The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Steelers at Browns
The Steelers travel to Cleveland for their first divisional tilt with the Browns. Pittsburgh opened as nine-point favorites, but quickly dropped to 7.5-point favorites with a projected over/under of 49 points. The Steelers implied total is 28.25, and the Browns are implied to score 20.75.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben is back on the road after a tremendous performance at home. He now has 15 touchdowns in four home games and only five touchdowns in four road games. Week 11 is going to be a polarizing spot for Ben, because other than being on the road he has a matchup that could not be any better.
After giving up three touchdowns to Joe Flacco in Week 10, the Browns have now allowed every quarterback they have faced (outside of Ryan Fitzpatrick) to throw for multiple touchdown passes. The Browns pass defense ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Roethlisberger will yet again be a great tournament option this weekend, but as we can see by the 1.5-point drop in the spread already Ben is never a sure bet on the road against a divisional opponent. Even given the plus matchup, Ben rates outside the top-7 quarterbacks in the CSURAM88 FanDuel and DraftKings Player Models.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Even if Roethlisberger were to struggle in this spot, it is hard to imagine that Bell will not have success against the defense ranked 29th in rush DVOA. Over the season, the Browns are allowing 143.7 rushing yards per game, second to only San Francisco. They are allowing the sixth-highest yards per carry this season at 4.5.
Le’Veon is averaging an unreal 9.33 targets per game this season, which would extrapolate to 149 targets over sixteen games. That would have been the 10th-highest total in the NFL in 2015 — higher than Mike Evans’ total. Basically, Bell is averaging elite receiver target volume and getting 15-plus carries per game. He is locked and loaded with the highest RB ceiling projection in our Player Models.
RB – Fitzgerald Toussaint
Toussaint is mostly here as a formality; he won’t see any significant snaps behind Le’Veon.
WR – Antonio Brown
Happy to have a healthy Ben back on the field, Brown exploded for 154 receiving yards in Week 10. He has now seen 11-plus targets for three straight weeks and seems to be back on track for massive volume after a slow stretch in Weeks 4-6.
He now faces off against a Cleveland defense that is ranked 30th in pass DVOA against WR1s and allowing a +2.0 FD Plus/Minus to WRs over the last 16 games, the third-highest mark in the slate. The Browns are also allowing a league-high eight yards per attempt and 12.2 yards per catch.
Brown should have very little trouble as long as this game does not get out of hand early. He rates as the top WR in the CSURAM88 Model for FD, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Eli Rogers
Rogers has now posted solid performances in two straight games, with a 100-yard outing followed by a touchdown. His volume is not completely secure, as he projects to be third in targets behind Bell and Brown most weeks. However, he has earned the trust of Roethlisberger and has high upside on a team with a huge implied total. He boasts a projected 20.8-point ceiling on DK, which is very good given his low price.
With Markus Wheaton (shoulder) now on the Injured Reserve, Rogers is locked into the slot role.
WR – Sammie Coates
Coates was demoted in Week 10, playing just two snaps. To put it lightly, Coates has been nonexistent since his Week 5 explosion against the Jets, turning 11 targets into one reception for four yards in his last four games. He is apparently playing with multiple finger injuries, which makes it even harder for a receiver who already can’t catch.
WR – Cobi Hamilton
In his “start” over Coates, Hamilton saw one target, which went for a 38-yard catch. It is hard to imagine bankable volume for Hamilton. After Antonio, Brown, and Eli get their targets, there may not be enough for Hamilton.
TE – Ladarius Green
Green (ankle) was activated last week and played 12 snaps. He saw four targets on timed downs and an additional target in the end zone on a two-point conversion attempt. He finished with three receptions for 30 yards. While Green is unlikely to be targeted on 33 percent of his snaps, the usage in his return was very nice to see. Expected to play more snaps soon, he’s the minimum price on both sites and makes for an interesting option against a defense allowing TEs to score the most fantasy points in the league.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Cody Kessler
Interestingly, Kessler was benched during the Browns’ Week 10 matchup against the Ravens. Kessler has mostly been decent as a rookie starter, at least protecting the ball from turnovers. Josh McCown threw two interceptions in his relief, which should all but guarantee that his leash in Week 11 will be a little longer.
Even against a Steelers defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA, Kessler isn’t a trustable option. He has thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game only once this season and is obviously a risk to be benched.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
Crowell gets an upgrade against the Steelers this week, as Pittsburgh just lost defensive lineman Cameron Heyward for the season. Heyward graded as Pro Football Focus’ 38th-best interior defender.
The bad news for Crowell is that he has only 26 total carries over his last three weeks. The good news is that he has seen 11 targets over that span. It is notable that in that span the Browns faced the defenses ranked eighth, third, and first in rush DVOA.
Crowell could make for an interesting tournament option coming off of his three poor performances. The Steelers defense has allowed 4.3 yards per carry this season. Crowell is nearly minimum price on DK and rates as the No. 3 DK RB in the CSURAM88 Model with a projected ownership of two to four percent.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr.
Duke now has seven carries and seven targets over the last two weeks, as Crowell has seemingly been eating into his receiving work. He has only two games this season with more than 50 receiving yards and continues to have volatile target volume.
Even in a matchup against Baltimore’s top-ranked rush defense (per DVOA), Duke saw only five targets in Week 2. He simply isn’t projectable on a weekly basis. However, he has now reached his lowest price on DK and could make for a GPP option against a Steelers defense that has struggled against the run.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
Pryor continues to operate as the top receiving option in Cleveland, but his volume has suffered a bit with Corey Coleman’s return. He has seen 16 targets over the last two weeks, with only 10 catches for 95 yards.
Pryor also draws the tougher of the two outside cornerback matchups this week, as he projects to run the majority of his routes at Ross Cockrell, per our Matchups tool. Cockrell grades as PFF’s 26th-best cornerback in coverage this season. However, Pryor’s salary has dropped below $6,000 on DK for the first time in five weeks, declining $500 in the past month. Per our Trends tool:
In a matchup in which the Browns project to trail against a weak overall passing defense, Pryor has a high ceiling projection of 27.7 DK points.
WR – Corey Coleman
Coleman has not yet overtaken Pryor in his return, but he does draw the better matchup this weekend. He projects to run the majority of his routes against PFF’s 84th-ranked coverage cornerback, Artie Burns. However, Coleman has only 58 receiving yards over two games since returning. That said, he is very reasonably priced on FD and boasts an 18-point ceiling projection. With a plus matchup, he is in consideration for guaranteed prize pools on FD.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
With Coleman back in the lineup, Hawkins now has five targets over the last two weeks. He has only caught two passes for 13 yards. Baby Hawk is a non-option behind Pryor, Coleman, and TE Gary Barnidge.
TE – Gary Barnidge
Barnidge has now seen only seven targets over the last two weeks and looks to be the third option with Coleman back. He should continue to see red-zone work, but that is not very encouraging on a team that spends little time in the red zone.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
