Every week I typically do a Data Dive for the Sunday prime time slate. Because of the huge Thanksgiving guaranteed prize pools, this week we’re doing a DD on the three-game Thanksgiving slate. Here are the games:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of Wednesday morning. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt, Last 12 Months: 8.67, Dak Prescott
Dak has been not terrible this year as a DFS asset . . .
In his last three games, he has thrown for eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. More importantly, he’s shown the type of ceiling that we want out of a QB in our GPP lineup: He’s hit the 300-yard bonus in his last two games and has thrown for three touchdowns in three of his last five. This week he gets a Washington funnel defense that tends to push production toward opposing runs games, ranking 17th versus the pass yet 29th versus the run (per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). That said, that split is much less extreme than it has been in the past, and the Redskins are on a shockingly short week: They play at 4:30pm on Thanksgiving after battling the Packers on Sunday Night Football. In our Player Models, Dak is projected to be owned in fewer lineups than Kirk Cousins or Ben Roethlisberger, and he could easily be the highest-scoring QB of the week.
Red-Zone Opportunities Per Game, Last 12 Months: 5.38, Kirk Cousins
Cousins will definitely be popular on Thursday, even on a short week: We currently project him to be owned at 26-30 percent — the highest mark among the six QBs. But it’s hard to fade Cousins in this slate, especially with 1) Andrew Luck likely not playing due to a concussion and 2) Roethlisberger being on the road, a situation we’ve detailed time and time again here at FL. Also, the Redskins offense is perhaps the hottest in the NFL, putting up 42 fairly easy points against the Packers on Sunday night and scoring 26 and 27 points in the previous two games. Per our Plus/Minus metric, Cousins has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, racking up 10 TDs and only two INTs in that time frame. This game has the highest total on the board at 51 points, and it could definitely turn into a shootout if Dallas gets up early and Kirk starts throwing.
Running Back
Projected Plus/Minus (DK): +6.3, Le’Veon Bell
Bell is $9,000 DK, the highest-priced back. He’s $500 more than Ezekiel Elliott, and still he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus values on both sites. That is how dominant he’s been lately. He’s scored 37.1 and 34.4 DK points in his last two games on 45 carries and 19 targets. He owns a massive workload in this Steelers offense: Over their last four games, he’s seen 91.95 percent of the team’s rushes and 23.70 percent of the targets (per this week’s Market Share Report). He had literally 100 percent of the Steelers’ carries last week. To put his receiving workload in context, he has a higher percentage of his team’s targets than WR1s like Jarvis Landry, Kelvin Benjamin, and Amari Cooper have. Bell has the highest projected DK ceiling at 35.1 points. He’s a very tough fade and could conceivably hit both the 100-yard rushing bonus and 100-yard receiving bonus. Maybe even the 300-yard passing bonus, too. I wouldn’t put it past him.
Opportunities Per Game Inside the 10-Yard Line: 1.3, Ezekiel Elliott
Like Bell, the other high-priced RB — Zeke is $8,500 DK and $8,600 FD — is projected to be owned in 41-plus percent of lineups. There is an interesting dynamic with the RB position in this slate: Given that the Steelers are 8.5-point road favorites and Bell is seeing such a huge workload, I would imagine that he’ll be preferred over Zeke. In that case, people could definitely elect to roster a cheaper value RB like Rob Kelley — who just put up a memorable 24-137-3 line on Sunday — or maybe Theo Riddick, both of whom are seeing heavy volume and are likely underpriced. Again, Zeke will be popular, but perhaps he’ll be a bit less so, considering the dynamics of this spot. Washington is very poor against the run (29th), and Dallas is implied for a slate-high 29 points. Zeke leads all players with 15 FD Pro Trends.
Wide Receiver
Fantasy Points Per Snap, Last Month (FD): 0.31, Stefon Diggs
Diggs didn’t practice Tuesday, but he’ll be an upside play if he’s able to go on Thursday. Diggs has owned 34.03 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games — third among all pass-catchers in the NFL. He struggled last week against the Cardinals and cornerback Patrick Peterson, but he should have a lot more success this week against a Lions secondary that ranks dead last in pass DVOA this year. Per the NFL Matchups tool, he should have a Diggs battle against slot CB Quandre Diggs (no relation, but we can pretend since it’s Thanksgiving). Q. Diggs ranks 96th among CBs this year per Pro Football Focus, which rates this as the second-most advantageous matchup in all of Week 12. Our NFL News feed has a great blurb if you’re concerned about Darius Slay: “[Slay] has lined up in the slot on only 13 of his 462 snaps this season.” In this game, Diggs should eat some [insert your favorite Thanksgiving food that you love to argue is the best but probably isn’t].
Projected Points Per $1,000 Salary (DK): 3.1, Pierre Garcon
Here are Garcon’s target totals over the last five games: 7, 10, 7, 5, and 11. Only last week was he able to put together a huge fantasy performance, scoring 26.6 DK points on a 6-116-1 line. That said, this is a guy getting a ton of targets lately: He owns 18.35 percent of his team’s targets, although that undersells him a bit, considering the Redskins’ volume in this offense, and he’s shockingly only $3,900 DK. For that reason, he leads all players in projected points per $1,000 salary, is second on DK in Projected Plus/Minus (+4.2), and is the highest-rated WR in the Bales Model. He’ll definitely be highly-owned as a result — he’s projected to be owned in 21-25 percent of lineups — but he’s definitely in line for six-plus targets at an almost-min price tag that allows you to spend up for the studs.
Tight End
Red-Zone Opportunities Per Game, Last 12 Months: 1.13, Jason Witten
Witten is definitely the cash-game TE option in this slate: He’s easily the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales Model. Over Dallas’ last four games, he’s owned 20.59 percent of the targets and has three targets inside the 10-yard line. He’s caught at least five balls in each of his last three games, and he blew up three weeks ago, scoring 30.4 DK points on an 8-134-1 line. He brings a lot of safety this week at a very low price tag — he’s only $3,200 DK and $5,600 FD — and he should see a ton of snaps in what could be a high-scoring affair. However, he’s projected to be owned in a position-high 31-40 and 21-25 percent of lineups on DK and FD. That definitely makes him fade-worthy in tournaments if you want to be contrarian.
Pro Trends (FD): 10, Jordan Reed
Reed hasn’t quite been himself since returning to action three weeks ago, scoring ‘only’ 10.4, 5.1, and 20.4 points in his recent games. That said, Reed is still getting a healthy number of targets — seven, eight, and 10 over the last three weeks — and he has the highest projected ceiling on FD (24.2) and leads all TEs with 10 Pro Trends. He has a brilliant matchup this week against a Dallas defense that ranks 31st against TEs in pass DVOA. Reed definitely has multi-TD potential and could be a key piece to taking down a Thanksgiving GPP.
Good luck!
