest-rated PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $7,900 salary comes with a +5.06 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games by a whopping 9.48 FD points per game. He dropped 47.6 FD points Wednesday against these very Wolves, and hasn’t been below 30 FD points in 10 games. This is an average matchup today — he has a +0.86 Opponent Plus/Minus mark — although we know that Kristaps is a matchup nightmare for any defender. The Knicks are currently two-point favorites implied for 105.75 points at home.
Leverage Play
Gorgui Dieng missed value for the first time in 10 games on Wednesday, scoring only 20.6 FD points in 32.6 minutes of action. That said, it’s hard to blame Dieng for that: Karl-Anthony Towns dropped 75.6 FD points thanks to 47 real points and 18 rebounds. KAT got hot early and they rightfully kept giving him the ball. Outside of that random game, Dieng has been crushing lately, exceeding value on FD by an average of 5.21 points over his last 10. He’s projected for 33.1 minutes tonight and will face a Knicks team that ranks third-worst on defense and second-worst in defensive rebound rate. At only nine to 12 percent projected ownership on FD, Dieng and his low $6,000 salary are definitely interesting in tournaments.
Center
Stud
As mentioned above, Karl-Anthony Towns just destroyed the Knicks on Wednesday, dropping 75.6 FD points in 41.5 minutes of action. The Knicks have one of the worst frontcourts in the league, and guys like Kyle O’Quinn have almost no chance of stopping the sophomore stud. KAT likely won’t dominate in that fashion again, but he’s still an elite play on DK, where his $8,900 price tag comes with a +4.45 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He has one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus marks in the slate at +3.31 and could certainly put up a dominating performance again. The Wolves are currently two-point dogs implied for 103.75 points.
Value
Like several guys already mentioned, Joel Embiid is a chalky cash-game play. His minute cap has been raised to 28 minutes and he’s projected for right at that mark tonight along with his typically-high 35.35 usage rate. Embiid is the highest-rated center in both the DK and FD Phan Models; his $6,700 and $6,200 price tags come with Projected Plus/Minus marks of +5.95 and +9.02. On FanDuel, he’s projected for 5.5 fantasy points per $1,000 salary and comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. This is a tough matchup: The Magic have been excellent of late on defense and now rank sixth in the league, allowing 101.4 points per 100 possessions. That said, Embiid has played well in any and all matchups this year, and his price tags are way too low to recommend fading in cash.
Leverage Play
Speaking of huge games, DeMarcus Cousins dropped 72.5 DK points in his last game against the Wizards thanks to 36 real points and 20 rebounds. He’s had plenty of time to rest given the Philly condensation issue — he hasn’t played since 11/28 — and will get a Boston team that ranks 20th defensively this year, allowing 105.4 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been a bit better lately with Al Horford back, but neither Horford nor Amir Johnson have the size to hang with Boogie. He’s the most expensive option at $10,700 DK and $10,900 FD, but he’s still expected to exceed salary-based expectations by 4.85 DK and 6.09 FD points. He’s an elite GPP play tonight, especially if most users go heavy on Embiid and KAT.
Good luck!
News Updates
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