The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Texans at Packers
The Packers are currently seven-point favorites for their Week 13 matchup against the Texans. Aaron Rodgers and company are currently implied to score 26.25 points, while the Brock Osweiler-led (for now) Texans are currently implied to score 19.25 points. Be sure to monitor the weather for this one, as current forecasts indicate sub-40 degree temperatures with a mix of rain and snow. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday afternoon.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler has continued to struggle in recent weeks, and it’s not crazy to think that backup Tom Savage could step in at quarterback if Osweiler can’t turn things around. He’s thrown four touchdowns versus five interceptions during his last five games and has a season-long -1.93 Plus/Minus. Sure, the Packers secondary is banged up, but they’ve still allowed fewer than 300 passing yards in seven of their last eight games. You could make a case that Osweiler and his zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership could be a potential contrarian GPP play, but as Matthew Freedman once said: Contrarianism isn’t a license to be a f*cking moron.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller’s reduced workload has become a thing of the past. He’s received 22-plus touches in consecutive weeks after not surpassing 20 touches since Week 6. Still, his upside will continue to be limited by his struggle to replicate his great tackle-breaking ability from last season. Per playerprofiler.com, Miller had a 24.0 percent juke rate during the 2015 season, but this has dropped to just 15.5 percent this season. He could have a hard time getting back on track against a Packers defense that is ranked seventh in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Miller is priced at $5,600 on DK with a +1.65 Projected Plus/Minus and his 5.5-point projected floor is the third-lowest mark among all RBs priced over $5,500 on DK.
RB – Akeem Hunt
Hunt has shown flashes of talent this season but has totaled just seven touches over the past two weeks. He shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option unless Miller is forced to miss game time.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Nuk has been targeted 10-plus times in four of his last six games, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 5 and his efficiency has been brutal all season. Overall, his averages of 1.28 fantasy points and 5.8 yards per target each rank outside of the top-90 among all wide receivers through 12 weeks. The Packers secondary is banged up, but Hopkins is expected to see a lot of LaDarius Gunter, who has been the team’s best cover cornerback this season. Overall, PFF has graded Gunter as the 49th-best cornerback in coverage through 12 weeks. Nuk is priced at $6,700 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller’s 4-60-0 line last week was his best game since Week 4. He looked healthier than he had in weeks, although it was disappointing to see him be targeted only six times. Fuller hasn’t corralled a long touchdown since the beginning of the season, but it hasn’t been for lack of trying. Per PFF, his 17.6 aDOT is the fifth-highest mark among all WRs through 12 weeks. It’s hard to trust both Fuller’s hands (five drops this season) and Osweiler’s arm (ranks 34th in deep-ball percentage), but, if there were ever a week for them to connect, it might as well be this one:
Fuller has run nearly 50 percent of his routes as the offense’s right wide receiver and will look to exploit the deep right area of the field, where the Packers have allowed five touchdowns and a 126 quarterback rating this season, per sharpfootballstats.com. He’s priced at $5,600 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Braxton Miller
Miller actually played eight more snaps than Fuller last week, but Fuller doubled Miller’s targets. He’s shown growth this season and may have a future as a slot receiver, but he’s yet to surpass 25 receiving yards in a game and has just one touchdown through 12 weeks. Miller shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option this week even with his minimum-priced salary across the industry.
TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz
The good news: Osweiler has targeted his tight ends on 21.1 percent of his passes over the past 12 months – the third-highest mark among all quarterbacks. The bad news: Backup TE Ryan Griffin has been targeted five times in consecutive weeks. Fiedorowicz does have way more red-zone targets than Griffin, but it’s hard to get behind Fiedorowicz at $3,800 on DK when his 1.7-point projected floor is among the lowest marks for all non-minimum priced TEs on DK. He also has a tough matchup against Morgan Burnett, PFF’s 10th-highest graded safety this season.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has been as hot as any quarterback in the league lately, as he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight games and has surpassed 300 passing yards in three straight games. He’ll look to keep rolling this week in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
As our Trends tool shows, Rodgers has posted a +4.70 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and has averaged 24.42 DraftKings points during his 15 games as a home favorite of six-plus points over the past three seasons. He’ll be challenged by a Texans defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest average fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, but Rodgers should have plenty of fantasy-friendly chances to rack up fantasy points. Overall, he’s ranked in the top-10 in both red-zone and deep-ball (passes of 20-plus yards) attempts this season. Rodgers is priced at $6,700 on DK with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has a +4.02 Projected Plus/Minus.
Rodgers (hamstring) has been dealing with a slight injury this week, but he did practice and is expected to play through this questionable tag.
RB – James Starks
Starks hasn’t managed to correct his brutal start to the season, and he’s now averaging just 2.5 yards per carry through 12 weeks. His role in the passing game has been steady, as he’s received five receptions in consecutive games. Still, he has a tough matchup this week against a Texans defense that has seemingly overcome their issues against the run and have held their opponents to less than 85 rushing yards in four straight games. Starks is priced at $5,800 on DK with eight Pro Trends but will have to find a way past Jadeveon Clowney, PFF’s eighth-best edge defender against the run this season.
RB – Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael
Michael’s debut in Green Bay resulted in four yards on one carry, while Montgomery hasn’t reached double-digit touches since Week 9. Neither are recommended fantasy options until their roles increase or other players are forced to miss time.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson has arguably been the most consistent wide receiver in the league this season. He’s been limited to single-digit DK points just once in 11 games and has been the league’s most-featured WR in the red zone through 12 weeks. Overall, Nelson leads all WRs in targets, receptions, and touchdowns inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He runs 50 percent of his routes from the right side of the formation, so he’ll likely see a lot of Johnathan Joseph, PFF’s 63rd-highest graded cornerback this season. Nelson is priced at $7,400 on FD with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and has nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb’s role has diminished over the past four weeks, as Davante Adams has been used as the Packers’ No. 2 WR. Overall, Cobb has averaged just 5.5 targets over his past four games compared to 7.5 for Adams. The results haven’t been pretty for Cobb:
As our Trends tool shows, Cobb has posted a -3.70 Plus/Minus with zero percent Consistency and has averaged 9.5 DK points over the past four weeks. He’s priced at $6,300 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Texans defense that has allowed 0.8 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams’ days of being one of the most inefficient receivers in football are over. On Monday night, he converted his six targets into a 5-113-2 line and has emerged as the team’s go-to deep threat at receiver. Adams’ aDOT of 15.9 yards is more than 2.5 yards higher than Nelson’s and over 10 yards higher than Cobb’s. Adams will be challenged this week by A.J. Bouye, PFF’s second-best cornerback in the league this season. He’s priced at $6,800 on FD with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has a 19.4-point projected ceiling.
TE – Jared Cook
Two weeks ago, Cook converted his 11 targets into a 6-105-1 line and seemed to be the vertical threat at tight end that Rodgers has been lacking since Jermichael Finley retired. Last week, Cook was targeted just twice and gained seven yards. Richard Rodgers has played 21-plus snaps in consecutive weeks, further limiting Cook’s upside. This week, Cook is priced at $4,700 on FD with an 81 percent Bargain Rating and has a 1.1-point projected floor.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
