Monday brings a nine-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
In a very star-studded PG slate, it is actually John Wall who boasts the highest-projected ceiling on FanDuel at 58.2 points currently. He’s been excellent lately, scoring at least 40 FD points in each of his last three games despite seeing varying minute totals of 37.1, 31.3, and 23.9 because of blowouts. Tonight he has an awesome matchup against a Suns team that plays at the fastest pace in the league — and will likely play a little bit faster tonight (more on that in a minute) — and the Suns rank only 23rd defensively, allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions. The Wizards are currently implied by Vegas for 113 points — the second-highest mark in the slate — and Wall should be a big part of that number tonight.
Value
Jonathan Gibson will likely be a popular punt play tonight. The Mavericks have been decimated by injuries lately and will be without Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki, and JJ Barea. Seth Curry will likely get the start at PG again, but Gibson made his debut last game and scored 35.7 FD points in 31.7 minutes of action against the Magic. The only issue with Gibson tonight is his matchup: He will face the Spurs, who this year rank ninth defensively, allowing 101.6 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are massive favorites at -16, and the Mavs are implied for a low 83 points. Curry and Gibson are really intriguing at their near-min prices, but there’s probably too much risk here to lock them into cash games.
Leverage Play
Chris Paul is a really intriguing tournament play today as a pivot down from the likely high ownership of Wall and Stephen Curry. Toronto has historically been a tough matchup for PGs — Kyle Lowry is a solid on-ball defender — but they actually rank as the third-worst team versus PGs this year, allowing 2.9 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric). This game has the third-highest total on the board at 209.5, and the Clippers are implied for a high 108.75 points. Based on the FanDuel ownership projections in our Player Models, Curry is likely to be owned in 36-40 percent of lineups, Wall in 26-30 percent, and Paul in only 13-16 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is expensive at $11,900 DK and $11,700 FD and has a tough matchup against a Detroit team that ranks seventh defensively this year, allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions. That said, he’s about as matchup-proof as they come: He dropped 53.6 FD points against the stingy Jazz defense on Saturday and has been above 50 FD points in two contests versus the Spurs this year. He’s projected to be massively owned — he has a slate-high 41-plus percent projected ownership on FD — but his 1.29 fantasy points per minute dwarfs that of any other SG. He’s definitely the elite talent of the group. Despite the high price tag, he’s projected to exceed salary-based expectations by +4.27 points currently. He comes with 14 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating on FD.
Value
With Justise Winslow ruled out and Dion Waiters questionable for tonight’s game, it looks like Josh Richardson should get heavy minutes across all the guard and wing positions. He’s now hit salary-based expectations in five of his last six games and has played at least 32 minutes in his last three. We currently have him projected for 33.9 minutes tonight against a Philadelphia team that looks much improved but still ranks 23rd defensively this season. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Richardson should start opposite Robert Covington, who has allowed opposing players to score 1.9 DK points above salary-based expectations in the past year. The Heat are implied for 101.75 points currently, and Richardson is only $4,400 on FD, where he comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Most people will elect to pay up for Harden or perhaps pivot to DeMar DeRozan, who (despite some shooting regression recently) still is third in the NBA with 31.4 points per game. If that’s the case, Giannis Antetokounmpo becomes really intriguing as a high-priced pivot. He has hit salary-based expectations in three of his last four games — games against tough teams/defenses in Golden State, Miami, Atlanta, and Memphis. Tonight’s matchup is a little more intriguing, as the Bucks are implied to score 104 points against the Orlando Magic. Giannis is a matchup problem for almost every player in the world, but tonight’s matchup against Jeff Green is especially juicy: Green has been his usual/miserable defensive self this season, posting a defensive rating of 109. Giannis has a ceiling as high as almost any other player’s and could be a little lower-owned than the other studs.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has been relatively safe with his minutes regardless of the game spread, which is good news considering that the Warriors are large 13-point favorites tonight over the home Pacers. Durant has been on fire lately, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last six games and scoring at least 41 FD points in each game in that time frame. He’s put up 50-plus in the last two games against the Bucks and revamped Celtics defense. The Pacers will be without Paul George again tonight, which means that Durant should match up against Glenn Robinson, who is probably giving up around six inches to Durant in height. Durant will be highly-owned — we have him at 41-plus percent projected ownership on FD — but he’s a very safe play in cash games and has a very high ceiling for tournaments.
Value
Speaking of Robinson: He’s not a bad value play tonight at only $3,700 DK and $3,500 FD. Last game he played 45 minutes — that was an overtime game, to be fair — against the tough Thunder defense and dropped 30.2 FD points, exceeding value by a whopping 16.97 points. He’s projected for 32.0 minutes tonight, which is obviously intriguing given his price points. There’s risk here because of the matchup and spread, but I think that I slightly prefer him to another SF punt play that should be popular in PJ Tucker. Robinson has a position-high +6.37 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where he comes with six Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Otto Porter has exceeded salary-based expectations over his last 10 games on FD by an average of 8.51 points. He’s playing massive minutes lately — he’s been at 36.9, 39.2, and 41.1 in his last three — and should get a ton of possessions tonight in this juicy Suns-Wizards game. The Suns play at the fastest pace in the league this year (104.8) and should actually play a bit faster tonight without Tyson Chandler. Per our NBA On/Off tool, starters like Devin Booker have seen an increase of about 5.6 possessions without Chandler in the game. That bodes well for a high-minute guy on the Wizards, and especially one who could get overlooked because people will really want to roster Wall and Bradley Beal. Porter is currently the highest-rated SF in the FD Phan Model tonight.
Power Forward
Stud
If you want to pay up at PF — and maybe you shouldn’t in cash games given the value — Blake Griffin is clearly the guy you want. He’s the most expensive option by quite a bit at $8,500 DK and $9,100 FD, but he’s hit salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games by an average of 6.52 FD points per game. He’s been very underpriced and has shown an incredibly safe floor regardless of matchup. Tonight he gets one he can definitely win, as he’ll face a Toronto defense that hasn’t been quite as good this year, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions. Blake has put up 45-plus FD outings in each of his last three games and will face Pascal Siakam to start the game — a late first-round. Blake could have a huge game.
Value
Thaddeus Young is in that high-total GS-Indy game (220) that has a really high spread (13). That said, he’s been crushing value without Paul George lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six games, and he dropped 37.7 FD points in 38.2 minutes last night against a tough Thunder defense. He should play a ton of minutes tonight — he’s projected for 32.0 currently — and is still only $5,200 on FD, where he comes with a position-high 13 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. If you aren’t scared off the spread, he’s an easy cash-game play at a tough PF spot.
Leverage Play
Markieff Morris is an interesting leverage play for the same reason Porter is: A lot of people will want to load up on Wall, Beal, and even Eric Bledsoe, Alan Williams, and Alex Len in this game. People naturally avoid stacking in NBA DFS because of negative correlations between most teammates, which could lower the ownership of a guy like Morris in a juicy game. Morris had only 6.0 FD points last game but that was due to leaving early with an ankle injury. He’s good to go tonight, and we have him projected in his usual 32.8-minute range. He’s very cheap at only $5,300 on FD, where he boasts a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus among PFs on FD at +4.57 and rates only behind Thad in the FD Phan Model.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside is definitely the stud to pay for if you don’t want to punt with Williams tonight. Despite Whiteside’s high $9,100 FD price tag, he still has a massive +7.49 Projected Plus/Minus, boasting 10 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been so dominant lately, putting up rebound totals of 18, 17, 25, and 17 in his last four games. He’s also racked up 10 blocks in his last two games. He’ll have to battle Joel Embiid down low, but Whiteside hasn’t been deterred by any matchup this year. He has a projected ceiling on FD of 68.9 points, which is nearly 14 points higher than any other center’s. He’s projected for 33.8 minutes tonight and is always a threat for a massive 20-20 game.
Value
Alan Williams is about as chalky as it gets. He’s only $3,900 DK and $4,200 FD and owns slate-high Projected Plus/Minus totals of +11.6 and +11.1, respectively. As far as I can tell, those are the highest marks we’ve seen from any player this year. In his last two games, he’s posted 36.2 and 39.5 FD points in 23.3 and 25.5 minutes of action. He should see around the same minute total — he’s at 23.5 tonight — but he’s projected for a 20.1 usage rate and is definitely a solid threat to get a double-double as well as rack up steals and blocks. He is averaging a stupid 1.46 fantasy points per minute and has 17-20 percent projected ownership, which is a really high mark for the center position.
Leverage Play
We’ll keep the trend going here and list another Wizards player as a leverage play. Marcin Gortat is seeing massive minutes lately and is coming off a game in which he scored 44.2 FD points in 37.6 minutes of action against Whiteside and the Heat. Tonight he gets a great matchup in a high-total, fast-paced game: He’s projected for 34.1 minutes tonight. Again, the Wizards are implied to score 113 points — the second-highest mark in the slate — and Gortat has some sneaky rebounding upside in this high-possession game. Len and Williams have been capable rebounders at times, but there will definitely be a ton of rebounds to go around, especially with high-rebound wings like Warren out tonight. Whiteside and Williams are the high and low chalk, but Gortat could surprise in that mid-tier range.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
