The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Patriots at 49ers
This game currently has a 50.5-point Vegas total. The Patriots are 13-point road favorites implied to score 31.75 points; the 49ers, 18.75.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
Week 10 was a huge disappointment for Brady with running back LeGarrette Blount stealing all the touchdowns against the Seahawks. Brady has been fairly matchup-independent this year, barely falling below salary based expectations in two of five games (per our Plus/Minus metric):
Brady is first in every major efficiency QB category and this week he’s facing a 49ers defense that ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) but has fairly significant splits: The 49ers funnel defense ranks 31st against the run but ‘only’ 17th against the pass. The ‘Gronkless’ Patriots have the highest-implied total of the slate, so Brady’s upside is appealing in guaranteed prize pools, but this might not be the dream spot it seems to be.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
If you consider yourself a ‘Blount whisperer’ you probably believe that he’s not the volatile player he is widely believed to be. DraftKings has continuously underpriced him because he doesn’t catch passes, causing him arguably to have more value on the site with full points-per-reception scoring.
That said, DK has priced him all the way up to $6,400 this week, but he’s facing a 49ers defense that may be the worst in the league against the run. Blount carries multi-touchdown upside as the team’s goal-line back, and he currently ranks fourth in our Cash Model on FD, where he holds a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has the second-most Pro Trends at the position.
RB – James White
White could be a fantastic GPP leverage play to Blount and has shown touchdown equity of his own. Priced at just $5,900 — $1,400 less than Blount — White is currently the No. 2 FD RB (trailing only Blount) in the Tournament Model, but you can get him at zero to one percent ownership in the Sunday Million (per our highly accurate projections).
RB – Dion Lewis
Lewis (knee) is nearing a return, but head coach Bill Belichick admitted that there will be a “certain buildup process.” Whatever that means. We’ve been duped by Belichick RBs before, and if healthy Lewis is definitely #good. We just have to wait and see.
WR – Julian Edelman
Edelman has actually had incredibly steady volume this season: He has seen at least six targets in every game but one this year, and he is 13th in the NFL in target share (26.89 percent) over the last four games. It’s not great that he’s scored just one touchdown this year, but Edelman could see some positive TD regression with tight end Rob Gronkowski likely out. Per our Trends Tool, FD primary slot receivers have typically performed slightly above salary-based expectations against the 49ers this year:
Edelman is a fantastic option in both cash games and GPPs with a projected ownership of 13-16 percent. Considering the high total and premium matchup, most people could be on Blount and Bennett, but Edelman is currently the No. 2 FD WR in our Cash Model, with a 99 percent Bargain Rating as well as far and away the highest Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan (back) is out for Week 11.
WR – Danny Amendola
It is highly unlikely that Amendola will repeat his Week 2 multi-TD performance anytime soon, as he had just one target last week. However, with Hogan out, Amendola is likely to see more targets. He could have sneaky upside.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Gronk (lung) is out for Week 11. He didn’t travel with the team to San Fran.
TE – Martellus Bennett
The bye week did Bennett’s ankle a lot of good, as he went for 102 yards on seven targets in Week 10. He’s shown a lot of TD upside, but within his range of possibilities is also a game in which he primarily blocks with Gronk out. That said, the 49ers don’t have much of a pass rush, so Bennett is likely to see his fair share of opportunities.
Bennett is the No. 2 DK TE in the Tournament Model, possessing the third-highest ceiling and the top Projected Plus/Minus by a large margin. He’s projected to be chalky with 13-16 percent ownership.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Colin Kaepernick
Say what you want about Kaep as a real-life QB, but he’s been a very valuable DFS asset. He’s hit salary-based expectations in all four starts this year, scoring 23.9 and 27.2 DK points in his last two games. As expected, he’s been very active running the football; he’s actually the 49ers’ leading rusher over the past month (per the Market Share Report):
Kaep has accounted for 31.68 percent of the 49ers’ rushes over the past four weeks — 32 in total. For this reason, Kaep has interesting projections: He has the 11th-highest median projection on FD but the third-highest floor projection among all QBs. He owns the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus values on DK and FD at +4.8 and +3.4. It seems really odd to suggest that Kaep is a solid cash-game option in a game in which he’s a massive dog implied to score few points against a 7-2 Patriots team coming off a loss — but, Kaep is a solid cash play. Russell Wilson didn’t post gaudy rushing numbers last week against the Patriots, but his legs were a big part of his success and the Patriots are average defensively, ranking 16th in DVOA.
RB – Carlos Hyde
The Patriots do possess a funnel defense, as they are great against the run (fourth in DVOA) and poor against the pass (27th). That is bad news for Hyde, who returned to action last week and finished with 13 carries for 14 total yards. Given the value plays at RB — for example, C.J. Prosise is $700 cheaper on DK and a massive $1,600 cheaper on FD — it’s hard to justify Hyde in this matchup as a huge dog. Hyde has a low 3.7-point projected FD floor this and hasn’t shown much pass-catching ability in recent games either: He has just one target and no catches in his last two starts. He’s a GPP dart play at best this week.
RB – DuJuan Harris
Harris was expected to split time with Hyde last week but saw only five touches. He got 17.96 percent of the 49ers’ carries in that game and has very little appeal this weekend, given the likely reduced workload. He has a -0.2 Projected Plus/Minus on FD.
WR – Quinton Patton
Over the past four games, Patton leads all 49ers pass-catchers with 22.48 percent of the team’s targets and 24.82 percent of the Air Yards. While he didn’t do much in the first half of the season, he’s certainly emerged recently: He’s seen nine targets per game in his last two contests despite seeing no more than seven in any other game. He exploded for 106 receiving yards two weeks ago against the poor Saints defense and has an underrated matchup against a Patriots secondary that ranks just 27th in the league. The Patriots move their defenders around the field, but Patton is expected to start the game opposite Justin Coleman (per our Matchups tool). Coleman is Pro Football Focus’ 72nd-ranked CB on the year with a 64.5 coverage grade.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
There was a period with Blaine Gabbert at the helm when Kerley led the NFL in receiving target share over a four-game period. He’s dropped considerably since then: He owns only 19.38 percent of the 49ers’ targets and 17.60 percent of their Air Yards over the past month. That said, he did put up a good game last week, catching all seven of his targets for 71 yards and a touchdown — a 19.1-point DK outing at a $3,700 price tag. This week he’s down at $3,500 and is expected to match up against Patriots slot corner Logan Ryan, PFF’s 98th-ranked CB on the year with a poor coverage grade of 49.5. Kerley’s worth a shot in GPPs.
WR – Torrey Smith
Perhaps Smith’s struggles this year can be blamed on the offense and lack of great QBs. That said, at this point we just need to accept the fact that he’s the No. 3 WR in this offense behind Patton and Kerley. Smith has seen only 12.4 percent of the 49ers’ targets in the past month and 19.04 percent of the Air Yards. He has three games with fewer than three targets. He’s incredibly risky and has a low 1.1-point projected floor on DK.
Smith (shoulder) is questionable for Week 11 but expected to play.
TE – Vance McDonald
McDonald has now seen six targets in each of his last three games. Only one of those games produced a double-digit DK outing, but he’s only $2,700 on DK and has seen a nice bump in opportunities lately. That said, he has a low 1.3-point projected floor on DK; he probably doesn’t have a high enough floor or ceiling to use in cash games or GPPs. Charles Clay at $100 cheaper will likely be the more popular punt play against the Bengals.
News Updates
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