Friday brings a 10-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
After playing the most brutal back-to-back imaginable — against the Cavs and Warriors — Kyle Lowry now gets the best matchup in all of daily fantasy hoops this year against the Nuggets. Per our Trends tool, Denver has allowed opposing PGs to score 4.3 FD points above salary-based expectations this season (per our Plus/Minus metric), which is a whopping 1.5 points higher than any other team’s mark. Despite the tough B2B, Lowry actually hit value in both games and has now exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine by an average of 7.79 points. He seems to be quite underpriced at $7,900 DK and $8,300 FD. He’s $3,100 cheaper than Russell Westbrook on FD, for reference. This is a great spot for Lowry to continue his solid 2016-17 season, and you can probably get him for reduced ownership, considering how star-studded the PG position is tonight.
Speaking of another guy who is likely underpriced, Stephen Curry is only $9,100 on FD, where he holds 12 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He has scored at least 47 FD points in each of his last three games, which is about 10 points higher than his salary-based expectation tonight. Boston isn’t quite the matchup it was at the beginning of the year: After posting the worst defensive rating in the league for the first couple weeks, they’re now up to 17th in the NBA since starting Marcus Smart. Further, Al Horford is a game-time decision tonight and will definitely give the defense a boost if he’s able to suit up. Curry definitely can beat this matchup and he’s still very underpriced, but just note that the DvP data might be a bit misleading tonight and in the future with Boston. Steph has a top-five rating on both DK and FD in the Phan Model.
Value
This is a bit of an odd night for PGs in that the best ‘values’ are really the highest-priced guys, who are just a bit underpriced currently. We already mentioned Lowry and Curry, and Isaiah Thomas is right up there as well. He’s $7,900 on DK, where he holds a position-high 14 Pro Trends and a 66 percent Bargain Rating. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on DK in eight of his last nine games by an average of 6.04 points. He’s dropped 30 real life points in each of the last two despite dealing with a gruesome-looking finger injury. Tonight he faces a Warriors team that currently ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors have allowed opposing PGs to score 1.1 FD points over salary-based expectations this season. He’s a great GPP play tonight.
Leverage Play
We know that Denver is the worst team in the league versus PGs this season. The second-worst team has been the Brooklyn Nets, who have allowed opposing PGs to score 2.8 FD points above salary-based expectations in the past year. That seems problematic considering that they’re facing Russell Westbrook tonight, who has scored at least 49 FD points in each of his last five games. Westbrook has kept up his monstrous usage rate of 41.6 percent and is projected for 35.4 minutes and a 38.13 usage rate tonight. He’s a ‘Leverage Play’ tonight because of the immense PG value in the $7,000-$9,000 range and because the Thunder are large 9.5-point favorites. That said, Westbrook’s projected FD ceiling of 74.4 points is 16.1 points higher than any other PG’s.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan is easily the most expensive SG in the slate at $8,600 DK and $9,200 FD, and he still holds position-high Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.75 DK and +5.45 FD. Despite the high price tags, he’s hit value in eight of his last nine games and has scored at least 40 FD points in each of his last five games. He’s been playing massive minutes and that should continue tonight: He’s projected for 36.6 minutes and a position-high 36.46 usage rate. Denver has been really poor against SGs as well, allowing a +1.4 FD Plus/Minus to opposing SGs this season. DeRozan should definitely be popular at 17-20 percent projected ownership on FD, but it’s understandable if you prefer higher-priced guys at other positions in cash games like Steph and Anthony Davis.
Value
With JJ Barea, Deron Williams, and Dirk Nowitzki out tonight for the Mavericks, they’ll definitely need some offensive firepower. Seth Curry could be the guy to provide that, as he’s played well in his 30-plus minutes per game over the last four games. His shot hasn’t fallen in his last two games — he’s scored six and nine real points — but he had 35-plus FD outings in the two games prior. Given the Mavs injuries and how difficult the SG position is, Seth at only $4,100 FD seems like a pretty easy play tonight. He has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and comes with only two to four percent projected ownership. He’s playable in all contest formats tonight and provides access to the high-priced studs.
Leverage Play
Victor Oladipo finally broke out of his season-long slump last game, putting up a monster 49.5 FD points in 40.2 minutes against the Rockets. The minute total is important, and he’s projected for 33.4 minutes tonight. The Thunder are currently implied for 114.25 points, yet they feature a ton of low-usage players outside of Westbrook. Oladipo, if he can continue to see 30-plus minutes, is the obvious player to carry some of the offensive burden alongside Westbrook. Nevertheless, he’s a value today because of his low price tags, especially on FD, where his $5,500 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is the class of the position tonight at only $9,700 on FD, where he holds 13 Pro Trends and a solid 60 percent Bargain Rating. The Warriors are implied to score a slate-high 115.75 points, and Durant is currently projected for 35.8 minutes and a 28.6 usage rate. Per our Matchups tool, Durant should be guarded by Marcus Smart on the wing tonight, which seems problematic because Durant is a seven-footer and Smart is listed at 6’4″: The math certainly isn’t in Smart’s favor, especially against a guy who has no qualms about just shooting over smaller defenders. Durant has been excellent lately, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last four games and scoring 40-plus FD points in all of those contests. He’s the second-highest rated SF for both DK and FD in the Phan Model.
Value
With Al-Farouq Aminu out for the Blazers, Moe Harkless should continue to fill in and play 30-plus minutes. He’s been good in that time, hitting salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games. He’s scored at least at least 20 FD points in each of his last four, which doesn’t sound that exciting, but remember that he comes with a low $4,600 price tag on FD, where he owns six Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD at +4.74, and he leads the position with 5.0 projected points per $1,000 salary. He’s actually the highest-rated SF in the FD Phan Model and is a nice value punt play in cash games.
Leverage Play
Paul George is in a really nice spot tonight against a Suns team that currently ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.0 points per 100 possessions. They have been absolutely terrible against SFs this year, allowing a huge +5.4 FD Plus/Minus to the position on the season. George is coming off an excellent game against a tougher Cavs squad in which he put up 44.7 FD points in 36.7 minutes of action. He’s projected for 34.7 minutes and a 28.06 percent usage rate tonight. The Pacers are currently implied for 112.75 points — the third-highest total in the slate. George is only $8,100 on DK, where he owns 12 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the highest-rated DK SF in the Phan Model and makes for an excellent pivot play down from Durant.
Power Forward
Stud
The Pelicans are implied to score 106 points against a Portland team on the second leg of a back-to-back. Further, Portland has been terrible defensively after losing Aminu: They now rank an embarrassing 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.5 points per 100 possessions. Further, they have absolutely no one to guard Anthony Davis: Per our Matchups tool, he should match up against Meyers Leonard, who has allowed opposing PFs to score 3.7 DK points above salary-based expectations in the past year. Brow is very expensive at $10,800 DK and $11,400 FD, yet he has the highest ceiling projection on FD by a whopping 13.7 points. He plays with a ton of low-usage players. If the Pelicans are going to approach 106 points, it’ll take a big game from Brow.
Value
Thaddeus Young is only $5,000 DK and $5,200 FD and holds a top-five rating in the Phan Model on each site. He’s seen a bump in minutes lately — he’s gotten 30-plus in four of his last five games — and has turned that into solid production, scoring at least 22 FD points in all of those games. We have him projected tonight for 30.0 minutes and a 15.98 usage rate against a Suns defense that plays at the fastest pace in the league and has a bottom-five defense. That’s a recipe for a lot of #fantasygoodness, and that shows in the Pacers’ high Vegas line of 112.75 points. The PF spot is really tough tonight, and Thad is a worthwhile shot in all formats.
Leverage Play
A lot of people will (rightfully) want to play Steph and Durant at their low price points, but that could potentially lead to reduced ownership for Draymond Green. Dray hasn’t been much of a tournament play this year, as he’s shown a very narrow range of outcomes on the season: Since the first game of the season, he’s scored between 32 and 45 FD points in every single game. While other guys in his price range (Blake Griffin, for example) may have higher ceilings, Draymond has a very safe floor given his ability to score fantasy points in a variety of ways. The Warriors obviously have a juicy total and Draymond is currently the highest-rated PF in the FD Phan Model. He’s an excellent cash-game play if you don’t mind paying up for him.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has an absolutely brutal matchup against the top-ranked Clippers defense. That said, he’s shown that he’s relatively matchup-proof before and we saw the Clippers give up a big game on Wednesday to Marc Gasol — 42.2 FD points in 37.3 minutes on a 26-6-6 line. If Gasol can do that, Cousins definitely has upside in this spot. Boogie has been crushing lately: He’s scored at least 44 FD points in each of his last five games and had at least 50 in three of those. He’s getting to the foul line a ton: He had 14 attempts just last game against the tough Spurs defense. He’s the most expensive option tonight and has a tough matchup, but that could potentially lower his ownership and make him intriguing in tournaments.
Value
Pau Gasol is definitely the value play tonight at only $6,000 DK and $6,200 FD, where he has 13 Pro Trends and a 60 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently projected to play 30.4 minutes and post a 19.92 usage rate against a Lakers team that plays at a top-four pace this year. We won’t get into the #RevengeGame narrative, but really Pau is just way too cheap on both sites. He’s crushed value in each of his last four games: He had 41.8 FD points last game against the Kings. His $6,200 salary requires only 25.08 points to hit value. He’s definitely in play in all contest formats tonight.
Leverage Play
Brook Lopez is a little expensive at $7,300 FD, but it’s definitely hard to argue with that given his recent production. He’s hit value in six of his last seven games, and he absolutely crushed last game against the Lakers, scoring 50.5 FD points on 30 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists. Tonight he is projected for 28.2 minutes and a 33.84 usage rate, although he does have a tough matchup against OKC’s sixth-ranked defense. That said, we’ve seen Brook’s immense ceiling and he’s projected to be owned in only two to four percent of FD contests. Gasol will definitely be the chalk and other users will elect to pay for Boogie or Andre Drummond; Lopez is a nice mid-range pivot point.
Good luck!
News Updates
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