The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Colts at Jets
The Colts will travel to New York as two-point favorites for their Week 13 matchup against the Jets. It could be a high-scoring game, as the Jets are currently implied to score 23.5 points and the Colts are currently implied to score 25.5 points. Be sure to monitor the weather for Monday night, as current forecasts indicate sub-45 degree temperatures with a 25 percent chance of rain. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck is currently still in the concussion protocol but has practiced all week and is expected to be good to go for Monday night. He’ll look to rebound from his historical struggles against the Jets. Luck has played the Jets only twice in his career, but he’s averaged 265 passing yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 2.5 interceptions in those games. Still, he should have an easier time this Monday night against one of the worst Jets pass defenses in years, as they are the third-worst defense in the league in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass through 12 weeks. Be sure to monitor the rain in New York City, as Luck – like most quarterbacks – has struggled to produce in the rain during his career:
As our Trends tool shows, Luck has posted a -2.64 Plus/Minus with zero percent Consistency and has averaged just 17.45 DraftKings points during his three games with a precipitation probability over 20 percent over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $8,100 on FanDuel with a 78 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Jets defense that has allowed 3.9 points below salary-based expectations to QBs over the past 12 months.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore gained just 28 yards on his 15 carries last week, but he’s always struggled without Luck under center:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Gore has averaged nearly three fewer PPR points during his 10 games with Luck sidelined over the past two seasons. Still, he’s barely managed to average more than four yards per carry with Luck under center and lately Gore hasn’t even been able to reach that threshold. He’s averaged fewer than 3.6 yards per carry in four of his last five games and will now face a Jets defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run. Exposure to Gore should be focused on FD, where his $6,200 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends.
RB – Robert Turbin
Turbin hasn’t had more than five touches in a game since Week 6 and shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option this week.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Hilton injured his lower back last week, but he returned to full practice on Friday and is expected to be good to go for Monday night. He hasn’t been targeted more than nine times since Donte Moncrief returned to the lineup, but Hilton has still averaged 8.5 targets during his two full games with Moncrief over the past month. Hilton has historically struggled away from Lucas Oil Stadium, but he’s actually played pretty well in road games with a similar implied total:
As our Trends tool shows, Hilton has posted a +6.61 Plus/Minus with 57.1 percent Consistency and has averaged 21.76 DK points during his seven games on the road with an implied team score over 24 points over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $7,600 on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and will face a Jets defense that may be without Marcus Williams, PFF’s 49th-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Donte Moncrief
All Moncrief does is score touchdowns. He’s found the end zone in five of his six games this season, although he’s yet to surpass 65 receiving yards in a game. Still, his success in the red zone has been borderline ridiculous through 12 weeks. Moncrief is tied for second among all wide receivers with five touchdowns inside the 10-yard line – and he’s done it on just five targets. He’s priced at $6,700 on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and will face a Jets defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards or scored a touchdown since Week 4. Considering he’s been targeted on just 8.8 percent of his snaps this season – the 92nd-highest mark among all wide receivers – he’s not a recommended fantasy option this week even at $3,200 on DK.
TE – Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen
The return of Allen has been bad news for Doyle, as he’s been targeted a total of four times during his last two games. Allen hasn’t fared much better, as he’s received just eight targets over his past two games. The Jets have a top-10 defense in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed 0.5 points below salary-based expectations to the position over the past 12 months. Allen is the better option on DK this week, where his $2,600 price tag comes with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and a +2.33 Projected Plus/Minus.
New York Jets
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
We know how volatile Fitzpatrick is by now, but we also know at least he is confident in his abilities. That’s something: See Blake Bortles. On paper, this matchup couldn’t be much better: The Colts rank 30th in pass DVOA. Still, Fitzpatrick is far from a ‘Monday Night Hammer’ in GPPs if playing this slate: He has a low 22.6-point projected ceiling on FD.
RB – Matt Forte
Forte put up a dud last week against the Patriots, but his goal-line equity is still intriguing in GPPs:
The problem with Forte is that he needs large volume at this point of his career to be effective and Bilal Powell nearly out-snapped him last week 49 to 54. That said, Forte could be in a prime bounce-back spot at home considering the Colts rank 31st in run DVOA, per Football Outsiders. However, there’s definitely risk here because of his volume; as we know, opportunity is everything for running backs.
RB – Bilal Powell
Yes, he did nearly match Forte’s snap count in Week 12, but he had just nine touches in this game and has averaged just 9.25 over his past four games. The efficiency has been there, but it doesn’t mean much to us for fantasy purposes given his low volume.
WR – Brandon Marshall
On paper, Marshall’s production this year has not matched up to his target share and red-zone involvement — ninth and second in the NFL, respectively, on the season. At some point those numbers should regress toward the mean and Marshall could be in for a big game. Expected to be shadowed by Vontae Davis, Marshall has the 13th-most advantageous matchup this week, per Pro Football Focus. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Marshall’s big game finally happened and he’s not on the main slate? Not really, but he is the highest-rated WR in our Cash Model and has the fifth-highest FD floor.
Of course, Marshall (knee, foot) hasn’t practiced this week, and head coach Todd Bowles has said indicated that Marshall’s status is up in the air. Monitor this situation via the FantasyLabs News feed.
WR – Quincy Enunwa
Some really sharp people were on Enunwa in Week 12, including our own Jonathan Bales, who had him in his DraftKings Championship qualifying lineup. It’s not a horrible spot to go back to him, as his salary is still very reasonable on both DK and FD. Averaging 6.5 targets per game over his last four, Enunwa has the third-highest FD Projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is the fourth-highest rated player in our Tournament Model on FD.
WR – Robby Anderson
After receiving six targets three weeks in a row, Anderson got only two in Week 12 versus the Patriots. He’s a very risky play in all formats given his low 1.5-point FD projected floor.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
We don’t have a TE from the Jets listed in our Models and that was not by accident. Look elsewhere at TE. Of course, the Colts are dead last in the league in pass DVOA against TEs. If there were ever a week for a Jets TE to do something, it would be this week.
Still, look elsewhere.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
