The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Panthers at Seahawks
The Sunday night contest pits two of the league’s most exciting teams against each other. The Panthers travel to Seattle for what Vegas projects to be a defensive struggle with a 45-point over/under. The Seahawks are seven-point home favorites implied to score 26 points; the Panthers, just 19 points.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
Over his past five games, Newton has thrown just five passing touchdowns while averaging only 17.2 FanDuel points per game. Newton’s rushing upside — 30-plus rushing yards in five of ten games — provides a solid floor, but there’s reason to be apprehensive in rostering Newton in cash games this week. Seattle has allowed only four opposing QBs to surpass 17 FD points this season. In our Player Models, Newton has the third-highest QB floor projection (12.0 FD points), but 13 different quarterbacks have higher median projections than Newton.
RB – Jonathan Stewart
The offensive line will likely be an issue for Carolina. The Panthers recently lost left tackle Michael Oher and center Ryan Kalil to injured reserve and could be without right tackle Daryl Williams this week. Stewart is coming off a performance in which he had a season-high 96 rushing yards, but he will be in for some tough sledding against Seattle’s defense, which ranks second against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA). Stewart’s done a decent job of making defenders miss this season, forcing a missed tackle on every 0.18 rush attempt (per Pro Football Focus) — that falls right in line with David Johnson (0.18) and Le’Veon Bell (0.17) — but unfortunately not even his missed tackle rate makes him more than a low-upside GPP play. He has just four receptions on the season and is a glorified TD-or-bust player.
RB – Fozzy Whittaker
Whittaker had six opportunities last week but managed just 1.5 fantasy points. It was his most action since Week 5.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
After a strong start to the season, Benjamin has averaged just 11.1 DraftKings points per game over his last nine outings and is struggling to meet expectations:
Life may not get easier this weekend. Per our Matchups tool, cornerback Richard Sherman is likely to be on Benjamin for most of the game. Sherman’s notoriety and skills have opposing QBs targeting him on just 14 percent of his routes covered, one of the lowest rates in the league.
At the same time, Benjamin has played against Seattle twice in his career — both games were in his rookie year — and he went 4-94-0 and 7-75-2. The matchup may not be great at first glance, but Benjamin has five DK Pro Trends and an ownership projection of just zero to one percent.
WR – Ted Ginn Jr.
Ginn has at least five receptions and/or a touchdown in six straight games, averaging 13.4 DK points over that time. He has the third-highest Upside Rating among all wide receivers, and last week he displayed his potential with an 88-yard TD. Ginn runs the majority of his routes from the right side of the field and is likely to line up against DeShawn Shead for most his snaps. Shead (and Sherman) both rank inside Pro Football Focus’ top-35 CBs. He’s a boom-or-bust GPP play who has a tough matchup.
WR – Philly Brown
Brown hasn’t had a reception in two straight weeks and has cleared double-digit fantasy points only once this season.
WR – Devin Funchess
After a promising seven-target game against the Saints in Week 11, Funchess had a two-target ‘performance’ last week. I would say that he holds inconsistency, but it has slipped through his fingers like a dropped pass.
TE – Greg Olsen
Tight ends have found success against the middle of this Seattle defense, such as Martellus Bennett (7-102-0) and Zach Ertz (6-35-1) over the past few weeks. Seattle ranks 18th in pass DVOA against against TEs and has struggled recently at covering the position.
Olsen is averaging 8.2 targets per game, and he leads all TEs with 790 receiving yards. He has a 92 percent Bargain Rating on FD and an ownership projection of five to eight percent. In his last two games against Seattle, he’s scored a TD.
Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
After returning to his 2015 form for three straight weeks, Wilson struggled in Week 12, scoring only 12 FD points on 17-of-33 passing, 151 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. However, that came against a Bucs defense that is top-1o in pass DVOA. This week, he gets a Panthers funnel defense that is 15th in pass DVOA and fifth in rush DVOA. With the Seahawks’ volatile running game, Wilson will likely have to throw the ball or run it himself to win this game. He’s rushed 16 times over the past two games, which drastically increases his floor. Wilson comes with only five to eight percent ownership.
RB – Thomas Rawls
If you had said in June that Rawls was the starter in Week 13, no one would bat an eye. The journey to get here, however, has been unexpected. He’s been the lead back the last two weeks with C.J. Prosise injured, although he’s struggled to do produce. He put up only 3.8 FD points on 12 carries and one target last week, posting a miserable 3.2 yards per carry. That’s a little concerning, given that the Bucs are just 20th in rush DVOA. That doesn’t bode well for this week’s matchup against the Panthers’ stout run defense. As it is, Rawls has a poor -1.0 Opponent Plus/Minus. He is discounted at $6,600 on FD, where he comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating, but this matchup definitely warrants GPP-only exposure — and even that should be limited.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Baldwin has an absolutely elite matchup this week: He’ll run in the slot as usual and will face Panthers slot CB Leonard Johnson, who is PFF’s 115th-ranked CB (out of 120 eligible CBs). Johnson has an awful 39.9 coverage grade. Baldwin should easily be able to win this matchup. He leads the Seahawks with 21.95 percent of the team’s targets over the past four games (per the Market Share Report) and has gotten at least six targets in five of his last six games. He’s currently the highest-rated WR in the Bales Model FD, where his nice $6,900 salary comes with a +2.75 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 96 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for nine to 12 percent ownership there and is a nice play in all contests formats in Week 13.
WR – Tyler Lockett
Lockett continues to disappoint in his sophomore campaign: He caught zero of his six targets last week against the Bucs. He’s hit double-digit FD points in only one game this year and owns a low 13.82 percent of the team’s targets over the past four weeks. He also draws a tough matchup this week against outside corner James Bradberry, who is PFF’s 31st-ranked corner with a 79.2 coverage grade. Lockett is projected for only zero to one percent ownership for a reason.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Kearse has been just as bad as Lockett this year: He hasn’t hit double-digit FD points in any game this season and had only one catch for 18 yards last week. He owns a larger percentage of the targets — he’s at 17.89 percent in the last four games — but he hasn’t shown that he’s capable of doing anything with his volume. Even at the $3,000 DK minimum, he’s a risky play: He has a low 0.7-point projected floor.
TE – Jimmy Graham
Graham is an elite play, as he’s facing a Panthers defense that ranks 20th in pass DVOA against TEs and has allowed an awful +4.6 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to the position over the past year. Unlike the WRs mentioned above, Graham has been very solid lately: He’s put up 11.7 and 13.6 DK points in his last two games on a combined 12 targets. He owns 19.51 percent of the team’s targets over the last four games, although he doesn’t have a target inside the 10-yard line over the same time frame. Graham is in play in all contest formats on both sites, but he’s especially intriguing on FD, where his $6,400 salary comes with a +3.64 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the highest-rated FD TE in the Bales Model.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
