The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 13: Running Backs
Mary Lou Barebone: Are you a seeker? A seeker after truth?
Newt Scamander: I’m more of a chaser, really.
RB Pricing
As I’ve highlighted previously in the RB Breakdown, RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
The average Bargain Rating for the five DK RBs with the highest salaries is literally one percent. To borrow imprecisely from almost any Aaron Sorkin show, “Talk about getting screwed with your pants on.”
On FD, there are only five RBs who have Bargain Ratings lower than 40 percent.
The pricing disparity between the two sites is ridiculous, and it’s getting even harder to find DK values: Six weeks ago, LeGarrette Blount had a 90 percent Bargain Rating; this week, 10 percent.
You can still find some comparative value on DK, but it’s not all that easy.
The Big Nine Five
This could’ve been The Big Nine, but I honestly think that The Big Five would be much more enjoyable. At least that’s what I’ve been assured.
This week, the five RBs with the most expensive salaries in the slate are unsurprisingly also the guys with the most points per game (PPG) on the season. The Big Five (in terms of pricing) is a formidable bunch. Per our Trends tool:
Note the higher Plus/Minus and Consistency on FD as well as the lower ownership. That’s not a coincidence. Remember that RBs right now are generally cheaper on FD than DK, and we see it in the Big Five’s production.
You know who these brosephs are:
• David Johnson: $9,500 DK (RB1), $9,200 FD (RB2)
• Le’Veon Bell: $9,200 DK (RB2), $9,300 FD (RB1)
• Ezekiel Elliott: $8,200 DK (RB3), $8,700 FD (RB3)
• LeSean McCoy: $7,800 DK (RB4), $8,400 FD (RB4)
• Melvin Gordon: $7,200 DK (RB5), $8,000 FD (RB5)
Let’s lay down some tracks.
The Big Johnson
Johnson is easily the current RB1 in PPG . . .
. . . but he’s priced as the RB2 on FD, where he has an obscenely-high Consistency Rating and is currently the highest-rated RB in the Bales Model.
It’s hard to imagine a better spot for Johnson. The Cardinals are 2.5-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 26 points, and they’re facing the Redskins, who have a RB-friendly funnel defense that is dead last against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
It’s pretty hard to overstate just how dominant Johnson has been this season. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Johnson has 85.33 percent of the Cardinals’ rush attempts in their last four games and 21.84 percent of their targets. And there’s this:
It’s not just that Johnson has more opportunities inside the 10-yard line than all the other Cardinals put together. It’s that he even has more targets inside the 10 than No. 1 wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Of course, that makes sense: We’re talking about a guy who has 26 career touchdowns in 27 games, even though he’s started only 16 contests.
Per Player Profiler, Johnson leads the league with 7.3 evaded tackles per game, which isn’t surprising given that he leads the league in scrimmage yards and TDs.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, guest Eric Crain (winner of this year’s Week 8 DK Millionaire Maker) said that he expects Johnson to be a chalky play. We concur. He currently has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26-30 and 31-40 percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
One more note: We’ve recently tweaked the way in which we determine floor and ceiling projections. (Check out FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ explanatory video on our floor and ceiling projections for more details.) I bring this up because it has direct bearing on Johnson. Notice that, although Bell has the highest median projection on both sites, it’s Johnson who has the highest ceiling projection. If you’re looking for fire, here be a dragon.
His Le’Veownership Will Be High
Do you like TDs?
After going scoreless in his first five games, Le’Vepwn has four TDs in his last three games. Of course, for the first three years of his career, Bell averaged one TD for every 189.4 scrimmage yards. Through eight games this season, he’s averaging one TD for every 284 yards. The TD pendulum could very well still be swinging in his direction. Over his last four games, he’s gotten the opportunities . . .
. . . and there’s no reason to think that he won’t continue to get touches near the goal line.
One problem is that Bell doesn’t have a great matchup, as the Giants defense is eighth in rush DVOA and holding opposing RBs to 21.8 DK and 19.1 FD PPG. Plus, Le’Veon hasn’t been especially great when facing rush defenses comparable to that of the Giants. Per RotoViz:
Additionally, it’s perhaps a little problematic that, as a favorite, he hasn’t really been better at home than on the road . . .
. . . since it’s possible that a number of people will roster him in part because the Steelers are favored by six points at home. We’re expecting him to be chalky: Like Johnson, Bell has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26-30 and 31-40 percent on DK and FD. In pricing and ownership, Bell and Johnson represent a clear top tier of two at the position.
But even though Bell isn’t a perfect play, he’s still a very good one. Per Player Profiler, he leads all RBs with a 92.9 percent opportunity share. He leads the slate with nine DK and 13 FD Pro Trends and is the highest-rated DK and FD RB in the Sports Geek Model.
Are You a Geek for Zeke?
I love Helen of Troy, but . . .
. . . Zeke is playing on Thursday night, and he’s facing the Vikings, who are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs: 21.3 DK and 18.1 FD PPG. Additionally, the Cowboys are implied to score only 23.5 points as three-point road favorites.
What Zeke does have going for him is that the Vikings have something of a funnel defense — they are fourth in pass DVOA and 16th in rush DVOA — and they’ve been exploited this season by RBs who are comparable to Zeke:
If Johnson, DeMarco Murray, and Jordan Howard can pile up the points against the Vikings, Zeke certainly can as well. Leading the league with 109.0 rushing yards and 22.1 rushing attempts, Zeke has enormous upside. I mean, he’s the workhorse runner for the only team in the NFL that runs more than it throws.
He’s the highest-rated FD RB in the CSURAM88 Model.
The primary issue with Zeke is that, as a Thursday play, he’s likely to be very popular with people who choose to pivot away from Johnson and Bell in order to save salary.
May I Have Your Attention Please?
When McCoy isn’t sabotaging us with hamstring and thumb injuries, he’s doing pretty well:
In this eight-game sample, McCoy has been a total workhorse, averaging 21.9 opportunities per game.
The Bills are three-point road underdogs implied to score only 22.5 points against the Raiders. None of that is good, and McCoy hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he’s been at home . . .
. . . but McCoy is at least still rocking 100 percent Consistency on the road, and the Raiders are 27th in rush DVOA.
McCoy has scored multiple TDs in three games this season. He’s not the worst . . .
. . . and don’t act like you haven’t missed that GIF.
Whatever
Even if you (read: I) think that MG3 is a near-talentless hack who feasts on the soft carbs of massive volume, you still have to appreciate him for what he is:
MG3 is second in the NFL with 21.3 rush attempts per game, and he has 50 targets in 11 games. Even though he’s scored only one TD in his last four games, he’s still averaging one TD per game on the season. With 12 opportunities inside the 10-yard line and a league-high 89.72 percent of his team’s rushes over the last four games, MG3 has the chance to pile up some points.
The Chargers are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Buccaneers, whose funnel defense is 10th in pass DVOA and 20th in rush DVOA. As a home favorite this year, MG3 has balled out:
Like McCoy, MG3 is a potential pivot play down from Johnson and Bell. He’s the f*cking Catalina Wine Mixer: Overhyped and something of a disaster yet still somehow good.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Mark Ingram ($6,000 DK, $7,000 FD) and Tim Hightower ($4,800 DK, $6,300 FD): It’s annoying as f*ck that these two are in a timeshare — Ingram has 122 snaps over the last four weeks to Hightower’s 119 — but whatever. This is the situation we’re in, and both of these guys have the potential to go off in this game . . .
. . . even Hightower:
The Saints are six-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points against the Lions, who defensively are 28th in rush DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA against RBs.
Ingram and Hightower have combined for six TDs over the last four games.
Ingram (toe) didn’t practice on Wednesday. Monitor his status via the FantasyLabs News feed. If Ingram doesn’t play, expect Hightower to be chalkier than the sidewalk outside of a Parisian café.
P.S. #Coors
Theo Riddick ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD): Speaking of the Coors Field of daily fantasy sports . . .
The Saints are allowing 26.9 DK and 23.8 FD PPG to RBs, and they are 32nd in pass DVOA against the position.
Meanwhile, the Lions are six-point underdogs implied to score 23.75 points in a game with a slate-high 53.5-point over/under. How does Riddick do when the Lions are dogs?
Pretty f*cking good.
Excuse me.
Pretty f*cking well.
On DK especially we’re projecting Riddick to be chalky: 21-25 percent ownership. Expect a lot of Matthew Stafford-Riddick stacks.
Matt Forte ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD) and Bilal Powell ($4,600 DK, $5,400 FD): The Jets are implied to score 24.5 points at home in a pick’em against the Colts, who are 31st in rush DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA against RBs.
I really don’t want to write anything else about these RBs.
Doug Martin ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD): It’s likely that change-of-pace jitterbug Jacquizz Rodgers (foot) will return to action this week after hurting himself a month ago while pretending to be a lead back — but even with Rodgers getting some snaps Martin should get his touches.
Since returning from injury three weeks ago, Martin has gotten lots of opportunities:
There’s no reason for Martin not to get opportunities this week. The Buccaneers are only 3.5-point road underdogs against the Chargers, who are allowing RBs to average 28.4 DK and 24.4 FD PPG — the third- and fourth-highest marks in the NFL.
Latavius Murray ($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD): The Raiders are three-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Bills, who defensively are 25th in rush DVOA. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Latavius has scored six TDs and been a steady producer:
In his three home games this season, Latavius is averaging 24.87 DK and 22.20 FD PPG. He’s projected for under five percent ownership.
Jonathan Stewart ($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD): The Panthers are seven-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.75 points against the Seahawks, who are second in rush DVOA.
Nevertheless, this year lead RBs have actually done well against the Seahawks in Seattle:
J-Stew is projected to have zero to one percent ownership.
Carlos Hyde ($5,300 DK, $6,700 FD): On the one hand, the Bears have what Levitanimal describes as the least-talented roster in Week 13. Plus, Hyde is cheap.
On the other hand, Hyde has been immensely mediocre with QB Colin Kaepernick as the starter:
That’s a lot of risk for a guy we’re projecting to be owned 17-20 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD.
Rob Kelley ($4,700 DK, $6,100 FD): Fat Rob has done admirably as the Redskins’ lead back, earning 75 percent of the team’s rush attempts over the last four games:
It’s hard to turn your nose up at this kind of production . . .
. . . especially when it’s cheap.
That said, this probably isn’t the week to binge eat. The Redskins are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score 23.5 points against the Cardinals, who are holding RBs to only 18.0 DK and 15.8 FD PPG — the lowest and second-lowest marks in the league.
Kelley is projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Sometimes contrarianism isn’t contrarianism.
Rashad Jennings ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD): He’s not sexy, but he is averaging 14.4 rushes and 3.5 targets per game and is yet to have fewer than 13 opportunities in any game played. The Giants are six-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.5 points against the Steelers. That’s not great, but the Steelers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs: 28.2 DK and 24.0 FD PPG.
Jennings has a 50 percent Consistency Rating since returning from injury in Week 6.
A bite from that apple might not kill you.
That doesn’t feel quite right, does it?
There we go.
Frank Gore ($4,900 DK, $6,200 FD): On the one hand, Gore has overperformed this year when he’s been away from Indy:
On the other hand, the Colts are on the road playing against the Jets, who are third in rush DVOA and doing well against lead RBs in New York:
What do we say to the god of death?
#NailedIt
James Starks ($4,400 DK, $5,800 FD): The Packers are seven-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Texans, who are allowing 25.0 DK and 21.9 FD PPG to RBs. Technically, Starks is a RB.
Devontae Booker ($5,100 DK, $6,400 FD): It’s nice for Booker that he has owned 68.75 percent of his team’s carries over the last four games, and it’s also nice that the Broncos are four-point favorites over the Jaguars.
But it’s not great that the Broncos are implied to score only 22.25 points and are playing in Jacksonville, where visiting lead RBs haven’t had much success:
Do you really need more of a reason not to play Booker?
LeGarrette Blount ($5,500 DK, $6,600 FD), James White ($4,000 DK, $5,100 FD), and Dion Lewis ($3,800 DK, $5,000 FD): The Patriots are slate-high 13.5-point home favorites implied to score 29.5 points against the Rams, who theoretically aren’t horrible against the run — they’re 10th in rush DVOA — but in actuality aren’t good versus RBs, especially when facing home RBs who get at least 10 carries against them:
Blount leads the NFL in rushing TDs, and White and Lewis have combined for 27 targets in the last two games.
Also, apparently Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead will figure prominently. Rams ‘head coach’ Jeff Fisher has been impressed by them this year.
Points shall be scored — which, I think, was the working title for There Will Be Blood.
Todd Gurley ($5,000 DK, $6,800 FD): The Rams are massive road underdogs implied to score only 16 points against the Patriots, who are fourth in rush DVOA, but, sure, go ahead, roster Gurley.
Sometimes that which is cheap is too expensive.
P.S. She has more yards per carry than Gurley.
The Super Models
This week, we (currently) have three non-Johnson/Bell/Zeke RBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Jordan Howard: $6,900 DK, $7,400 FD
• Terrance West: $3,800 DK, $5,900 FD
• Matt Asiata: $3,500 DK, $5,700 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
It’s Pretty Simple
The Bears are one-point home favorites implied to score 22.25 points against the 49ers, who are allowing league-high marks of 34.1 DK and 29.6 FD PPG to RBs.
This is the type of contest that begs for the running game, and Howard has gotten 79.17 percent of the Bears’ carries and 11.89 percent of their targets over the last four games:
The 49ers are allowing RBs to accrue league-high marks of 150.1 yards and 1.27 TDs rushing per game.
Howard is currently the highest-rated DK and FD RB in the Levitan Model.
Remember . . .
It’s not easy to find value on DK. West has an 87 percent DK Bargain Rating, a pulse, and the starting spot on a Ravens team favored by three points at home. It’s not easy to find a discounted lead RB who’s a home favorite.
And West hasn’t been horrible since becoming the team’s lead RB in Week 4:
It’s true that Kenneth Dixon ($3,700 DK, $5,100 FD) is emerging — he has 31.48 percent of the team’s carries over the last four games — but West doesn’t seem likely to destroy your lineups if you use him as a cheap option in cash games.
West is the highest-rated DK RB in the CSURAM88 Model.
I Reiterate . . .
It’s not easy to find value on DK. Asiata has a slate-high 90 percent Bargain Rating, a huge body made for falling into the end zone, and a locked-in role as the goal-line RB for a defense-oriented team with a sh*tty QB.
Asiata has only 32.56 percent of the Vikings’ carries over the last four games, but the carries he does get . . .
. . . tend to count for something.
If you want to play in some Thursday GPPs, Asiata could probably give you some multi-TD upside while also providing unique lineups. After all, who would roster this guy?
Speaking of which . . . he’s the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales Model.
The Coda
He’s had a tough go of it recently, in part because his offensive line has melted away into the air like Voldemort’s skin after his final curse rebounds, like so . . .
. . . but Jay Ajayi ($6,700 DK, $7,500 FD) is still a guy with GPP-winning, multi-TD upside every week. Since becoming the lead RB in Week 5, Ajayi in the aggregate has been a stud:
His potential absolutely must be respected, regardless of his matchup.
Now then, let’s take a look at whom the Dolphins are playing . . .
. . . never mind.
Kill the spare.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
