The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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49ers at Bears
This game features two of the worst teams in football. The 49ers travel to Chicago as one-point favorites, although neither team is projected to put up a lot of points. This matchup has a Vegas total of only 43.5 points. The 49ers are implied for 22.25 points; the Bears, 21.25.
San Francisco 49ers
QB – Colin Kaepernick
Say what you want about Kaep’s real-life QB play, but as a DFS asset he’s been excellent in his six starts this year:
In the last two weeks, Kaep has thrown for five touchdowns and only one interception. Last week against a Dolphins team that currently ranks eighth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), he put up 34.1 FD points thanks to a 29-296-3 line in the air and 113 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Because of his rushing ability, Kaep actually boasts the second-highest floor projection on FD at 12.1 points. Week 13 brings a great matchup, as the Bears rank 20th against the pass and 21st against the run in DVOA. He’s an excellent cash-game play given his rushing safety, especially at only $6,100 on DK, where he comes with a +3.92 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and an 83 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Carlos Hyde
Hyde is an interesting study: His fantasy point totals have been slightly down since Kaepernick took over as QB, yet Hyde’s efficiency as a runner has gone up. Really, the biggest difference between pre-Kaep Hyde and the current version has been his ability to get into the end zone. He’s gotten the opportunities. Per the Market Share Report:
You could make the argument that given the increased efficiency — Hyde has averaged 5.0 and 4.5 yards per carry the past two games — and opportunities close to the goal line, Hyde could be due for some positive touchdown reversion. Hyde did have 20.5 DK points last week against the Dolphins, although that was largely thanks to his 5-30-1 line in the air. Hyde is definitely in play in guaranteed prize pools at $5,300 DK and $6,700 FD, but note that he also comes with high projected ownership of 17-20 and 13-16 percent.
RB – Shaun Draughn and DuJuan Harris
Draughn did see six targets last week, but their combined 15 touches over the past two weeks doesn’t inspire much confidence in Week 13, especially since the 49ers are actually slight favorites in this game.
WR – Torrey Smith
The 49ers’ top-three receivers have combined for exactly two double-digit FD outings in the last five games. That’s horrible. Smith had his best game in a while last week, outperforming his salary by 5.15 points, but that equated to only 9.9 FD points on a 3-24-1 line. The leading receiver in terms of targets last week for the 49ers was actually tight end Vance McDonald. Per our Matchups tool, Smith is likely to run most of his routes against Bears cornerback Bryce Callahan, who has a poor 68.0 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, but none of these WRs is getting enough volume to be intriguing outside of large-field GPPs.
WR – Quinton Patton
In Weeks 9 and 10, Patton led the 49ers with 23.08 and 30.00 percent of the team’s targets. Since then he’s seen a dip in both targets and snaps: He has led the team in offensive snaps among skill players for most of the year but received only 26 last week and has been passed by McDonald as the team leader in the last month. He’s priced at the minimum on FD at $4,500, but he also comes with a low 13.2-point ceiling and scary 0.8-point floor.
Patton (concussion) is questionable. He practiced this week but still hasn’t passed the league’s protocol.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
Kerley was a thing in DFS at one point this season — he actually led the entire NFL in target market share back at the beginning of the season — but in the last two weeks he has caught only two of his 10 targets for 24 yards and zero touchdowns. He owns only 15.97 percent of the team’s targets over the past four games and is an extremely speculative DFS option this week, even against PFF’s 69th-graded CB in Cre’von LeBlanc.
TE – Vance McDonald
McDonald definitely isn’t a sexy play in Week 13, but it’s hard to discount his recent production:
As mentioned above, McDonald led the team in target share last week at 17.78 percent and actually leads the team with 18.06 percent of the targets over the past four games. He’s hit value in each of his last four, catching at least three balls and getting into the end zone twice in that span. The Bears are pretty terrible against TEs: McDonald has a +1.5 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Bears rank a poor 24th against TEs in pass DVOA. No one is getting excited about rostering McDonald, but he’s a fine punt play at $2,900 DK and $4,900 FD. However, note that he has a pretty limited ceiling for GPPs.
Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matt Barkley
Start Jay Cutler (shoulder) is reportedly undergoing a season-ending surgery. Don’t be surprised if we learn later that head coach John Fox is the surgeon who put the knife in Cutler’s back.
Let the Barkley era in Chicago officially begin.
Barkley threw for 316 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in his first career start last week against the Titans. It could’ve been an even bigger performance if the Bears receives hadn’t drop upwards of 10 passes. Fox didn’t let Cutler throw the ball more than 31 times in a game this season, then he promptly allowed Barkley to throw the rock 54 times.
At the same time, this high volume has skewed Barkley’s performance, as he ranked just 20th among all QBs last week in fantasy points per dropback. Additionally, the performance came against a Titans defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs this season. The good news for Barkley is that the 49ers defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. Barkley’s minimum priced on DK with a +3.29 Projected Plus/Minus and a zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. The 49ers defense has allowed opposing QBs to average 4.6 DK points above salary-based expectations over the past 16 games.
RB – Jordan Howard
Howard has continued to work as the team’s lead RB back even with the return of Jeremy Langford. This has been in large part due to Howard’s ability to pick up yards after contact, as his average of 3.3 yards after contact ranks sixth among all RBs this season, per PFF. This week he’ll take on a 49ers defense that has been gashed by RBs this season:
As our Trends tool shows, RBs priced over $5,000 DK have posted a +5.36 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and averaged 21.27 DK points against the 49ers this season. Howard is priced at $7,400 FD and has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and a +6.99 Projected Plus/Minus — the fourth-highest mark among all RBs.
RB – Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey
Make no mistake about it: This backfield belongs to Howard. Langford and Carey combined for just three touches last week and won’t be fantasy options unless Howard is forced to miss some time.
WR – Marquess Wilson
Wilson was the breakout star of Week 12, as he converted his 11 targets into an 8-125-1 line. He’s performed well throughout his career when given a featured role in the offense. Per RotoViz:
In five career games with more than five targets, Wilson has averaged a 6.2-91.6-0.4 line. Even more encouraging than his workload is where he was targeted last week. Wilson’s 16.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT) was the fourth-highest mark among all WRs with eight-plus targets last week. He’s priced at $4,000 DK with a +3.63 Projected Plus/Minus and five to eight percent projected ownership. Wilson will likely see a lot of Tramaine Brock — PFF’s 21st-highest graded CB.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Meredith has struggled to get much of anything going this season outside of two big games with Brian Hoyer and one fantastic 50-yard touchdown on a Hail Mary from Cutty:
Without Hoyer under center, Meredith has averaged more than five fewer PPR points across four games. He’s not guaranteed to be Barkley’s featured receiver, as four different Bears receivers were targeted at least nine times last week. Meredith is priced at $4,100 DK with a +2.3 Projected Plus/Minus and a 2.5-point projected floor.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal (toe) has been dealing with an injury for several months and played just 12 snaps last week. He’s officially questionable and very well might not play. He’s not a recommended fantasy option, as the Bears will likely focus their attention on young receivers Deonte Thompson and Josh Bellamy. Royal might not even play this week.
TE – Daniel Brown
Brown turned his four targets into a 3-24-1 line last week. He’s 6’5″ and 225 pounds, making him more of a WR than a TE. Brown is a risky play this week due to his lack of a defined role in the offense, but he offers athletic upside that most TEs don’t have. Still, the 49ers haven’t been bad against TEs this season, as they rank in the top-half of the league in pass DVOA against the position. Brown is minimum priced on DK and has a 0.3-point floor projection.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
