Sunday brings a six-game main slate starting at 6pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard ($8,900 DK, $9,500 FD) and Chris Paul ($8,600 DK, $9,100 FD) are easily the two highest-priced PGs in the slate; Jrue Holiday has the third-highest FD salary at $7,400. Both players have higher ratings in our DK Pro Models because of their lower prices there: They have DK Bargain Ratings of 90 and 86 percent, respectively. Their projections are nearly identical, but CP3 is cheaper and he has the superior matchup: He faces an Indiana team that has allowed a +1.4 DK Plus/Minus to opposing PGs this season. Also, CP3 is projected to have lower ownership at 17-20 percent on FD tonight. This slate suggests paying down at PG, but both Lillard and Paul have high ceilings that are worth chasing in tournaments.
Value
Jose Calderon will get the start again for the Lakers, who are currently four-point dogs against the Hawks. Calderon has now hit salary-based expectations in three straight games, scoring 17.2, 18.8, and 27.2 FD points. That said, he’s played only 27.8, 20.0, and 22.8 minutes in those contests and is projected for 26.3 tonight with a low 14.81 usage rate. That makes him a bit risky, but he’s still only $3,400 DK and $3,500 FD; he has position-high Projected Plus/Minus marks of +4.85 and +4.87. He also has a great matchup today: While the Hawks are great defensively — they currently rank first in the NBA, allowing 96.5 points per 100 possessions — their weakness is at PG. Per our NBA Matchups tool, opposing PG Dennis Schroder has allowed opposing PGs to score 4.0 DK points over salary-based expectations in the past year.
Leverage Play
Patrick Beverley has received 30-plus minutes in his last two games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in those contests by 8.38 and 10.22 FD points. He’s projected for 31.0 minutes today and will face a Portland team that ranks dead last in defense this year, allowing a miserable 109.3 points per 100 possessions. Beverley is more expensive than Calderon at $4,400 DK and $4,600 FD, but he has a much higher floor given his minute projection. He also boasts high Projected Plus/Minus marks of +4.85 and +4.64 and could be a nice pivot down from Tim Frazier or up from Calderon.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Alert: James Harden is facing the worst defense in all of basketball in the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s obviously very expensive today at $11,500 DK and $11,400 FD, but he has massive projected ceilings of 76.1 and 68.8 points. Portland has actually been decent against starting SGs this year — Harden has a -0.33 DK Opponent Plus/Minus — but Harden is easily the best SG they’ve faced this year. In their first meeting, he dropped 72 DK points on 26 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists, and three steals. He has projected ownership of 36-40 percent on FD, but this isn’t a tough one. Play Harden in cash games today.
Value
Jordan Clarkson has now exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games by an average of 4.68 FD points. He’s scored 29.4, 23.6, and 34.6 FD points in his last three games and played a season-high 38.4 minutes in his last outing. He’s projected for 29.2 minutes today against the Hawks and has a position-high Projected Plus/Minus mark of +5.59 on FD, where he comes with eight Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He will definitely be the chalky value play at SG today: He’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership on FD. Clarkson has taken at least 14 shots in each of his last three games and is projected for a high 28.04 usage rate today. The matchup against the Hawks isn’t ideal, but he brings a lot of safety at his low $5,000 FD price tag.
Leverage Play
Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected for high 26-30 percent ownership on FD today, but that number could definitely dip if people go extra heavy on Harden given his matchup. That makes Giannis very intriguing in GPPs today, especially on DK, where he is listed as a PG and boasts 12 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. You can definitely roster both, but a lot of the big men today — notably Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, and Blake Griffin — all have elite matchups. Giannis has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games, scoring at least 45.8 FD points in those outings. Harden should be owned in more lineups than Giannis, but Giannis might be the only wing to rival Harden’s ceiling.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF spot today is really lacking elite talent at the top: Rudy Gay is the highest-priced player at $6,800 DK and $7,100 FD. He’s projected for 34.6 minutes and a 22.83 usage rate today against the Brooklyn Nets, who currently own the third-worst defense in the league, allowing 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Gay will likely start at the four spot, which means he should match up against Trevor Booker, who has allowed a poor +3.0 DK Plus/Minus to opposing players in the past year. The Kings are currently implied to score 111.75 points tonight — the second-highest mark in the slate behind the Rockets’ 112.75. Gay is projected to be owned in a position-high 26-30 percent of FD lineups tonight.
Value
Take away Glenn Robinson‘s game last Wednesday against the Hawks — he had only 4.6 FD points in 10.4 minutes of action — and he’s easily exceeded salary-based expectations in his past three games, scoring 31.2, 18.5, and 30.2 fantasy points in those contests. He’s also played huge minute totals, getting 39.6, 37.3, and 44.9 minutes in those games with Paul George and CJ Miles out for the Pacers. Robinson is projected to play 36.3 minutes tonight against the Clippers, who currently boast the third-best defense in the league. That is certainly not ideal, but it’s really hard to find a guy priced at $3,800 FD with that kind of minute projection. Note that he’s definitely a better play on FD, where he owns six Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
If you prefer to avoid players against the Clippers, Matt Barnes is only $3,900 and faces Brooklyn tonight. As mentioned above, most people will be on Gay in this matchup, which means that his teammate in Barnes could be a nice contrarian GPP pivot. Barnes is projected for 30.9 minutes tonight and has received at least 28 in each of his last five games. Again, SF is a really tough position tonight, but Barnes is projected to exceed value by 1.85 and 3.02 DK and FD points. This game has a high 219 Vegas total and the Kings are implied for 111.75 points. Getting a low-owned guy in that game projected for 30-plus minutes could certainly work out in tournaments, especially in this brutal SF slate.
Power Forward
Stud
If you can ignore Anthony Davis‘ tilting 24.1 FD game three games ago in which he left early with an injury, he’s had recent FD games of 58.6, 63.5, 64.2, and 67.8 points. Those are ridiculous totals, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in all of those games despite sky-high price tags. He’s expensive today as usual at $11,300 DK and $11,900 FD, but he’s still likely underpriced: He has slate-high Projected Plus/Minus marks of +7.15 and +7.70. He’s projected for 39.9 minutes and a whopping 32.24 usage rate today against a Dallas team that ranks 19th on defense this year. This game has a fairly low total of 199.5 points, but Brow has shown that he can put up absolutely monster games against any team. He’s an elite cash-game play alongside Harden, although note that he is projected to be owned in a slate-high 41-plus percent of FD lineups.
Value
Davis’ teammate, Terrence Jones, has now exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games by an average of 6.59 FD points. He is projected for 27.7 minutes tonight and is very reasonably-priced at only $5,100 on FD, where he comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus total on FD at +4.65, and I don’t think it is that ridiculous to play guys in the same position from the same team today — these Pelicans PFs and perhaps the Kings SFs. Jones will play off the bench behind Davis, and that could be a very interesting spot as Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams are questionable for today’s game. If they’re ruled out, Dallas will yet again play with a very shallow bench.
Leverage Play
Blake Griffin also has an elite matchup today, as he will face an Indiana team that currently ranks 17th on defense this year and will be without George again. Indiana has been the sixth-worst team versus PFs this year, allowing an average of 1.3 DK points over salary-based expectations to the position. Blake is much cheaper than Davis at $8,400 DK and $9,200 FD, and he actually has a higher rating in the Phan Model for DK, where he comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Blake has struggled in his last two games, missing salary-based expectations in each and scoring only 37.8 and 32.5 DK points, but that should further lower his ownership in GPPs. He’s an elite option in GPPs as a pivot down from the very chalky Davis.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins is clearly the top-end option at center today, as his projected ceilings of 71.4 and 66.1 DK and FD points are about eight points higher than any other player’s. He has an elite matchup today against a Brooklyn team that currently owns the third-worst defense in the league, allowing 108.6 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been particularly bad against opposing centers, allowing a +1.5 DK Plus/Minus to the position this year. Boogie has now scored 55.3 and 57.3 DK points in his last two, and he dropped a ridiculous 73.3-point DK outing four games ago against the tough Clippers defense. The Kings are implied for a high 111.75 points today and Boogie should be a big part of that: He’s projected for 34.6 minutes and a slate-high 37.4 usage rate.
Value
Clint Capela has absolutely crushed value lately:
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last eight games by an average of 9.68 FD points. He’s seen a price bump — he’s up at $6,000 DK and $5,900 FD today — but he’s still projected to exceed value by 2.85 and 5.44 points. He’s now seen at least 30 minutes in each of his last four games and gets a matchup today against the worst defense in the league in the Blazers. Capela has a ton of rebounding upside today: The Blazers currently rank 26th in rebound rate on the year. He’ll face Mason Plumlee, who has allowed centers to score at a rate of 1.2 fantasy points per minute over the past year. If paying down from Boogie, Capela is definitely a nice value option in all formats.
Leverage Play
DeAndre Jordan has now exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games by an average of 2.96 FD points. He hasn’t really seen the huge 20-20 potential he showed often last year, but he’s now down at $6,300 DK and $6,700 FD and gets the best center matchup in the NBA. He’ll face the Pacers tonight, who have allowed an awful +3.3 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to centers this season. They own the second-worst rebound rate as a team (47.2 percent), and Jordan is projected for 31.9 minutes tonight. He should be somewhat contrarian in tournaments given the high-end talent priced up today, but he has a very high ceiling given his matchup. The Clippers are currently implied to score 110 points as road favorites.
Good luck!
News Updates
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