The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Packers at Redskins
The Redskins are 2.5-point favorites for their Week 11 matchup against the Packers. The Packers are currently implied to score 24 points, while the Redskins are currently implied to score 26.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers threw 51 passes last week and is now the quarterback of the league’s fourth-most pass-happy offense. Still, he’s historically struggled when playing away from Lambeau Field and things have gotten worse when he’s a road underdog:
As our Trends tool shows, Rodgers has posted a -0.40 Plus/Minus with 40 percent Consistency and has averaged 19.12 DraftKings points in his five games as a road underdog over the past three seasons. Adding to his troubles is a matchup against a Redskins defense that has allowed just 10 passing touchdowns this season – tied for the sixth-fewest in the league through 10 weeks. Rodgers is a tough sell in cash games this week but does have GPP appeal thanks to his fairly-low five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. He’s priced at $7,600 on DK and has a 27.4-point projected ceiling.
RB – James Starks
Starks was the Packers’ featured back last week, as he handled 55 snaps in his first game since Week 5. Considering Ty Montgomery played just 22 snaps in a blowout that should have been a good game-flow situation for him, it appears that Starks is the undisputed lead back in Green Bay. He played slightly better than he had earlier in the season, as he converted his 10 touches into 44 yards and a touchdown. Still, Starks didn’t show much burst or elusiveness, and he didn’t manage to break a single tackle, per PFF. That could change this week, as he faces a Redskins defense that has allowed a league-high 54.4 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months. Starks is priced at $5,500 on FanDuel with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
RB – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery hasn’t been listed on the injury report, but regardless of whether or not he’s still limited from his sickle cell issue, he played 22 snaps last week and hasn’t surpassed 10 touches in a game since Week 7. His ability to play running back and receiver gives him a high-touch floor when one of the Packers receivers or RBs misses time, but until then he’s a very risky play with his limited downfield opportunities and low number of snaps. Montgomery is priced at $5,200 on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a 2.1-point projected floor.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Yes, Josh Norman is a great cornerback who will likely be covering Jordy for a large portion of the game. No, that does not make him a must-fade:
Only five wide receivers with a salary over $7,000 on DK have faced the Redskins this season, but they’ve all performed well. Marvin Jones was the only one not to exceed his salary-based expectation, but he still finished with a respectable 4-94-0 line.
Back to Nelson. He’s averaged 15.5 targets over the past two weeks and has scored a touchdown in seven of his nine games this season. Nelson has been the best red-zone receiver in the league this season and he hasn’t been nearly as volatile as Rodgers has been on the road:
He’s priced at $7,800 on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and has a 21.8-point projected ceiling.
WR – Randall Cobb
The Redskins are the second-worst team in the league in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against No. 2 receivers. Not counting Norman, the Redskins don’t have a cornerback graded higher than 68th by PFF this season. Cobb’s role is the offense is as secure as ever, as he’s had at least eight targets in four of his past five games (and he played limited snaps with a hamstring injury in his lone game without eight targets). He’s priced at $6,500 on FD with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.25 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Davante Adams
As we discussed last week, Adams has consistently gotten seven to eight targets this season and has been one of the league’s most efficient players in terms of fantasy points and yards per target. He was targeted nine times last week and converted them into a 6-156-0 line. Excluding Week 8 (when Adams filled in for an injured Montgomery as the team’s receiving back), Adams has led the Packers with a 13.7 aDOT. He’s been Rodgers’ featured receiver this season when he’s wanted to throw downfield and Rodgers has thrown deep balls at a top-10 rate this season, per playerprofiler.com. Adams is priced at $6,700 on DK and faces a Redskins defense that has allowed 2.7 points above salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
TE – Richard Rodgers and Jared Cook
Rodgers has been targeted 17 times over the past two weeks, but he’s failed to score a touchdown and has gained just 91 yards. It’s been surprising to see his volume go up as the team’s WRs have gotten healthier, but he’s still a very risky play considering he’s averaging just 5.1 yards per target this season – the 77th-highest mark among all tight ends.
Cook (ankle) is officially questionable, but he practiced in full this week and is expected to play. If he’s ultimately able to suit up, it’s tough to imagine either tight end seeing more than five targets. Both tight ends currently have a median projection lower than 6.0 on DK and aren’t recommended fantasy options this week.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
Cousins has been playing very well recently. In his last four games, he has thrown seven touchdown passes while accumulating 321 yards and 22.6 DraftKings points per game. The Packers have allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns (18) to quarterbacks this season and have routinely been lit up by opposing QBs when playing away from Lambeau Field. They have allowed 22.78 DK points per game and a +5.66 Plus/Minus on the road in 2016.
Captain Kirk is currently a top-three rated QB in CSURAM88’s Player Model for DK. Cousins currently has a top-six projected floor (11.5) and ceiling (30) on DK, where he has an 88 percent Bargain Rating. He’s playable in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools on that site.
RB – Rob Kelley
Since taking over the starting RB spot for Matt Jones two weeks ago, Kelley has accumulated 43 carries and has not carried the ball less than 21 times in a game. Opportunity is everything for RBs and R-Kelley is getting volume in the nation’s capital. Importantly, Kelley has not fumbled on a single carry and has lost yardage on just two of his 60 carries this season. Per Pro Football Focus, his average of 3.6 yards after contact is the third-best rate among RBs this season. To quote Matthew Freedman, “As manna fed the Hebrews, so too does volume feed the winners of guaranteed prize pools.” With FantasyLabs projected ownership of just five to eight percent in FanDuel’s Sunday Million, Kelley is an excellent GPP play.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson has scored 8.1 FD points or less in four of his last five games. During that time, he has averaged 6.8 carries and 4.4 targets per game. He is a nice complementary player in real football, but for DFS purposes he’s best kept on the fantasy bench.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Crowder continues to produce consistently week after week. He has either scored a touchdown or accumulated over 100 yards receiving in four straight games, during which time he has averaged 19.3 DK points per game. Crowder has scored less than 11.8 DK points just once this season. The Packers have allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers (14) this season, and slot cornerback Micah Hyde‘s 58.8 PFF grade ranks him 79th at the position. Crowder has been exceeding his salary-based expectations all season long and he’s likely to do so again this week.
WR – Pierre Garcon
Garcon has quietly turned into a target monster over his last four games: He’s been targeted an average of 8.25 times per game. He has a Bargain Rating on DK of 80 percent and is currently a top-20 rated WR in all six of our Pro Models for DK. Per our Trends tool, comparably-priced WRs receiving similar monthly volume have traditionally generated a +2.93 Plus/Minus on DK. Garcon is playable in all formats as a salary-saving source of points.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Jackson missed last week’s game with a rotator cuff injury and is officially questionable for Week 11. He’s tentatively expected to play. Follow our NFL News feed for updates.
TE – Jordan Reed
The Packers have allowed the ninth-most catches (50), fourth-most receiving yards (647), and sixth-most fantasy points per game (9.9) to tight ends this season. Reed currently has the highest projected floor and ceiling among TEs on DK playing in the main slate. In five previous games with a projected ceiling of 20 DK points or higher, Reed has produced a +7.03 Plus/Minus with 60 percent Consistency. Reed’s FL projected ownership of nine to 12 percent in DK’s Millionaire Maker isn’t anywhere near chalky enough to fade. He’s in play in both cash and GPP formats.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
