The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Ravens at Cowboys
The Ravens travel to Dallas to face off against the Cowboys as 7.5-point road dogs. The over/under for this game is 45 points. The Ravens are implied to score only 18.75 points with the Cowboys implied to score 26.25.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco was finally able to take advantage of a good matchup, as he threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Browns (although he did throw two interceptions). Flacco threw only six total TDs in Weeks 1-9. However, he was missing wide receiver Steve Smith for much of that span. This week, Flacco faces off against a Cowboys defense that is 22nd against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Dallas employs a run-heavy ball-control offense that might struggle against the Ravens’ top-ranked rushing defense (per DVOA). If the Ravens defense is able to limit Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas rushing attack, Flacco will have ample opportunities to attack this secondary, which has struggled without cornerback Morris Claiborne and safety Barry Church.
Flacco is not a safe option in cash games but is in consideration for guaranteed prize pools, as he rates as a top-10 DraftKings QB in the Levitan Player Model.
RB – Terrance West
West has now fallen on his face for three straight games. He has 44 rushing attempts for 96 yards in that span, or 2.2 yards per carry. It is hard to imagine that West is going to continue to see a long leash, as he was unable to get anything going with his 21 carries against the Browns last week. He is not a recommended option against the Cowboys defense, which ranks sixth in rush DVOA.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Dixon was heavily involved in the passing game during Week 10, seeing seven targets to West’s two. He was also much more successful in his limited rushing attempts, as he piled up 38 yards on six attempts. With the Ravens projected to trail and facing a defense much stouter against the run than the pass, the game seems to suit itself to Dixon. This makes Dixon an interesting option on DK, where he is near minimum salary. Unfortunately, he has only one DK Pro Trend and is likely to split work with West.
WR – Steve Smith
Smith continues to serve as the top receiver in this offense, leading the team in targets for two straight weeks. However, he has seen only 14 targets over that span. This is much lower volume than he saw in the first few weeks of the season. It is important to note, though, that the Ravens were leading in both of their last two games.
With the Ravens projected to trail this week, Smith draws the best matchup of the Ravens receivers. Running most of his routes from the slot, he projects to see the most of CB Orlando Scandrick per the FantasyLabs Matchups tool. Of all starting cornerbacks in the NFL, Scandrick is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per route run. Smith could see eight to 10 targets in this plus matchup against a Cowboys defense allowing a +1.1 FD Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers over the last 16 games. He has a projected ceiling of 20.9 FD points and looks to be an interesting GPP option on both sites.
WR – Mike Wallace
Wallace has managed to see only 11 targets over the last two weeks with Smith back on the field. His volume is going to suffer, but in Week 10 Wallace showed that he needs only one target to produce a long touchdown. With Dallas projected to be without both Church and Claiborne for another week, Wallace will certainly have an opportunity to get behind this secondary. With his very low projected volume, our Player Models give him a projected floor of only two FD points. He is a very deep GPP option only.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman has seen only eight total targets since Smith’s return and did not clear 70 yards in either game. He did score a touchdown last week, but that came late in garbage time against the Browns. Until Perriman sees more target volume, he will be an inconsistent TD-dependent receiver.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta has not been able to put much together since his huge Week 2 performance. He has now had fewer than 50 receiving yards for four straight weeks. Since Smith’s return, Pitta has seen only nine total targets. Pitta would make for an interesting low-yardage TD-scoring TE, if only he scored TDs. He has zero this season. He makes more sense on DK, given the full points-per-reception scoring, but even there he is a very low-ceiling option, and his 10 percent DK Bargain Rating doesn’t help.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Prescott has been really good. He’s thrown for 10 touchdowns and rushed for one TD in his past four games. During that time he has not thrown for fewer than 247 yards and has averaged 275 passing yards per game. Importantly, Prescott has not scored fewer than 20.5 DK points in that span, and for some reason his salary has dropped on both DK and FD this week. Prescott has averaged 23.87 DK points per game in his last four games and has FantasyLabs ownership projections of less than five percent in both the Millionaire Maker and Sunday Million this week.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Seriously. What am I supposed to write about this cat? Since the clock struck October the dude has been off the chain. In his last six games Elliott has averaged 28.1 FD points per game, produced a +11.17 Plus/Minus on FD, and has done so with 100 percent Consistency at just 11.3 percent ownership. He is currently PFF’s No. 1 overall RB, and the Cowboys have the No. 3 run-blocking offensive line in the NFL (per Football Outsiders). Elliott’s FantasyLabs projected ownership in the Sunday Million is currently 26-30 percent, but he gets so much volume every week that he still might not be chalky enough to fade in GPPs.
RB – Alfred Morris
When Elliott needs a breather from running all over various defenses, Morris comes in for a few carries. Occasionally he vultures a TD. He might get some run with the Cowboys projected as big favorites, but Morris isn’t a reliable DFS asset.
WR – Dez Bryant
The good Dez came to play last week: He went over 100 yards for the third time this season and scored his third touchdown. Bryant has now been targeted 27 times in the past three games. When Bryant has gotten nine or more targets this season he has averaged 17.86 FD points. In the games in which he has been targeted fewer than nine times he has averaged 5.06 FD points. If you’re targeting Bryant this week, play him on FD, where he has a 96 percent Bargain Rating and projected ownership of just two to four percent in the Sunday Million. A boom-or-bust WR this season, Dez is more suited right now to GPPs than cash games.
Dez (back) was added to the injury report on Friday. He’s questionable but expected to play.
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley has been a consistent source of points this season, scoring fewer than double-digit DK points in just two of nine games. He’s averaged seven targets per game over his last four games and has scored three TDs during that time. Prescott has demonstrated an affinity for Beasley all season long, but Cole’s ceiling has remained limited despite his QB’s love: He has failed to produce more than 66 yards in each of his last six games.
WR – Terrance Williams
In the three weeks since Dez has returned, Williams has averaged 3.6 targets, 1.7 receptions, and 2.46 FD points. Don’t do it.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten is currently the highest-rated TE in the Levitan Model for DK, where he is priced at just $3,300. Witten has averaged 7.25 targets and five receptions per game over his past four games. Per our Trends tool, similarly priced tight ends with comparable target volume have produced a +3.93 DK Plus/Minus with 62.3 percent Consistency. If you are looking to use a cheap TE in GPPs and want to pivot away from Patriots TE Martellus Bennett, Witten could be your guy. He’s projected for two to four percent ownership in the Milly Maker.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
